TODAY ON U.S. FARM REPORT
APRIL 8-9, 2017
HEADLINES
WELCOME TO U.S. FARM REPORT. I’M TYNE MORGAN, AND HERE’S WHAT WE’RE WORKING ON FOR YOU OVER THE NEXT 60 MINUTES. WHAT IF CHINA STARTED IMPORTING U-S BEEF? < THAT’S WHERE WE CAN TALK ABOUT A REAL BOOM FOR U-S CATTLE PRICES> SENATORS URGING THE PRESIDENT TO WEAVE BEEF INTO TRADE TALKS. WHERE’S THE WHEAT? USDA THINKS WHEAT ACRES WILL DROP TO THE LOWEST IN NEARLY A CENTURY...
U.S.-CHINESE RELATIONS
NOW FOR THE NEWS THAT MOVED THE MARKETS THIS WEEK, LEGISLATORS THINK CHINA COULD BE ONE OF THE ANSWERS FOR HIGHER BEEF PRICES. AS PRESIDENT DONALD TRUMP MET WITH CHINESE PRESIDENT XI JINPINK THIS WEEK, 39 SENATORS SENDING A LETTER TO PRESIDENT TRUMP ASKING FOR BEEF TO MAKE IT INTO THE CONVERSATION. IT ASKED TRUMP TO MAKE REOPENING THE CHINESE BEEF MARKET A PRIORITY TELLING PRESIDENT TRUMP THAT CHINA HAS AN IMPORTANT MARKET IN EXCESS OF 2 POINT 5 BILLION DOLLARS AND THE SECOND LARGERST IMPORTER OF BEEF IN THE WORLD. THE GROUP ALSO EMPHASIZING THE QUALITY OF U-S BEEF AS A STICKING POINT TO OPEN TRADE THERE. BUT UNIVERSITY OF MISSOURI SCOTT BROWN SAYS THERE ARE STILL A FEW HURDLES TO OVERCOME.
BEEF AND PORK EXPORTS
U-S BEEF AND PORK EXPORTS CONTINUE AT AN IMPRESSIVE PACE. U-S MEAT EXPORT FEDERATION SAYS IN FEBRUARY, PORK EXPORTS WERE UP 15 PERCENT FROM A YEAR AGO. WITH VALUE RISING 17 PERCENT. AND BEEF SHIPMENTS ROSE 9 PERCENT FROM THE SAME TIME LAST YEAR. IN VALUE, EXPORTS WERE UP 16 PERCENT. THE AGENCY SAYS CHILLED BEEF TO JAPAN, KOREA AND TAIWAN IS WHAT’S DRIVING THE STRONG EXPORT GROWTH IN THAT MARKET. EXPORTS TO JAPAN WERE UP 48-PERCENT IN VOLUME OVER A YEAR AGO.JAPAN IS DECREASING ITS TARIFFS ON BEEF BEING IMPORTED FROM AUSTRALIA, GIVING THE COUNTRY A COMPETITIVE EDGE OVER THE U-S. AS OF APRIL FIRST, JAPAN LOWERED ITS TARIFFS FOR FROZEN BEEF IMPORTED FROM AUSTRALIA FROM 27.5 TO 27.2 PERCENT. BUT NCBA SAYS IT’S SCHEDULED TO KEEP DROPPING IN THE YEARS TO COME. THE TARIFF ON AUSTRALIA’S FRESH/CHILLED BEEF TO JAPAN DIPPED FROM 30.5 TO 29.9 PERCENT. JAPAN HAS A MUCH HIGHER TARIFF WITH U.S. BEEF PRODUCTS, WHICH IS REMAINING AT 38.5 PERCENT. NCBA SAYS THAT TARIFF WOULD HAVE DROPPED UNDER THE TRANS PACIFIC PARTNERSHIP AGREEMENT.
WEATHER
THOSE ARE THE HEADLINES...METEOROLOGIST MIKE HOFFMAN JOINS US NOW WITH WEATHER. MIKE, ANOHTER WET WEEK ACROSS THE COUNTRY, BRINING SOME RELIEF TO AREAS THAT REALLY NEEDED IT. NOW THAT ‘S RIGHT I KNOW MORE RAIN WHICH DIMINISHED THE DRAUGHT MONITOR WERE STILL SEEING SOME POCKETS HERE IN THEIR SOUTHEASTERN OF THE SOUTH CENTRAL PLAINS WILL LET ‘S GO BACK A MONTH AND AGAIN SEE HOW THERE WAS A LOT MORE DARK ORANGE AND RED AREAS AND AS WE’VE GONE THROUGH THE LAST MONTH YOU’LL NOTICE HOW WE EXPAND THAT THINGS THERE FOR A COUPLE WEEKS AGO BUT WE’VE BEEN TREKKING THINK SENSE AND THIS SHOULD EVEN BE BETTER NEXT WEEK AGAIN BECAUSE SOME OF THIS DIDN’T TAKE INTO ACCOUNT THE LAST RAIN THAT CAME THROUGH THE CENTRAL PLAINS SO LET ‘S GO DAY BY DAY AS WE HEAD THROUGH THIS WEEK WE’RE GOING TO SEE ANOTHER SYSTEM OF THE TOTALLY NEVER WEATHER PATTERN THIS WEEK WE’RE NOT GONNA SEE THE STORMS DIVING IN THE TEXAS OKLAHOMA AND COMING NORTHEAST WITH TONS OF GOUGH MOISTURE WE’RE GOING TO SEE MORE NORTHERLY NORTHERN STORMS WHICH WON’T HAVE QUITE AS MUCH MOISTURE STILL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE GREAT LAKES IN THE TEXAS A LITTLE BIT OF RAIN MAY BE SNOW ON THE NORTHERN FRINGE IS THERE ANOTHER SYSTEM COMING IN OUT WEST ON MONDAY ON WEDNESDAY THEN THAT SYSTEM IS MOVING INTO THE MIDDLE THE COUNTRY BUT AGAIN MUCH FARTHER NORTH AREAS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THE FIRST SYSTEM IS MOVING OFF THE EAST COAST MAY BE SOME LINGERING SHOWERS IN THE MID ATLANTIC STATES AND YOU’LL NOTICE IS WE HAD TOWARD FRIDAY THEN THAT ‘S A SYSTEM THAT CAME INTO THE WEST COAST BARELY THEIR EASTERN GREAT LAKES A LITTLE BIT OF RAIN AND SNOW AND THE NEXT SYSTEM IS WELL IT ‘S A LITTLE MORE POTENT BUT IT ‘S STILL FARTHER NORTH WE’LL SEE SOME RAIN SHOWERS ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS SOME SNOW SHOWERS FAIRLY COLD AIR COMES INTO THE CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE ROCKIES THAT RAIN IN CENTRAL CALIFORNIA PRETTY WARM WEATHER REDEVELOPED IN THE SOUTHERN PLAINS WILL CHECK THE LONGER RANGE FORECAST IN OUR NEXT HALF HOUR
TEASE
MEAT EXPORTS ARE STRONG, BUT CAN IT LAST? WE’LL DISCUSS WITH CHIP NELLINGER AND DUWAYNE BOSSE AFTER THE BREAK.
