PRO FARMER MIDWEST CROP TOUR STATE RESULTS...
Ohio corn yield: 110.5 bu./acre, 156.26 bu./acre in 2011, 3-year avg. 160.53 bu.
Ohio bean pod count in 3’X3' square: 1,033.72, 1,253.21 in 2011, 3-year avg. 1,240.85.
South Dakota corn yield: 74.26 bu./acre, 141.1 bu./acre in 2011, 3-year avg. 143.88 bu.
South Dakota pod count in 3’X3' square: 584.93, 1,106.66 in 2011, 3-year avg. 1,116.87.
Indiana corn yield: 113.25 bu./acre, 143.10 bu./acre in 2011, 3-year avg. 155.84 bu.
Indiana pod count in 3’X3' square: 1,033.24, 1,137.56 in 2011, 3-year avg. 1,190.37.
Nebraska corn yield: 131.79 bu./acre, 153.70 bu./acre in 2011, 3-year avg. 156.94 bu.
Nebraska pod count in 3’X3' square: 894.43, 1,286.48 in 2011, 3-year avg. 1,277.24.
PRELIMINARY DAY 3 OBSERVATIONS FROM THE CROP TOUR... The eastern leg of the 2012 Pro Farmer Midwest Crop Tour began in Bloomington, Illinois and travels to Iowa City, Iowa. The western leg of the Tour began in Nebraska City, Nebraska and travels to Spencer, Iowa. Tonight, final results for Illinois will be released on www.profarmer.com. Following are preliminary route reports from Tour leaders.
Western Tour Leader and Pro Farmer Editor Chip Flory has sampled in the Iowa counties of Page, Montgomery, Cass, Pottawattamie (District 7), Shelby and Audubon (District 4). His morning corn samples (bu. per acre) are: 81.1, 128.9, 184.2, 168.1, 169.8, 172.8 and 122.8 for an average of 147 bu. per acre. Chip reports that a field of 114-day corn was being harvested near Atlantic, Iowa. “But what we really need to be aware of is the kernel size. I would say that it’s conservative that smaller-than-normal kernel size will knock off another 5% from yield estimates,” says Chip.
On his route, soybean pod counts in a 3’X3' square were 526, 915, 1,951, 950, 861, 1,757 and 482 for an average of 1,063. “Pod counts have recovered some from South Dakota and Nebraska, but we’re probably coming in where we were a year-ago. Seed size is fine now, but they sure need a drink of water or risk shriveling up,” adds Chip.
Western Tour Consultant Jason Franck has pulled samples in the Iowa counties of Fremont, Mills, Pottawattamie (District 7), Shelby, Crawford, Ida (District 4) and Cherokee (District 1). Yields have ranged from 44.28 bu. to 178.51 bu. per acre, with an average of 135 bu. per acre. “As we moved into the southern part of Iowa, we saw more harvested acres. As we move north, stalk quality is one of the biggest issues as the plant is pushing everything it can toward the ear and robbing from the stalk to do that. As we have moved north, things are better and healthier and more consistent with better yield potential,” he says.
Soybean pod counts in a 3’X3' square ranged 336 to 1,500, with an average of 836.33 for Jason. Disappointed by the pod counts, Jason says, “Soybeans have been a shocker because we are surprised by the poor pod counts. The cluster of pods on the plants simply are not there. While fields still look fairly good, the numbers don’t represent what we are seeing from the road. It’s a real disappointment in the soybean fields today,” he says.
Eastern Tour Leader and Pro Farmer Senior Market Analyst Brian Grete has sampled in the Illinois counties of McLean, Woodford, Tazewell, Stark, Marshall (District 4) and Bureau (District 1). He reports yields ranging 73 bu. to 209.5 bu. per acre for an average around 137.3 bu. per acre. “We saw some better stuff than last year, but still not up to average standards,” says Brian. “We saw some good, solid corn fields, but the bulk of them were below what you would expect from this area. Standability is a major issue, and there will be some fields that won’t be able to harvest what we are finding today.”
Soybean pod counts in a 3’X3' square ranged 518 to 2,361, for an average around 892. We’re seeing a little poorer soybeans in relation to the corn potential. I’m not sure what is causing that, but the beans simply aren’t handling the stress. I think it’s a situation where just a few pockets of rain were seen, but of course it’s generally been dry,” he says.
