TODAY ON U.S. FARM REPORT
APRIL 16-17, 2016
OPENING HEADLINES:
USDA REPORT HAS FEW SURPRISES:
NOW FOR THE MARKET RELATED NEWS, USDA RELEASING ITS FIRST REPORT SINCE THE MARCH 31 ACREAGE NUMBERS THAT WERE A HUGE MARKET MOVER. BUT THIS TIME, THERE WEREN’T MANY BIG SURPRISES. USDA INCREASING OLD CROP CORN AND WHEAT CARRYOVER, WHILE CUTTING SOYBEANS AND COTTON CARRYOVER FROM LAST MONTH. THE AGENCY PUTTING THE CORN CARRYOVER FOR THE 2015 TO 2016 YEAR AT 1 POINT 86 BILLION BUSHELS. WHEAT IS NOW AT 976 MILLION BUSHELS. MEANWHILE, SOYBEAN CARRYOVER NOW DOW 15 MILLION BUSHELS TO 445 MILLION. AND COTTON SITS AT 3 PONT 5 MILLION BALES. DOWN FROM THE AGECY’S MARCH PROJECTION OF 3 POINT 6 MILLION. AS WE’VE BEEN DISCUSSING IN OUR ROUNDTABLES, GRETE SAYS THE BIGGER FOCUS IS ON WEATHER AND PLANTING CONDITIONS.
WHEAT STOCKS:
MEANWHILE, GLOBAL WHEAT STOCKPILES KEEP GROWING AS CHINA CUTS BACK ITS WHEAT USAGE. ANOTHER FACTOR WEIGHING ON PRICES-- THE POSSIBIITY OF THE E-U HARVESTING AN EVEN BIGGER CROP. CHINA IS THE WORLD’S LARGEST WHEAT CONSUMER AND USDA PROJECTING THIS WEEK USE WILL FALL 112 MILLION TONS. THAT’S LARGELY ON A REDUCTION IN FEED USEAGE. GOOD PLANTING CONDITIONS ARE HELPING RICE STEAL SOME ACRES THIS YEAR. U-S FARMERS ARE EXPECTED TO PLANT 17 PERCENT MORE RICE ACRES THIS YEAR. THAT WOULD PUT THE CROP AT JUST OVER 3 MILLION ACREST HIS YEAR. MUCH OF THAT BOOST COMING FROM TEXAS, MISSISSIPPI AND ARKANSAS. CHANGE IN POLICY COULD HALT CORN STOCKS IN CHINA:
AS THE WORLD’S CORN STOCKS GROW, CHINA IS ESTIMATED TO HOLD MORE THAN HALF OF THOSE RESERVES. BUT A CHANGE IN POLICY COULD CUT CORN STOCKS IN THE COUNTRY FOR THE FIRST TIME IN 6 YEARS. THE USDA BEIJING BUREAU ESTIMATES CORN INVENTORIES WILL FALL BY 6 MILLION TONNES THIS YEAR. THAT’S AS THE GUARENTEED CORN PRICE, WHICH WAS OVER 7 DOLLARS LAST YEAR, NO LONGER EXISTS. THE COUNTRY IS ALSO LOOKING TO START EXPORTING SOME OF THAT GRAIN.
UNFAIR EXPORT SUBSIDIES TERMINATED:
CHINA IS TERMINATING PART OF ITS’ EXPORT SUBSIDIES THAT THE U-S AND WORLD TRADE ORGANIZATION DEEMED UNFAIR. THAT’S THANKS TO AN AGREEMENT BETWEEN THE U-S AND CHINA SIGNED THIS WEEK. U-S TRADE REPRESEANTIVE MICHAEL FROMAN SAYS THE U-S ORIGINALLY FILED A DISPUTE WITH THE WORLD TRADE ORGANIZATION, AS CHINA’S COMPLEX PRACTICES VIOLATED INTERNATIONAL TRADE RULES. LA NINA WATCH THIS WEEK:
AS THE WEATHER TALKS SHIFT FROM EL NINO TO LA NINA, BOTH THE CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER AND THE AUSTRALIAN BUREAU OF METEOROLGY ISSUING A LA NINA WATCH THIS WEEK. CPC SAYS PUTS THE CHANCE OF LA NINA AT 60 PERCENT FROM JULY TO SEPTEMBER. AND ODDS INCREASE TO 70 PERCENT BY WINTER. C-P-C SAYS A LA NINA ISN’T GUARENTEED, BUT CHANGES IN THE PACIFIC OCEAN AND ATMOSPHERE ARE FUELING THE HIGHER ODDS.