ROUNDTABLE 1
WELCOME BACK HERE NOW WITH CHIP NELLINGER AND DUWAYNE BUSSEY TALKING MARKETS THIS WEEK. LET ‘S START OFF WITH LIVESTOCK SINCE IT WAS A LITTLE BETTER PICTURE ON THIS WEEK. WE LOOK AT THE LIVESTOCK MARKET ‘S MEAT EXPORT FEDERATION A CAME OUT WITH FEBRUARY EXPORT NUMBERS. I MEAN WE’VE JUST SEEN AN AGGRESSIVE GROWTH IN MEAT EXPORTS BUT CAN CAN THAT CONTINUE?THE HOPE IS THAT THERE CAN. ON THE PORK SIDE, CHINA ‘S BEEN A BIGGER PLAYER HERE RECENTLY AND THAT ‘S GONNA GIVE US SOME LONG TERM SUPPORT. AND THEN THERE ‘S SOME TALK OBVIOUSLY OF OF MAYBE OPENING OUR BEEF MARKET UP TO CHINA AS WELL. THAT MAY BE MORE OF A LONG SHOT. BUT THAT YOU KNOW THERE ‘S A LOT OF MOUTHS TO FEED IN ASIA AND YOU KNOW A GROWING MIDDLE CLASS. SO YOU KNOW THAT ‘S THE HOPE IN AND I’M SURE THAT ‘S AT WHAT OUR TRADE REPRESENTATIVES THERE ARE WORKING TOWARDS IT MIGHT JUST TAKE A WHILE THIS WEEK. I MEAN THERE ‘S THE PRESIDENT TO BRING UP THE FIN IS IN HIS TALKS WITH THE CHINESE PRESIDENT. BUT HOW LIKELY IS IT THAT I MEAN WE COULD SEE CHINA ‘S START TO BUY U S BEEF??? I MEAN THEY COULD OPEN IT UP AND START TO BUY FROM US. BUT IT ‘S NOT GONNA HAVE A QUICK IMPACT ON PRICE. IT ‘S MORE THE LONG TERM. IT WOULD TAKE SOME TIME WHEN HE DID DEVELOP THAT APPETITE OVER THERE. AS THEIR MIDDLE CLASS GROWS THEY WANT A HIGHER QUALITY MEAT, THAN THEY WILL START BUYING FROM THE U S IT ‘S A DEMAND THERE BUT IT IT’LL TAKE TIME BUT IT WILL EVENTUALLY COME. MORE SHORT TERM WHAT ‘S YOUR OUTLOOK ON PRICES?? THEY’RE HOLDING UP FAIRLY WELL. WE’VE HAD A SMALL DIP, PROBABLY MORE SEASONAL THAN ANYTHING IN BOXED BEEF PRICES. THE CASH MARKET MAYBE TAKE A HOLD OF A BREATHER. BUT THE MARKETS HOLDING UP FAIRLY WELL. IN THE SHORT RUN WE PROBABLY HAVE MAYBE THREE TO FIVE DOLLARS. DOWNSIDE RISK IN CATTLE PRICES HERE ON THE BEEF SIDE. PROBABLY SOME UP SIDE AS WELL. I THINK A PRETTY FAIRLY PRICED. BUT LONGER TERM. YOU KNOW OUT INTO THE END OF THE YEAR IN AND THE WINTER I THINK THINGS COULD BE BACK UP AGAIN. AND PACKER ACTION. HOW IS THAT IMPACT THEIR CASH CATTLE MARKET??? WILL GO IN RIGHT ON WITH WHAT CHIP SAID THE AREA OUT OF THE PACKER LATELY KIND OF MAKES ME NERVOUS. IS WHAT THEY’VE BEEN DOING IN LAST MONTH AS THEY BOUGHT A BUNCH OF CATTLE IN A CONTRACT IT CAN ALLOW FOR APRIL. AND NOW NOW ARE IN APRIL THEY’RE BUYING A BUNCH OF CATTLE SUPPOSEDLY OUT FOR MAY. AND IS A LITTLE BIT WORRIED THAT SHOW LIST THIRTY INCREASE HERE THEY COULD HAVE ALL THE CARDS IN THIS POKER GAME BASICALLY AND SIT BACK AND BRING IN THE CONTRACTOR CATTLE, PULLBACK AS THE SHOWLIST GETS BIGGER AND REALLY CANDID. DIVE THE CASH MARKET. ON THE SEASONAL TENDENCY THAT WE NORMALLY HAVE. SO I’M A LITTLE NERVOUS IN THE SHORT RUN LIKE CHIP IS HERE AND REALLY LIKE BUY A PUT OPTION TO HAVE SOME PROTECTION. BUT AT THE HOG MARKET SEEMS A MILD EXPANSION THERE. IF THAT CONTINUES I DO THINK THAT PRESSURES CRISIS OR OR NO BECAUSE WE WILL HAVE A HOME AT ONE OF THESE WHAT THESE PROCESSING PLANTS COME ONLINE??? YES I THINK THAT ‘S GONNA BE THAT THE TUG OF WAR AS WE GO FORWARD. YOU MENTIONED EARLIER ABOUT THE STRONG DEMAND SIDE OF THAT. WERE SEEN SOME EXPANSION. I THINK SOME OF THAT ‘S A BUILT IN THE PRICES HERE. WE’VE HAD A BREAK FROM THE FROM THE HIGHS OF THE LAST OH MONTH OR SO. SO I THINK THAT THERE ‘S PROBABLY SOME SHORT RUN DOWN SIDE RISK STILL LEFT IN THE HOG PRICES.BUT LONGER TERM IT JUST SEEMS LIKE THIS DEMAND IS SOLID IN AND GROWING AND SWALLOWING UP IN THE EXPANSION THAT WE’VE SEEN OVER THE LAST COUPLE YEARS. I THINK LONGER TERM THAT ‘S A GOOD THING. AND AGAIN LIKE THE LIKE THE BEEF SIDE ON THE PORK SIDE, I THINK IS YOU GET OUT IN THE SUMMER, THINGS LOOK VERY GOOD AGAIN AND MORE FROM A SEASONAL PERSPECTIVE LIKE WE ALWAYS SEE. HEAD IN TO THAT DEMAND SEASON ARE ALL THE WAY