Evening Report (VIP) – August 27, 2012

CORN CONDITION SLIPS AS CROP MATURITY ADVANCES... It’s not much of a surprise to see the condition of the corn crop decline ahead of harvest, but given the already-tough growing season, it’s still notable, as USDA now rates 52% of the crop in “poor” to “very poor” shape, which is up one percentage point from last week.

USDA reports as of Sunday, 26% of the corn crop was mature compared to 16% last week and 8% on average. Illinois reports 44% is mature (10% on average); Indiana is at 17% (5% on average); and Iowa is 27% mature (3% on average). Meanwhile, 6% of the crop is harvested compared to 4% last week and 2% on average.

SOYBEAN CONDITION DECLINES... USDA reports the condition of the soybean crop slipped modestly, with 30% rated “good” to “excellent,” which is down one percentage point from the previous week. USDA rates 38% of the crop in “poor” to “very poor” shape, which is up one percentage point from last week.

Soybeans

As of Sunday, USDA reports 96% of the crop is setting pods compared to 91% last week and on average. Meanwhile, 8% of the crop is dropping leaves versus 4% last week and on average -- suggesting the crop is about a week ahead of normal. Illinois doesn’t have any crop dropping leaves compared to 2% on average, with Indiana at 11% (4% on average) and Iowa at 1% (1% on average).

SPRING WHEAT HARVEST WINDING DOWN... USDA reports 89% of the spring wheat crop has been harvested, which compares to 79% last week and 57% on average. Harvest is complete in Minnesota and South Dakota, with North Dakota at 96% (53% on average) and Montana at 73% (46% on average). Idaho has 66% of the crop harvested (44% on average) and Washington is at 63% (61% on average).

COTTON CONDITION IMPROVES SLIGHTLY... USDA reports the condition of the cotton crop improved slightly from last week, with 43% rated “good” to “excellent,” which is up two percentage points from the previous week.

The mid-South is in line for heavy rains the next few days as Tropical Storm Isaac makes its way to the region. While this will help relieve drought conditions, the rains come too late and could cause quality losses given 24% of the nation’s crop has bolls open. USDA reports as of Sunday that Mississippi has 55% of bolls open (34% on average) and Louisiana is at 61% (55% on average).

NWS 6-10 DAY FORECAST WARM AND WETTER-THAN-NORMAL... The National Weather Service (NWS) forecast for September 2-6 calls for above-normal temps and precip for the Corn Belt. The rains could help some filling soybeans, although benefits will be limited as this year’s crop is more advanced than normal. Above-normal rains will slow early harvest efforts. Click here for related maps.

REQUEST FOR RFS COMMENTS STILL NOT OFFICIAL... Contrary to Friday’s public inspections notice and what we reported in “First Thing Today,” today’s Federal Register does not contain an Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) request for public comment relative to pleas to waive ethanol mandates under the Renewable Fuels Standard.

Meanwhile, Texas Governor Rick Perry late last week in a letter to EPA Administrator Lisa Jackson, added Texas to the states supporting a partial waiver. In an official statement Perry said: “The RFS may have been a well-intentioned effort to move our country toward energy independence, but it has, predictably, done more harm than good. Not only is it driving up grocery prices for all families, it is also putting increasing strain on business. Good intentions and laudable goals are small compensation to the families, farmers and ranchers who are being hurt by the federal government’s efforts to trade food for fuel. Any government mandate that benefits one industry to the detriment of millions of consumers is bad policy.”

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