DRIER CONDITIONS EXPECTED WITH LA NINA:
LA NINA TYPICALLY BRINGS DRIER CONDITIONS TONORTH AMERICA, BUT ALSO WIDESPREAD FLOODS AND HURRICANES TO OTHER PARTS OF THE GLOBE.
NATIONAL WEATHER:
THOSE ARE THE HEADLINES...METEOROLOGIST MIKE HOFFMAN JOINS US NOW WITH WEATHER.. MIKE, MORE TALKS OF LA NINA. IS THE SHIFT AWAY FROM EL NINO CHANGING OUR WEATHER PATTERNS YET? THANKS, TYNE. WELL, IT’S BEGINNING TO, BUT REALLY IT IS STILL A DECENT EL NINO OUT THERE SO THAT’S STILL THE BIG FACTOR, BUT IT WILL LOSE ITS INFLUENCE OVER THE NEXT THREE OR FOUR MONTHS. AN IMMEDIATE CONCERN IS AN EXPANDING DRY AREA, DESPITE KIND OF A WET PATTERN IN THE EAST THESE AREAS: SOUTHERN KANSAS, ESPECIALLY NORTHWESTERN OKLAHOMA, PANHANDLE OF TEXAS HAVE BEEN MISSING ALL THE RAIN. NOW YOU ARE NOT GOING TO EARLY THIS WEEK, BUT IN THE MEANTIME YOU CAN SEE THAT THE DROUGHT MONITOR HAS EXPANDED WITH A COUPLE OF SPOTS OF SEVERE DROUGHT SHOWING UP. TEASE:
THANKS, MIKE. WHEN WE COME BACK, NAOMI BLOHM AND PETER MEYER DISCUSS STOCKS, DAIRY PRICES AND MORE.
ROUNDTABLE 1
ROUNDTABLE 2
MARKETS NOW
JOHN’S WORLD:
IN ADDITION TO BEING A FARMER, A COMMENTATOR, A GRANDPA AND THE LIST GOES ON... JOHN IS ALSO A MASTERFUL WOODWORKER, A HOBBY THAT DOESN’T GO UNNOTICED TO MANY OF YOU. JUST FOR THE HECK OF IT, I THOUGHT I WOULD SHOW YOU WHAT I’VE BEEN WORKING ON HERE IN MY WOODSHOP. SINCE WE MOVED MY COMMENTARIES HERE, I HAVE DISCOVERED THAT WHILE I AM DRONING ON ABOUT SERIOUS AG MATTERS, MORE THAN A FEW OF YOU ARE CHECKING OUT MY TOOLS AND ESPECIALLY PROJECTS I AM WORKING ON.
TEASE:
THAT’S PRETTY IMPRESSIVE, JOHN. THANKS. UP NEXT, IT’S BEEN A YEAR SINCE AVIAN FLU WIPED OUT POULTRY BARNS ACROSS THE MIDWEST. WE’LL SHOW YOU HOW RECOVERY IS GOING AND WHY THE INDUSTRY SAYS IT’S BETTER PREPARED IF ANOTHER OUTBREAK SHOULD HIT.
SECOND HALF OPENING HEADLINES:
FROM THE STUDIOS OF FARM JOURNAL BROADCAST, THIS IS U.S. FARM REPORT. WELCOME BACK TO U-S FARM REPORT. WE HAVE MUCH MORE AHEAD OVER THE NEXT 30 MINUTES. AS THE THREAT OF AVIAN FLU LOOMS, WE SHOW YOU WHY INDIANA PROVED THE INDUSTRY IS BETTER PREPARED. WE’RE ON THE ROAD WITH MACHINERY PETE TO SEE HOW LIVESTOCK IS DRIVING EQUIPMENT TRENDS IN MINNESOTA. AND IN CUSTOMER SUPPORT, A VIEWER WANTS TO KNOW WHERE’S THE CANADIAN LOVE.