IN WITH NOW FOR A WEEK THE MARKET HAD TIME TO REALLY DIGEST THE PROSPECTIVE PLANTINGS REPORT IN AN INTAKE IN THE USDA NUMBERS. ON HOW MUCH STOCK DO YOU PUT INTO THOSE INITIAL NUMBERS THAT USDA RELEASED LAST WEEK??? WHY I MEAN THEY’RE OUT THERE. AND AND I THINK WE NEED TO TRADE THEM. SURPRISINGLY WE DO CHANGE THOSE ACRES ABOUT WHAT I AND A HALF MILLION MAY BE FROM CORN AND SOYBEANS TO THE JUNE ACTUAL REPORT. BUT IT ‘S ALMOST SPRING WEATHER YET. AND OFFICES IN PRICES AND SPRING. SO THEY CAN STILL CHANGE BUT NO I KNOW YOU GOTTA TREAT THOSE NUMBERS RIGHT NOW. BUT A PERSON MYSELF OF THE WEATHER ‘S GOOD I COULD SEE CORN ACRES OF JUST A LITTLE BIT MORE THAN THAT. AND POSSIBLY SOYBEAN ACRES DOWN. AND THAT GOES AGAINST WHAT I’M HEARING OUT THERE BUT I JUST THINK THOSE SOYBEAN ACRES ARE REALLY HIGH ALREADY. THERE ‘S POSSIBLY SOME PEOPLE THAT ARE GONNA BACK OFF ITS EIGHTEEN ACRES NOW NOW THAT WE’RE HAVING THIS WET WEATHER AND YOU YOU KNOW YOU WERE TALKING OFF CAMERA IN USE AND USUALLY THE MARKET EXPECTS CORN ACRES TO GROW DO YOU THINK THAT HAPPENS THIS YEAR??? I’M NOT SO SURE IT DOES I THINK FOR A COUPLE REASONS ONE MIGHT BE WHETHER. CENTRAL ILLINOIS PARTS OF EASTERN IOWA MISSOURI, OVER THE LAST WEEK HAD FOUR TO FIVE INCHES OF RAIN ARE VERY SATURATED GROUND. I AM MORE RAIN IN THE EXTENDED FORECAST IS THE PROBLEM. SO FAR MAY NOT BE A LOT OF FIELD WORK OR PLANNING DONE IN IN APRIL UNLESS IT REALLY TURNS OFF AND WE MISS THAT RAIN NEXT WEEK IN TALKING TO PRODUCERS THOUGH OVER THE LAST TWO OR THREE WEEKS I’M NOT SO SURE THAT IT ‘S GONNA BE LIKE IT ALWAYS IS. OR OR THAT THE MARKET ALWAYS EXPECTS THAT SMALL INCREASE IN CORN ACRES AND A DECREASE OF BEAN ACRES. PRICE WOULDN’T DO THAT. WE HAVEN’T HAD A HUGE RALLY TO ENTICE FARMERS TO SWITCH BACK. AND I THINK THAT ‘S FINANCIALLY BALANCE SHEETS THAT THE BANKER ‘S GONNA HAVE A SAY IN THIS AS WELL ON THAT MIGHT BE DRIVING SOME OF THE DECISION FOR MORE BEAN ACRES. I THINK IT SETS UP AN INTERESTING THING FOR THE THE JUNE THIRTIETH REPORT ON ON ACRES. I COULD SEE THAT CORN NUMBER SHRINK IN A LITTLE BIT OF BEANS GROWN IN JUST A LITTLE BIT. I MIGHT BE IN THAT THE OUT LIAR AND THAT IN THAT THOUGHT PROCESS. WELL WE NEED TO DIVE INTO THAT SORT OF TAKE A SHORT BREAK TRAVEL TALK MORE ABOUT THAT WHEN WE COME BACK ON U S FARM REPORT
ROUNDTABLE 2
WELCOME BACK WELL BEFORE THE BREAK GOT TO BE WAS TALKING ABOUT MAYBE WHAT WE COULD EXPECT IN THE JUNE THIRTIETH REPORT AND WHAT SAY WE DO SEE A DECREASE IN CORN ACRES ARE IN THAT REPORT COMING UP IN JUNE. I MEAN THAT SOUNDS LIKE IT COULD SET US UP FOR A BULLISH STORY FOR CORN THIS SUMMER??? I SURE THINK SO. I MEAN IF YOU DROP THOSE ACRES ARE A LITTLE BIT MORE AND THEN YOU ADD WEATHER SCARE IN THIS YEAR, YOU KNOW ANYTHING COULD STILL HAPPEN. A REMEMBER TO THE FUNDS ARE SHORT THE CORN MARKET. NOW THEY’RE NOT LONG WHICH IS REALLY ODD FOR THIS TIME A YEAR. YOU START TO GET A WEATHER SCARE AND THEN THEY’VE GOT SAY A HUNDRED AND TWENTY HUNDRED FORTY THOUSAND CONTRACTS TO GET OUT OF SHORTS BEFORE THE EVEN GET LONG. AT LEAVES THE POWDER IN THAT KEG VERY DRY AND VERY EXPLOSIVE. YOU COULD HAVE A HECK OF A RALLY, ESPECIALLY IF YOU START TALKING A LOWER YIELD.WE’RE GETTING WAY TO COMPLACENT. SOME OF THESE BIG YIELDS AREN’T WE AND WE JUST ASSUME THAT EVERY SINGLE YEAR NOW IN CERTAIN REALLY BOTHER HIM. THAT WAS MY NEXT QUESTION BECAUSE I MEAN WE KEEP SAYING WE CAN HAVE ANOTHER YEAR OF RECORD YIELD THEY CAN HAVE ANOTHER YEAR OF RECORD YIELD BUT I MEAN THE FARMER ‘S PROVEN US WRONG RIGHT AND WE CONTINUE TO PRODUCE RECORD YIELDS. SO DO WE BANK ON THAT ARE KIND OF WHAT WHAT IS THE MARKET THINK????NO I DON’T THINK YOU CAN BANK ON IT. IT COULD HAPPEN FOR SURE IT’LL BE THE FIRST TIME IN HISTORY THAT IT HAS A BACK TO BACK TO BACK HUGE