The amount growers pay each year for nutrient varies as a percentage of new-crop revenue based on a number of variables. General expectations are that NPK pricing resistance begins to play a role at 18% of expected new-crop revenue. 2009 shows the highest percentage of corn revenue dedicated to NPK in the last five years at 19.2%.
A rise above 18% of expected new-crop revenue suggests that old-crop revenue was sufficient to fund forward booked nutrient purchases. 2008 exhibited a hard spike both in corn prices and in nutrient prices, but savvy growers had their NPK at least partially booked before the upward swing.
| Year | Avg. Yield | Corn Revenue/acre | NPK/acre | NPK % of Revenue |
| 2009 | 164 bu/a | $541.20 | $103.40 | 19.2% |
| 2010 | 152 Bu/a | $749.36 | $86.00 | 11.5% |
| 2011 | 147 Bu/a | $877.59 | $123.00 | 10.5% |
| 2012 | 126 Bu/a | $863.11 | $123.40 | 14.3% |
| 2013F | 150 Bu/a | $900.00 | $147.20 | 16.4% |
| 5 year Avg. | 147.8 Bu/a | $786.25 | $116.60 | 14.9% |
Our expectations remain in the 16-17% range at current pricing levels. But a spike in corn later this summer could draft nutrient pricing to the upside if drought conditions continue to plague yield expectations this year.
The above data begins in March 2009 and monitors the price per acre of NPK as a percent of March corn revenue as reported by USDA. The 2013F (2013 forecast) projections are ProFarmer’s current expectations which are at 150 Bu/acre corn yield at $6.25/Bu