FARM INCOME HURTS:
NOW FOR THE HEADLINES, AS U.S. NET FARM INCOME IS ON TRACK TO POST IT’S LOWEST MARK IN MORE THAN A DECADE, USDA SHOWS SUBSIDY PAYMENTS COULD SUPPLY ABOUT A QUARTER OF A FARMER’S INCOME THIS YEAR. USDA RELEASING ITS 2016 ESTIMATES FOR SUPPORT FROM FARM PROGRAMS. USDA PEGGING PAYOUTS AT 13 POINT 9 BILLION DOLLARS. IF IT HOLDS TRUE, THAT WOULD BE ABOUT 25 PERCENT OF FARMER’S PROFITS. ITS THE BIGGEST PAYOUT AND HIGHEST RATIO IN A DECADE...AS FARMERS PACE TO EARN ABOUT HALF OF WHAT THEY MADE JUST THREE YEARS AGO. THE FARM PROGRAMS NOW EXCEEDING ORIGINAL PROJECTIONS WHEN APPROVED BY LAW MAKERS TWO YEARS AGO. HEARING OVER STATE OF THE FARM ECONOMY:
ECONOMISTS SAY THESE ECONOMIC HARDHIPS ARE RIPPLING THROUGH THE FARM ECONOMY IT’S THOSE PAYMENTS THAT COULD HELP FARMERS DURING THE CURRENT DOWNTURN IN COMMODITY PRICES. AT LEAST THAT’S WHAT AMERICAN FARM BUREAU PRESIDENT ZIPPY DUVALL TOLD A HOUSE SUBCOMMITTEE THIS WEEK DURING A HEARING OVER THE STATE OF THE FARM ECONOMY. DUVALL TOLD CONGRESS AS FARMERS FACE INCREASED FINANCIAL PRESSURE, TRADE AND SAFETY NET PROGRAMS WILL BECOME EVEN MORE CRUCIAL. CROP INSURANCE NEEDS TO BE FIXED, ARGUES FARM UNION PRESIDENT:
NATIONAL FARMERS UNION PRESIDENT ROGER JOHNSON ALSO TESTIFYING, SAYING CROP INSURANCE ISN’T WORKING FOR GROWERS RIGHT NOW.
DAIRY SAFETY NET EXPANDS:
USDA SAYS ITS EXPANDING THE DAIRY SAFETY NET PROGRAM FOR OPERATIONS BRINGING ON THE NEXT GENERATION. AG SECRETARY VISLACK SAYS FARMS IN THE MARGIN PROTECTION PROGRAM CAN NOW UPDATE THEIR PRODUCTION HISTORY WAS AN ELIGIBLE FAMILY MEMBER JOINS. THE SECREATRY HOPES THE MOVE WILL HELP NEW DAIRY FARMERS GET STARTED.
NATIONAL WEATHER:
THAT’S IT FOR NEWS...METEOROLOGIST MIKE HOFFMAN GIVES US A GLIMPSE OF THE LONG RANGE FORECAST. MIKE, WE KEEP HEARING FROM VIEWERS IN THE WEST WHO COULD REALLY USE SOME RAIN.
THANKS, TYNE.
A LOOK AT HOW INDUSTRIES ARE PREPARING FOR FUTURE AVIAN FLU OUTBREAK:
IT’S BEEN ONE YEAR SINCE THE MASSIVE AVIAN FLU OUTBREAK SPREAD ACROSSED IOWA AND MINNESOTA. IT HIT SO FAST WITH SOME CALLING IT THE WORST ANIMAL DISEASE OUTBREAK IN IOWA’S HISTORY. POULTRY PRODUCERS WERE CRITICAL OF THE AMOUNT OF TIME IT TOOK AGENCIES TO RESPOND. IN THIS FARM JOURNAL REPORT, WE SHOW YOU WHILE THE THREAT STILL LOOMS, THE RECENT OUBREAK IN INDIANA PROVES FROM AGENCY OFFICIALS TO PRODUCERS, EVERYONE IS BETTER PREPARED.
PREPARATION IN THE FACE OF AN OUTBREAK:
SHE SAYS IT WAS THAT QUICK ACTION THAT ALLOWED THE BOARD OF ANIMAL HEALTH TO START EMERGENCY RESPONSE. .
NEW PROTOCOL WILL PART OF PLAN TO DECREASE CHANCE OF OUTBREAK:
KROUSE SAYS SINCE THE LARGE OUTBREAK A YEAR AGO, THEY RAMPED UP BIOSECRUITY EFFORTS ON THEIR OWN FARM.
UP NEXT, JOHN PHIPPS.