CROPS LIKE THAT. SO THERE ‘S ALWAYS THAT ONE YEAR THAT YOU THAT YOU BREAK THE CYCLE ON AND HAVE THE FIRST EVER. BUT I DON’T THINK YOU CAN BANK ON IT. IT IS GOING SAID YOU KNOW. BY JUNE THIRTIETH REPORTWE’RE GOING TO KNOW A SUMMER WEATHER ‘S LIKE AND WHAT POLLINATION IS SHAPING UP TO BE LIKE. AND SO THERE ‘S ANY HINT OF ANY PROBLEMS WITH HOT DRY WEATHER SHAPING UP, OR ANY ISSUES WITH PRODUCTION, WITH LOWER ACRES, THAT COULD BE VERY EXPLOSIVE BECAUSE WERE YOU ALSO USING A RECORD AMOUNT OF CORN. SO IT’S GOING TO BE A FINAL IF THAT ACREAGE REPORT IN JUNE IS A LITTLE BIT LOWER, I THINK IT ONLY GOES THAT AD BULLISHNESS THAT WE SHOULD KNOW MORE THE STORY, MAYBE NOT ALL THE STORY AS FAR AS THE WEATHER GOES BY THAT JUNE THIRTIETH REPORT. AND YOU KNOW THERE ‘S NOT MUCH RISK PREMIUM BUILT IN CORN PRICES RIGHT NOW. THE FUNDS OR SHORT IS AS WE MENTIONED YOU KNOW THERE ‘S A POTENTIAL POWDER KEG OUT THERE. IF WE HAVE ANY PROBLEMS OR A PRODUCTION SCARE. EVEN BEFORE THAT WEATHER HAPPENS, WHEN THEY GET TO PLAY IT EVEN RIGHT NOW AND WHEN WE TALKED ABOUT THAT RIGHT AND THE MARKET AND WE KNOW THAT THAT THE FORMER CAN PLANT A CROP IN A VERY SHORT WINDOW. BUT WHEN DO YOU THINK THAT THIS DELAY PLANTING WHEN YOU THINK THAT COULD POSSIBLY SHOW UP IN THE MARKETS???? I ALSO THINK YOU COULD BY THE END OF NEXT WEEK. REALLY FOR WHAT NEXT WEEK IF WE GOT A WET FORECAST IS NEVER NEVER LOOKING AT THE CURRENT SITUATION WAS LOOKING AT THE FORECAST TEN DAYS OUT. AND IF THAT ‘S WET AGAIN WITH THE FUNDS BE IN SHORT NOW, I WOULD THINK THEY’D SAY HE ‘S OUT IN A WAY THIS MARKET ‘S GONE THAT ONE. IN SHORT ANY MORE. WILL THEY BUY THEM ANY CONTRACTS THERE ‘S YOUR POP RIGHT THERE. I I KNOW WE GET IT ALL PLANTED AND VERY FAST BUT IT WOULD BE A IT COULD BE A QUICK RALLY AS MUCH AS NEXT WEEK.WELL WHAT SEEMED LIKE A SURPRISE OUT OF U S D A I MEAN WE KNEW THAT WE WOULD SEE AN INCREASE IN COTTON ACRES BUT DID YOU THINK WE WOULD SEE A TWENTY ONE PERCENT INCREASE IN COTTON ACRES THIS YEAR.???WELL IF YOU TALK TO FARMERS DOWN IN THE DELTA AND MID SOUTH AREA, THERE WAS A VERY DEFINITE SHIFT HAPPENING AWAY FROM CORN A FOR SURE AND EVEN AWAY FROM SOME BEAN ACRES. TO COTTON. AND THERE WERE SEVERAL REASONS FOR THAT RIGHT PRIMARILY BECAUSE OF A BETTER SUPPORT IN A LEVEL UNDERNEATH COTTON MARKET. DEMANDS PRETTY GOOD IN THE OTHER FUNDS I HAVE A BIG LONG POSITION THAT RECORD BUT THEY HAVE A BIG LONG POSITION BUILT UP. SO PRICES HAVE RALLIED INTO THAT. SO THERE WASTHAT SHIFT GOING ON ALREADY AND I THINK WITH THE RALLY IN PRICES, IT WAS THAT MUCH EASIER FOR FARMERS DOWN THERE TO JUST SAY HEY LET ‘S PLANT SOME MORE COTTON. DEMAND HAS BEEN REALLY GOOD FOR SCOTT BUT CAN THAT HOLD UP??? WELL THAT ‘S THE HOPE THAT ‘S ALWAYS THE WILD CARD. YOU KNOW AS YOU LOOK IT YOU KNOW COMPARE COTTON MARKET HERE DOMESTICALLY TO CORN AND BEANS. IT ‘S VERY SMALL.IN THE WORLD PICTURE, IT ‘S MINUTE. SO IT ALL COMES DOWN TO CHINA MUCH MORE SO EVEN FORAND REAL QUICK I KNOW SPRING WHEAT IS A DIFFERENT SIDE OF OUR CROP RIGHT NOW THE WINNER WE ARE YOU BULLISH WHEN IT COMES TO SPRING WE CONSIDERING THE ACRES AND HOW THAT COULD PLAY OUT???I AM RIGHT NOW. ESPECIALLY WITH PRICE RATHER LOW. SPRING WHEAT WE HAD A LOWER END IN STOCK LAST YEAR YEAR OVER YEAR WHILE ACROSS WE HAD A LOWER END IN STOCK. AND LIKES ITS USE IN SPRING WHEAT IS A DIFFERENT CROP. WE NEED THAT CROP TO BLEND WITH A DIFFERENT. WHEAT. WE’RE PRETTY WET. NORTHERN CORNER OF SOUTHERN CANADA. NOT EVERYONE WANTS A PLANT BEANS WE PLANT LESS SPRING WHEAT COULD BE A HECK A RALLY THIS YEAR. IN SPRING THE MARKET WAS ABOUT A LONG TIME SO NO YOUR OFFSPRING WILL I KNOW I ALL THE OUTSET THAT A YEAR AT ABOUT THE WEBER STATE IT WILL GIVE THEIR CLOSING THAT WHEN WE COME BACK ON U S FARM REPORT
MARKETS NOW
