CONSULTANT LEAVES U.S. CROP ESTIMATES UNCHANGED... Crop consultant Dr. Michael Cordonnier has left his U.S. corn and soybean yield and crop estimates unchanged from last week, saying it will be difficult for even USDA to come up with an accurate read on this year’s production until harvest is complete due to the variability of this year’s drought damage. Dr. Cordonnier currently estimates the corn crop at 9.87 billion bu. with a yield of 119 bu. per acre and pegs the soybean crop at 2.52 billion bu. with a yield of 34.5 bu. per acre.
EARLY GROWING SEASON TURNS ‘WORRISOME’ IN SOUTH AMERICA... Dr. Cordonnier says the early growing season in South America is a little more worrisome due to several weeks of dry conditions in central Brazil and extremely wet conditions in Argentina that have resulted in widespread flooding. He says estimates are that as much as 500,000 acres in Argentina have been affected by flooding and it will take several weeks for waters to recede.
“Farmers in Argentina would like to have already started planting their 2012-13 corn crop, but in the most severely flooded areas, it will take several weeks of dry weather before planting could start and that’s if there is no additional rainfall,” says Dr. Cordonnier. “Since corn is the first crop planted in Argentina, it’s probably unlikely that all the intended corn acreage in the region will end up being planted to corn. Therefore, some of the non-planted corn acreage could be switched to soybeans.”
Dr. Cordonnier says in central Brazil the situation is just the opposite, as it has been extremely hot and dry. “The last rain in parts of northern Mato Grosso were about 115 days ago and there is no rain in the near-term forecast,” he says. “Farmers in Mato Grosso are allowed to start planting their 2012-13 soybean crop Sept. 15, but they won’t plant until there is adequate soil moisture to ensure germination and stand establishment.”
A delay in soybean planting in Brazil won’t have serious yield implications unless it’s delayed three to four weeks, but it could be more important to the safrinha (second-crop) corn crop in Brazil. It’s important that Mato Grosso farmers get soybeans planted in a timely manner to allow enough time to get safrinha corn planted by Feb. 20, says Dr. Cordonnier.
SSTS CLOSE TO EL NINO THRESHOLD... The Australian Bureau of Meteorology says tropical Pacific Ocean sea surface temperatures (SSTs) remain at values close to El Nino thresholds, but the reading of the Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) is within neutral values. The bureau says weather models suggest SSTs will remain close to El Nino thresholds before returning to neutral in late 2012 or early 2013 -- signaling if ever realized, this El Nino event will be short. Still, the bureau says the trend toward El Nino favors below-average rainfall over much of Australia, which would be harmful for the winter wheat crop. Link to related story on ABARES’ crop estimates.
VILSACK REITERATES SUPPORT FOR ETHANOL... Speaking at a Growth Ethanol meeting in Washington, D.C., USDA Secretary Vilsack reiterated his support for the biofuels industry and said “the market is responding as it should” to high corn prices and said there is no change “in our support for the industry.” Vilsack also says he supports any opposition to any change in the Renewable Fuels Standard.
HOUSE FARM BILL CHATTER... In “First Thing Today” we reported that House Ag Committee Chairman Frank Lucas (R-Okla.) says he has been “like a rash” to House leaders with his efforts to get them to schedule floor time for the farm bill his committee passed earlier this summer. House Majority Whip Kevin McCarthy (R-Calif.) has echoed these sentiments.
Also of note, Lucas says a one-year extension of the 2008 Farm Bill, which expires at the end of September, may be necessary even if a new bill is passed before the November elections -- which is unlikely as there are only eight scheduled days of House activity in September. Senate Ag Panel Ranking Member Pat Roberts (R-Kan.) also believes an extension is needed. A short-term extension of the bill in a continuing budget resolution to keep the government running is a possibility.
Senate Ag Committee Chairwoman Debbie Stabenow (D-Mich) also called on the House to approve the version of the bill approved by the House Ag Committee earlier this summer. She also insisted that “the votes are there” for passage and that it wouldn’t take much time to complete the measure. In contrast to Roberts, she did not want to discuss an extension to the current Farm Bill.
The six-week lame-duck session of Congress following the elections is viewed as the next best opportunity to complete the farm bill, but a 2013 scenario -- though not desirable to farm-state lawmakers -- is not being ruled out. Click here for more details.
