Evening Report (VIP) – September 10, 2012

CORN HARVEST REMAINS RECORD QUICK... USDA reports 15% of the nation’s corn crop was harvested as of Sunday compared to 10% last week and 5% on average. This is slightly behind traders’ expectations for 17% to be harvested, but still a record for this date. Illinois has 21% harvested (6% on average); Indiana is at 9% (3% on average); Iowa is at 10% (1% on average); Nebraska is at 12% (1% on average); and both Ohio and Minnesota have 2% harvested (0% on average).

The condition of the corn crop is unchanged from last week, with just 22% of the crop in “good” to “excellent” shape.

SOYBEAN CONDITION IMPROVES SLIGHTLY... USDA reports that 32% of the soybean crop is rated “good” to “excellent,” which is up two percentage points from last week.

USDA reports as of Sunday that 4% of the soybean crop has been harvested compared to 2% on average. Illinois and Indiana have 1% of the crop cut, which is in line with the five-year average. No harvest has been reported in Iowa.

WINTER WHEAT PLANTING UNDERWAY... USDA reports as of Sunday, 4% of the winter wheat crop had been planted compared to 6% on average. Kansas has 2% seeded (3% on average); Oklahoma is at 3% (4% on average); and Texas is at 3% (4% on average).

COTTON CONDITION SLIPS SLIGHTLY... USDA reports the condition of the cotton crop declined slightly, with 41% in “good” to “excellent” condition, down one percentage point from last week.

USDA reports as of Sunday that 4% of the cotton crop was harvested compared to 5% on average. Leading the way is Louisiana where 13% has been harvested (10% on average), followed by Texas at 9% (11% on average) and Arizona with 8% (8% on average).

SMALLER CORN AND SOYBEAN CROP ESTIMATES EXPECTED... According to pre-report expectations compiled by Dow Jones newswire, traders look for the saying “small crops get smaller” to be realized when USDA releases its September Crop Production Report on Wednesday at 7:30 a.m. CT. The corn crop is guessed at 10.403 billion bu. with the corn yield expected to be cut to 120.6 bu. per acre from the August estimate of 123.4 bu. per acre last month. For soybeans, traders expect the crop to come in at 2.638 billion bu., with the national average yield seen declining to 35.5 bu. per acre from 36.1 bu. per acre last month.

In the Supply & Demand Report, traders look for USDA to lower its 2011-12 and 2012-13 corn and soybean carryover forecasts slightly, while 2012-13 wheat carryover is expected up slightly from last month. Click here for more.

WEATHER VARIED IN SOUTH AMERICA... Meteorologist Gail Martell of MartellCropProjections.com says a very odd weather pattern has emerged in South America, as Argentina is receiving extremely heavy rainfall, while Rio Grande do Sul and Parana in Brazil are in the midst of a severe drought. Martell says due to heavy rains in Argentina, corn planting may be delayed. Click here for more.

NWS 6-10 DAY: SEASONAL CONDITIONS FOR MIDWEST... The National Weather Service (NWS) forecast for September 16-20 calls for cooler- and drier-than-usual conditions across most of the Corn Belt, which should keep harvest active. But drier conditions in the Central and Southern Plains are not welcome as rains are needed for establishment of the winter wheat crop. Click here to view related maps.