ALL RIGHT TIME NOW. FOR OUR CLOSING THOUGHTS CHIP WILL START WITH YOU. I THINK FROM OLD CROP PERSPECTIVE ON CORN, PRODUCERS HAVE THE KIND OF THINK WHERE WE’RE AT RIGHT NOW.IS THAT SOMETHING TO HOLD INTO SUMMER AND GAMBLE ON WEATHER. IF NOT THE TIME RIGHT NOW THE NEXT THIRTY DAYS IS TO COME MAKE SOME PLANS FOR THAT DISPOSITION REMAINING OLD CROP.FOR NEW CROP CORN AND BEANS. BOTH HAVE THE WHOLE GROWING SEASON HAD OF US. WE TALKED ABOUT THE POTENTIAL POWDER KEG IN CORN. NO NEED TO PANIC. I HAVE A PLAN OF ACTION BUT NO NEED TO PANIC ON CORN JUST YET FROM A NEW CROP PERSPECTIVE. ALRIGHT DUWAYNE. ROLLING RIGHT ALONG WITH THAT, ON THAT NEW CROP REMEMBER ALL THE NEWS IS SO BEARISH RIGHT NOW. SOYBEAN PRICES HAVE DROPPED A LOT THE LAST MONTH. I THINK YOU HAVE YOUR MARKETING PLAN IN PLACE WHICH MIGHT ACTUALLY BE BUYING COURAGE CALLS RIGHT NOW SO WHEN THE MARKET DOES RALLY, AS WE DO A BIG OLD CROP STOCKS, IT GIVES YOU THE COURAGE LITERALLY TO SELL AAT FOUR DOLLARS CORN AND HIGHER. SO I AM BUYING COURAGE CALLS RIGHT NOW ON IT BY PEOPLE DO THAT MOVING FORWARD ALL RIGHT THANK YOU BOTH FOR BEING HERE THIS WEEK STAY WITH US. JOHN PHIPPS JOINS US NEXT
JOHN’S WORLD
WELL, IF YOU’RE NOT ON SOCIAL MEDIA, YOU MAY HAVE MISSED WHY SOME FARMERS NOW HAVE A MAJOR BEEF WITH CARGILL. BUT IT’S THE TOPIC OF THIS WEEK’S JOHN’S WORLD. RECENTLY THERE WAS KERFUFFLE ON SOCIAL MEDIA ABOUT CARGILL AND THE NON-GMO PROJECT. THE NON-GMO PROJECT IS AN ORGANIZATION WHOSE MISSION IS TO PRESERVE NON-GMO FOOD SOURCES. WHILE FARMERS MOSTLY DISAGREE WITH ITS MISSION IT HAS ALSO HAS BECOME THE LEADING AUTHORITY ON GMO TESTING AND VERIFIES LABS AND STANDARDS. CARGILL, LIKE OTHER GRAIN MERCHANDISERS, WORKS WITH NON-GMO PROJECT SOLELY TO PROVIDE THIRD-PARTY VERIFICATION OF VARIOUS PRODUCTS. SOME IN THE GRAIN INDUSTRY, INCLUDING FARMERS, INTERPRET THIS ACTION AS BEING ANTI-GMO. THIS ATTITUDE IS MISGUIDED IN MY OPINION. FULL DISCLOSURE: CARGILL IS AND HAS BEEN MY LARGEST AND BEST GRAIN CUSTOMER FOR MY ENTIRE CAREER. I AM NOT IMPARTIAL. HOWEVER, COMPLAINING THAT CARGILL IS NOT ANTI-ANTI-GMO ENOUGH IGNORES THE REALITY OF THE MARKETPLACE FOR GRAIN. LET ME ILLUSTRATE. A EUROPEAN FOOD PROCESSOR CAME TO INGREDION, FORMERLY NATIONAL STARCH, TO PROVIDE A SPECIFIC STARCH FOR JELLYBEANS. INGREDION CONTRACTED WITH ME TO GROW IT. I HAVE BEEN FORTUNATE TO HAVE GROWN SPECIALTY CORN FOR THEM FOR DECADES. I WAS REQUIRED TO MEET THE NON-GMO STANDARD OF LESS THAN 1% GMO CONTAMINATION, WHICH IS INCREASINGLY HARD TO DO. PROVING MY CORN MEETS THAT SPECIFICATION IS THE TRICKY PART. USING THE NON- GMO PROJECT IS EXACTLY THE RIGHT WAY TO SATISFY DEMANDING END USERS. CERTIFICATION FROM INGREDION OR ME OR THE SEED SUPPLIER WOULD SIMPLY BE LAUGHED AT DUE TO THE OBVIOUS CONFLICT OF INTEREST. AND AS WE UNDERMINE GOVERNMENT IMPARTIALITY BY DISMISSING NUMBERS FROM USDA TO THE CBO, A GOVERNMENT SEAL OF APPROVAL WOULD BE SUSPECT AS WELL. CERTIFICATION FROM THE STRONGEST CRITIC CARRIES THE GREATEST WEIGHT. FARMERS MISTAKE WHO THEIR CUSTOMER IS. FOR MOST OF US OUTSIDE THE PROTEIN OR PRODUCE SECTOR, IT IS NOT A GROCERY SHOPPER. IT IS A GRAIN MERCHANDISER SUPPLYING A FOOD PROCESSOR. THIS GRUMBLING AT CARGILL THEN VIOLATES MY #1 MARKETING RULE: DO NOT GO TO WAR WITH YOUR CUSTOMER. THE NON-GMO PROJECT HAS ESTABLISHED ITSELF WITH BOTH GRUDGING SUPPLIERS AND SKEPTICAL USERS AS THE GOLD STANDARD FOR GMO VERIFICATION. THAT SEAL OF APPROVAL ESTABLISHES A SALABLE CHAIN OF ACCOUNTABILITY FROM MY DIRT ALL THE WAY TO THE JELLYBEAN CONSUMER. IT’S LIKE LETTING THE OPPOSING TEAM SUPPLY THE UMPIRE AND STILL GETTING A FAIR CALL AT HOME PLATE. THANKS, JOHN. U-S WHEAT FACING A TOUGH BATTLE FOR ACRES THIS YEAR. SO, WHAT’ THE FUTURE OF THE AMBER WAVE OF GRAIN? THAT’S COMING UP ON U-S FARM REPORT.
