Statistics Canada says Prairie farmers are planning on a record harvest of canola, as well as higher volumes of barley, oats and wheat compared with 2010. Farmers in Ontario and Quebec anticipate a smaller crop of corn for grain in 2011.
In the West, Stats Canada says farmers reported that recent hot, sunny weather may temper production losses that had been anticipated earlier because of a damp, late spring with persistent wet conditions in many areas. “In Ontario and Quebec, hot, dry conditions with random precipitation had farmers concerned about crop yields for both grain corn and soybeans in 2011,” it states.
Total wheat production on the Prairies is expected to reach 21.5 million metric tons (MMT), up from 21.0 MMT produced in 2010.
Farmers estimate their average yield will be 40.0 bu. per acre, the same as 2010. Harvested area is estimated at 19.8 million acres, up 2.6%. Saskatchewan and Alberta farmers expect increased production of wheat in 2011. In Manitoba, however, farmers anticipate a 30.3% decline (-988 600 tons) to 2.3 MMT, the result of adverse weather conditions.
| Crop | 2009 (final) | 2010 (final) | July 2011p | 2009 to 2010 | 2010 to July 2011 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| thousands of tonnes | % change | ||||
| Total wheat | 26 848 | 23 167 | 24 076 | -13.7 | 3.9 |
| Spring wheat | 18 452 | 17 485 | 17 365 | -5.2 | -0.7 |
| Durum wheat | 5 400 | 3 025 | 3 749 | -44.0 | 23.9 |
| Winter wheat | 2 996 | 2 657 | 2 962 | -11.3 | 11.5 |
| canola | 12 417 | 11 866 | 13 193 | -4.4 | 11.2 |
| Grain corn | 9 561 | 11 715 | 9 983 | 22.5 | -14.8 |
| Barley | 9 517 | 7 605 | 8 274 | -20.1 | 8.8 |
| Soybeans | 3 507 | 4 345 | 3 862 | 23.9 | -11.1 |
| Oats | 2 906 | 2 298 | 2 886 | -20.9 | 25.6 |
| Flaxseed | 930 | 423 | 365 | -54.5 | -13.7 |
Prairie farmers expect canola production will increase 10.9% to a record 13.0 MMT “This would be the result of a record area to be harvested of 17.8 million acres and a strong yield of 32.3 Bu per acre,” it says.
In Saskatchewan, farmers anticipate a potential record production of 6.5 MMT This would be the result of a record area to be harvested of 9.2 million acres, an increase of 1.8 million acres from 2010.
Alberta farmers expect to produce a record 4.8 MMT of canola, up 6.1% from 2010. Farmers predict a record area to be harvested of 6.0 million acres, up 10.2% from 2010.
However, in Manitoba, farmers anticipate canola production could fall 21.7% to 1.7 MMT in 2011, the result of decreases in both expected yield and area to be harvested.
In Quebec, total corn for grain production is anticipated to be 2.9 MMT, down 13.8% (-470 000 tons) from 3.4 MMT in 2010. This drop would be the result of an expected decline in yield of 19.3 Bu per acre from 2010.
In Ontario, production estimates for corn for grain are expected to decrease 14.8% to 6.6 MMT, the result of an anticipated decline in yield of 25.0 bu per acre. The harvested area is expected to be virtually unchanged from 2010 at 1.9 million acres.
Soybean production in Canada is expected to decline 11.1% to just under 3.9 MMT Quebec and Ontario account for roughly 90% of total soybean production.
Juli says: Estimates largely came within traders’ expectations and Pro Farmer Canada Editor Mike Juvinville says the report shouldn’t have much of an impact on prices near-term.