Eastern Tour Consultant Mark Bernard has sampled in the Illinois counties of Christian, Montgomery, Macoupin, Greene, Scott and Pike (District 6). Corn samples have ranged 70 bu. to 201 bu. per acre, with an average around 145 bu. per acre. “A lot of corn that has been under some extreme drought stress -- especially south of Decatur -- is being harvested. And as we hit the Iowa border, we are still seeing some fields that are being harvested. Kernel depth doesn’t appear to be very great in a lot of cases.”
Soybean pod counts in a 3’X3' square range 688 to 1,298, with an average around 1,010. “We are really seeing some nice looking bean fields, and they just received some timely rains to improve plant health and encourage more pods,” he says. “It looks like a fairly decent bean crop considering the drought stress it has been under.”
BEEF AND PORK IN COLD STORAGE BELOW EXPECTATIONS. USDA reports at the end of July there were 455.743 million lbs. of beef in frozen storage and pork stocks were at 546.551 million lbs -- both coming in below traders’ expectations. But these figures still represent at 10% and 20% increase from year-ago, respectively.
Total frozen poultry stocks were up 1% from last month, but down 6% from year-ago. Total red meat supplies in freezers are down 5% from last month, but up 15% from year-ago.
STATS CANADA ISSUES FIRST SURVEY-BASED CROP ESTIMATES... Statistics Canada says it expects a wheat crop of 27.013 million metric tons (MMT), which came in line with traders’ pre-report expectations of 27.0 MMT. However, its canola projection of 15.41 MMT came in below expectations of 16.4 MMT, but the tally still represents potential for a record crop. The agency notes, “Overall, weather conditions in the West in 2012 have been closer to normal, following two years of excess moisture conditions in parts of Manitoba and Saskatchewan.”
Pro Farmer Canada Editor Mike Jubinville says while Western Canada has avoided intense drought conditions seen in the U.S. Midwest, Russia and Eastern Canada, crop diseases like aster yellows and sclerotinia have whittled down the potential for the country’s canola crop. “This news is bullish for the canola market,” he says, although he notes the wheat crop data is “negligible” for the market. More report details are available at this link.
MANY FOMC MEMBERS SEE MORE EASING NECESSARY ‘SOON’... The Federal Open Market Committee today released the minutes to its July 31 to Aug. 1 meeting, which included the following statement: “Many members judged that additional monetary accommodation would likely be warranted fairly soon unless incoming information pointed to a substantial and sustainable strengthening in the pace of the economic recovery.” The market took this as a signs more stimulus measures are coming -- soon -- though the Fed currently remains in wait-and-see mode.
At the meeting members considered more economic stimulus options, such as keeping the federal funds rate near zero for an even longer period than currently indicated (through 2014) or embarking on a new round of asset purchases with the goal of pushing down long-term interest rates and encouraging investment.
The Fed reiterated that it stands ready to provide more accommodation as needed and noted slowed economic recovery in 2012. It says it expects moderate growth over the coming quarters for the unemployment rate to fall “slowly.”
CBO WARNS OF RECESSION DUE TO ‘FISCAL CLIFF’... If the expiring 2001 and 2003 tax cuts and spending reductions start under terms of the budget agreement reached in 2011 are allowed to unfold, the U.S. economy will be pushed into recession in 2013, according to an update from the Congressional Budget Office (CBO). The office also updated its baseline projections taking into account the scheduled policy changes and others. They follow:
The deficit will shrink to an estimated $641 billion in fiscal year 2013 (or 4.0% of GDP), almost $500 billion less than the shortfall in 2012.
Such fiscal tightening will lead to economic conditions in 2013 that will probably be considered a recession, with real GDP declining by 0.5% between the fourth quarter of 2012 and the fourth quarter of 2013 and the unemployment rate rising to about 9% in the second half of calendar year 2013.
Because of the large amount of unused resources in the economy and other factors, the rate of inflation (as measured by the personal consumption expenditures, or PCE, price index) will remain low in 2013. In addition, interest rates on Treasury securities are expected to be very low next year.
For the remainder of 2012, CBO expects economic recovery to continue at a modest pace with GDP growing at an annual rate of about 2.25%, compared to 1.75% growth the first half of the year. CBO expects unemployment to remain above 8% the rest of the year and for inflation to remain low.
For fiscal year 2012 (which ends on Sept. 30), CBO estimates the federal budget deficit will total $1.1 trillion, or 7.3% of GDP, marking the fourth year in a row with a deficit of more than $1 trillion. See the full story online for more analysis of CBO’s projections.