HEADLINES
WELCOME BACK TO U-S FARM REPORT. WE HAVE MUCH MORE AHEAD THIS WEEKEND. DAIRY PRODUCERS RECEIVE A 30 DAY NOTICE. WE’LL TELL YOU WHO’S IMPACTED AND THE DILEMMA THEY’RE DEALING WITH TODAY. WITH THE LOWEST WHEAT ACRES IN NEARLY 100 YEARS, WHERE’S THE WHEAT GOING? THAT’S OUR FARM JOURNAL REPORT. IT TOOK A STICKER GAME TO STUMP JOHN. THAT’S CUSTOMER SUPPORT. AND HELPING HANDS IN THE PLAINS ARE HELPING FARMERS AND RANCHERS REBUILD.
GRASSLANDS NO LONGER NEEDS PRODUCERS’ MILK
NOW FOR THE HEADLINES... DAIRY FARMERS ARE NOT ONLY FACING A SHARP DROP IN MILK PRICES, WITH CLASS 3 FALLING MORE THAN 2 DOLLARS PER HUNDREDWEIGHT SINCE THE START OF THE YEAR. AND NOW SOME DAIRY PRODUCERS IN WISCONSIN NO LONGER HAVE A HOME FOR THEIR MILK. AT LEAST SEVENTY-FIVE DAIRY FAMERS RECEIVING A LETTER THIS WEEK, SAYING THEIR PROCESSOR NO LONGER NEEDS THEIR MILK. NICK BUFFO FROM OUR WISCONSIN AFFILIATE W-K-O- W HAS THE STORY. < MANDY PEIRICK SPENDS THE DAY PREPING HER COWS FOR MILKING TIME -THEIR MILK WILL THEN BE SENT OFF TO GRASSLAND DIARY IN GREENWOOD “WE’VE BEEN PRODUCING MILK, SHIPPING IT TO THEM, EVERYDAY.” BUT ON MONDAY -- THE PEIRICK’S RECIEVED A LETTER FROM GRASSLAND DAIRY-- -- NOTIFYING THEM THAT THEY WOULD NO LONGER ACCEPT THEIR MILK SUPPLY “IT WAS KINDA DISHEARTENING, FINDING OUT THAT 30 DAYS WE HAD TO FIND SOMEWHERE ELSE TO TAKE OUR MILK OR OTHERWISE WE MIGHT BE DONE. IN THE LETTER -- GRASSLAND CLAIMS NEW REGULATIONS FROM CANADA CLOSED THEIR TRADE ROUTE TO CANADIAN CUSTOMERS -- SAYING IN PART “GRASSLAND IS NOW FORCED TO CUT BACK ON OUR MILK INTAKE VOLUMES ON A VERY SHORT NOTICE...” WITH NO WHERE TO SEND THEIR MILK -- PEIRICK HAS SPENT THE LAST DAY CALLING PRODUCERS-- HOPING THEY’LL PICK UP THEIR SUPPLY. “IT’S HARD WHEN EVERYONE IS SAYING NO, AND THERE’S AN OVERSUPPLY OF MILK IN THERE.....*SIGH* JUST HOPING SOMEBODY’S GONNA FIND ROOM FOR USTHANKS, NICK. IT’S ALSO NEW YORK PRODUCERS LEFT WITH NO HOME FOR THEIR MILK. U-S DAIRY ORGANIZATIONS URGING HTE TRUMP ADMINSTRATION TO FIGHT BACK AGAINST THOSE CANADIAN TRADE POLICIES THAT ARE SHUTTING THE DOOR ON AMERICAN DAIRY EXPORTS. THE GROUPS SAYS THE NEW MILK PRICING POLICY, KNOWN AS CLASS 7, IS WHAT’S CAUSING PROCESSORS TO LOSE CANADIAN CUSTOMERS. AND SAY CANADA IS IN VIOLATION OF CURRENT TRADE DEALS. THE GROUPS WARN THIS IS JUST THE START OF HTE FALLOUT. IF CANADA CONTINUES ON THIS PATH, THOUSANDS OF MORE U-S DAIRY PRODUCERS WILL SUFFER.