CUSTOMER SUPPORT:
JOHN PHIPPS ANSWERS A QUESTION FROM A VIEWER IN CANADA WONDERING WHY OUR COVERAGE IS MAINLY FOCUSED ON THE U-S. JOHN. WE HAVE A COMMENT FROM A NEIGHBOR TO THE NORTH: “GREETINGS FROM SOUTHERN ALBERTA! TEMPERATURES ARE MUCH ABOVE NORMAL AND WE ARE ANXIOUSLY AWAITING SOME SORT OF SIGNIFICANT MOISTURE EVENT. BEING A LONG TIME US FARM REPORT VIEWER, I HAVE A SIMPLE QUESTION FOR MIKE HOFFMAN; WHY DO YOUR WEATHER MAPS STOP AT THE CANADIAN BORDER? IT WOULD BE USEFUL TO YOUR CANADIAN VIEWERS IF YOU EXTENDED THE MAPS TO AT LEAST THE SOUTHERN HALF OF CANADA.” PAT PITTMAN PAT, THANKS FOR WATCHING AND FOR YOUR QUESTION. SEND ME AN ADDRESS FOR YOUR PRICELESS COLLECTOR EDITION MUG. THIS COMPLAINT ABOUT WEATHER MAPS HAS COME UP BEFORE. AND LIKE MOST ISSUES IT’S MORE COMPLICATED THAN IT MIGHT SEEM.
MACHINERY PETE:
THANKS, JOHN. DESPITE A DROP IN LIVESTOCK PRICES, THAT INDUSTRY IS DRIVING SOLID BUYING INTEREST IN MINNESOTA. WE’RE ON THE ROAD WITH MACHINERY PETE NEXT.
MACHINERY PETE:
WE’RE CONTINUING OUR SERIES CALLED ON THE ROAD WITH MACHINERY PETE, GIVING YOU A GLIMPSE AT EQUIPMENT TRENDS NATIONWIDE. THIS WEEK, WE’RE HEADING BACK TO SAUK CENTRE, MINNESOTA TO SHOW HOW AN AREA HEAVY IN LIVESTOCK IS DRIVING SOLID EQUIPMENT VALUES IN 2016.
TEASE:
WHEN WE COME BACK, TRACTOR TALES AND OUR COUNTRY CHURCH SALUTE...PLEASE STAY WITH US.
TRACTOR TALES:
WELCOME BACK TO TRACTOR TALES. WE RECEIVED SOME PHOTOS FROM TYLER WALTON IN LIBERTY ILLINOIS. THIS 1968 JOHN DEERE 2020 WAS QUITE THE FIND FOR TYLER. HE BOUGHT IT WHEN HE WAS 17 FROM A FARMER WHO HAD BOUGHT IT BRAND NEW. TYLER TOLD US HE LIKED THIS PARTICULAR TRACTOR BECAUSE IT WAS THE LAST YEAR OF THE 4-LEGGED JOHN DEERES.
COUNTRY CHURCH SALUTE:
THIS WEEKEND, WE’RE PAYING TRIBUTE TO THE COUNTRY CHURCH SALUTE GOES TO ST ANN’S CATHOLIC CHURCH IN FREMONT, OHIO, CELEBRATING ITS 175TH ANNIVERSARY THIS YEAR. WHILE THE CHURCH STARTED IN A PRIVATE HOME ON THE BANK OF HTE SANDUSKY RIVER, THE ACUTAL PARISH WAS ORGANIZED IN 1841. WITH THE CURRENT CHURCH DEDICATED IN JULY OF 1891.OUR THANKS TO CHIP AND CATHY OVERMYER FOR SHARING THEIR STORY.
TEASE:
STAY WITH US, CROPWATCH IS NEXT.
CROP WATCH:
JEFF FRANK TELLS US IT’S PERFECT PLANTING CONDITIONS IN WEST CENTRAL IOWA. HE’S BEEN
PLANTING A FEW DAYS AND SAYS HE’S LOVING EVERY MINUTE OF IT. ZACH LYNCH SAYS THEY’VE ALSO STARTED PLANTING IN FEW DAYS THAT A LOT OF FARMERS REALLY GOT IN THE FIELD... BUT NOW, THEY ARE RUNNING FULL STEAM AHEAD AND AHEAD OF LAST YEAR’S PACE.
CLOSING:
FOR JOHN, AL AND MIKE, I’M TYNE MORGAN. THANK YOU FOR WATCHING U-S FARM REPORT. BE SURE TO JOIN US RIGHT HERE AGAIN NEXT WEEK, AS WE WORK TO BUILD ON OUR TRADITION. HAVE A GREAT WEEKEND, EVERYONE.