PURDUE AG BAROMETER
MEANWHILE, MOODS ACROSS THE REST OF FARM COUNTRY CONTINUE TO DETERIORATE. PURDUE UNIVERSITY AND THE CME GROUP ARE OUT WITH THEIR MONTHLY AG BAROMETER. .THE ECONOMIC INDEX SLIPPED FOR THE SECOND STRAIGHT MONTH. IT NOW COMES-IN AT 124. AND EVEN THOUGH THIS IS THE SECOND CONSECUTIVE MONTHLY DECLINE, THE INDEX STILL REMAINS HIGHER THAN LEVELS DATING BACK TO OCTOBER 2015. PURDUE RESEARCHERS SAY THE BAROMETER COULD SIGNIFY THE GROWING REALIZATION THAT REGULATORY AND TAX CHANGES, IF THEY ARE TO TAKE PLACE, COULD TAKE A LONG TIME TO IMPLEMENT. I SPOKE TO JEFF HOUTS WITH FCS FINANCIAL THIS WEEK. HE SAYS LOAN DEMAND IS GOOD, AS IS LOAN AVAILABILITY
CHEMCHINA/SYNGENTA MERGER UPDATE
CHEMCHINA’S TAKEOVER OF SYNGENTA RECEIVING THE GO-AHEAD FROM BOTH THE U-S AND EU THIS WEEK. THE FIRST COMING TUESDAY FROM TEH FEDERAL TRADE COMMISSION. THE AGENCY APPROVING THE 43 BILLION DOLLAR DEAL, BUT WITH A FEW REQUIREMENTS. FTC FORCING TEH SALE OF PARAQUAT, ABAMECTIN AND CHLORTHALONIL. WITHOUT THOSE DIVESTITURES, THE COMPANIE WOULD OWN MOR THAN 80 PERCENT OF THE ABAMECTIN MARKET. THE E-U FOLLOWING SUIT ON WEDNESDAY, ALSO APPROVING CHEMCHINA’S QUEST TO OWN SYNGENTA, BUT WITH SIMILAR CONDITIONS.
PERDUE CONFIRMATION
AG SECRETARY NOMINEE SONNY PERDUE FINALLY HAS A DATE SET FOR THE FULL SENATE CONFIRMATION. BUT IT WON’T HAPPEN BEFORE THE EASTER BREAK. THE SENATE VOTE IS SCEHDULED FOR APRIL 24TH, THAT’S AFTER THE SENATE RETURNS FROM THEIR TWO- WEEK RECESS. APRIL 24 IS MORE THAN 3 MONTHS AFTER PRESIDENT TRUMP TAPPED PERDUE AS AG SECRETARY ON JANUARY 19TH.
USDA OPENS CRP ACRES TO WILDFIRE VICTIMS
USDA IS GIVING RANCHERS WHO LOST GRAZING LAND TO THE WILDFIRES SOME ASSISTANCE. THE AG DEPARTMENT AUTHORIZED EMERGENCY GRAZING ON CONSERVATION RESERVE PROGRAM LANDS LOCATED IN KANSAS, OKLAHOMA, AND TEXAS. THOSE THREE STATES WERE MOST HEAVILY IMPACTED BY THE WILDFIRES IN EARLY MARCH. . GRAZING ON THE PROTECTED LANDS CORRESPONDS WITH THE NESTING SEASON FOR THE LESSER PRAIRIE CHICKEN. AS SUCH IT REQUIRED AN EMERGENCY DECLARATION. THOSE WILDFIRE VICTIMS IN THE PLAINS FINALLY SEEING SOME MOISTURE RELIEF, WITH MAJOR IMPROVEMENTS IN THE LATEST DROUGHT MONITOR. CHECK OUT KANSAS, SEVERE DROUGHT, OR THE ORANGE, IS ALMOST GONE. AND THE AREA CONSIDERED ABNORMALLY DRY, OR THE YELLOW, IT IMPROVED 45 POINTS THIS WEEK. OKLAHOMA ALSO SEEING MAJOR CHANGES. EXTREME DROUGHT IS NOW WIPED OFF HTE MAP, AND THE SEVERE DROUGHT CATEGORY IMPROVING 22 POINTS IN JUST A WEEK.
COTTON ACRE JUMP
THE U-S ISN’T THE ONLY COUNTRY EXPECTING BUMP INCOTTON ACRES. AUSTRALIAN FARMERS RESPONDING TO BETTER COTTON PRICES WITH MORE ACRES. AND NOW THE U-S DEPARTMENT OF AGRICULTURE THINKS AUSTRIALIAN COTTON PRIDUCTION COULD HIT 5 MILLION BALES, UP FROM THE 4 POINT 6 MILLION LAST SEASON. FARMERS THERE ARE SEEING NOT ONLY BETTER PRICES, BUT CHEAPER WATER AND STRONG DEMAND. JUST LAST WEEK, USDA PROJECTING U-S COTTON ACRES TO JUMP 21 PERCENT THIS YEAR. A NEW SURVEY SHOWS THE AVERAGE BREAKEVN PRICE FOR CORN IS RIGHT AROUND WHERE PRICES SIT TODAY- - AT 3.69 AN ACRE. THE FARM JOURNAL MEDIA SURVEY IS A RESPONSE OF MORE THEN 500 FARMERS. WE KNOW BREAKEVEN DIFFERS FROM FARM TO FARM, BUT THE SURVEY SHOWED SOME FARMERS HAVE A BREAK EVEN AS LOW AS 1.90 AND AS HIGH AS 5.50.
WEATHER
THAT’S IT FOR NEWS...METEOROLOGIST MIKE HOFFMAN JOINS US NOW WITH THE NATIONAL FORECAST. MIKE, IT DOESN’T SEEM LIKE THIS WET WEATHER PATTERN WANTS TO BUDGE. I KNOW IT REALLY HASN’T OVER THE LAST TWO TO THREE WEEKS BUT I DO SEE A CHANGE IN THE PATTERN THIS WEEK AND PROBABLY FOR THROUGH THE REST OF SPRING. I ATTENDED THAT WE GO BACK TO THAT PATTERN. WE WERE JUST IN BUT HERE ‘S THE JET STREAM OF THE REASON I’M SAYING THAT WE’RE NOT SEEING THESE BIG BOWLING BALL. STORMS COMING INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS THEY’RE STAYING FARTHER NORTH THERE ‘S WEDNESDAY BIG RIDGE IN THE MILL THE COUNTRY NOW THAT IS A PRETTY BIG STORM SYSTEM ON THE END OF THE WEEK COMING INTO THE WEST COAST BUT OUR COMPUTER MODELS NOW ARE WEAKENING. THAT IS IT COMES EAST IN THE NORTHERN PLAINS NEXT WEEKEND. SO HERE ‘S MY THIRTY DAY OUTLOOK FOR TEMPERATURES IN MOST OF THE EAST COAST MOST OF THE TENNESSEE VALLEY DOWN IN TEXAS EXPECTED TO BE ABOVE NORMAL OR NEAR NORMAL FOR THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN CORN BELT BELOW NORMAL THEN FROM UTAH AND WESTERN WYOMING THROUGHOUT THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST PRECIPITATION OVER THE NEXT THIRTY DAYS AND THIS IS ALWAYS TOUGHER TIME GOING ABOVE NORMAL FROM THE NORTHEAST THE GREAT LIGHTS DOWN THROUGH THE CENTRAL INSULAR NORTHERN PLAINS STATES BELOW NORMAL IN FLORIDA BELOW NORMAL IN THE SOUTHWEST AND ABOVE NORMAL IN THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. TIME
FARM JOURNAL REPORT
NO MAJOR GRAIN CROP HAS SEEN MORE PRESSURE THAN THE WHEAT INDUSTRY. JUST LAST WEEK, USDA’S PROSPECTIVE PLANTINGS REPORT SHOWING AN 8 PERCENT DROP IN ALL WHEAT ACRES, MARKETING THE FEWEST ACRES SINCE THE AGENCY STARTED KEEPING RECORDS IN 1919. IN THIS WEEK’S FARM JOURNAL REPORT, CLINTON GRIFFITHS LOOKS AT THE FUTURE OF WHEAT. WHEAT IS STILL THE THIRD LARGEST COMMODITY IN THE UNITED STATES. BUT ACREAGE CONTINUES TO DWINDLE. THIS SEASON USDA IS FORECASTING AMERICAN FARMERS WILL PLANT 46 MILLION ACRES--IT’S THE FIRST TIME ALL WHEAT ACRES HAVE BEEN BELOW THE 50 MILLION MARK SINCE 1970. THE WINTER WHEAT ACRES WERE THE SMALLEST IN 108 YEARS. LESS WHEAT THIS YEAR. INCOME FROM WHEAT HASN’T BEEN VERY GOOD. NOT MUCH TO LOOK FORWARD TO THERE. 12:41 THE LOW PRICES ARE DOING ITS JOB. THEY’RE CURING LOW PRICES. WE’VE GOT THE LOW ACREAGE NUMBERS. I REALLY THINK THE KEY TO THE WHEAT MARKET IS OVERSEAS. LARGE GLOBAL STOCKS ARE PUSHING DOWN PRICES AND CREATING HEADWINDS FOR THE FUTURE. THERE ARE PLENTY OF PEOPLE IN OTHER COUNTRIES THAT PRODUCE WHEAT CHEAPER THAN WE CAN. SO THERE’S 50-100 COUNTRIES THAT PRODUCE WHEAT ALMOST EVERY DAY OF THE YEAR SOMEWHERE ELSE. WHERE AS AMERICA IS JUST THE BEST IN THE WORLD AT GROWING CORN AND SOYBEANS. THAT’S WHY INDUSTRY LEADERS SAY ITS TIME TO CHANGE THE FOCUS. RATHER THAN LOOKING AT INCREASING ACRES AND ACRES AND ACRES OF WHEAT WE NEED TO BE LOOKING AT HOW DO WE INCREASE OUR PRODUCTION AND MAKE SURE OUR QUALITY IS GOOD AND THAT OUR YIELDS CONTINUE TO GO UP. IT’S A HIGH BAR AS USDA EXPECTS PRODUCTION IN 2017 TO BE DOWN 20 PERCENT FROM LAST YEAR. WHEN YOU THINK ABOUT WHAT HELPS FARMERS THE MOST ESPECIALLY WHEN THEY’RE IN ENVIRONMENTS LIKE THIS ITS HELPING THEM TO DRIVE MORE PRODUCTIVITY FROM EACH ACRE IN THE MOST EFFICIENT WAY THAT THEY CAN. EFFICIENCY IN BOTH GENETICS AND AGRONOMICS. AS FARMERS RACE TOWARD A NEW GOAL--200 BUSHEL TO THE ACRE WHEAT. IF YOU GO OUT INTO HTEPNW AND UNDER SOME OF THAT IRRIGATION THEY’RE DEFINITELY LOOKING AT THE 200 BUSHEL NUMBER AND SAYING I WANT TO BREAK THAT THRESHOLD. AND WHEAT VARIEITES ARE GETTING AWEFUL CLOSE. WE’LL SEE YIELD MONITOR SHOTS THAT EVEN IN SOME CASES ARE PUSHING THAT 200 BUSHEL THRESHOLD ACTUALLY ONE OF OUR NATIONAL WHEAT YIELD CONTEST WINNERS WHO PLANTED A WESTBRED VARIETY WAS OVER 190. RIGHT NOW OUR GENETICS ARE THERE GENETICALLY WE HAVE REALLY NICE YIELD POTENTIAL IN THE SOUTHERN GREAT PLAINS FROM BOTH PRIVATE AND PUBLIC GROUPS-- WE PROBABLY HAVE THE GENETIC YIELD POTENTIAL OF 170 BU WHEAT BUT THE CHALLENGE IS THE ENVIRONMENT. AND BECAUSE WHEAT OFTEN GETS PLANTED IN LESS THAN IDEAL CONDITIONS, PUSHING THE YIELD CURVE WILL REQUIRE A NEW MINDSET. YOU KNOW THE SOUTHERN GREAT PLAINS HAS TRADITIONALLY NOT BEEN AN INTENSIVE MANAGED AREA SO IT’S BRINGING THE CROP PRODUCTION STRATEGIES WE HAVE IN COTTON CORN AND SOY PRODUCTION INTO THE WHEAT CROP. 9:41 WE STARTING BRINGING ALL OF THOSE TOGETHER ALONG WITH A POSITIVE MARKET ABOVE THE CURRENT PRICE AND WE’LL SEE IT BACK IN ROTATION. LOW PRICES DO TWO THINGS LOW PRICES PUSH FARMERS TO PRODUCE MORE AND LOW PRICES CONTINUE TO PUSH INNOVATION. AND THIS COMMODITY WILL NEED BOTH TO HELP OVERCOME RECENT TRENDS AND KEEP ITS PLACE ON AMERICA’S FARMS. THANKS, CLINTON. I EVEN TALKED TO SOME GROWERS WHO TOLD ME THEY PLANTED WINTER WHEAT AS A COVER CROP THIS YEAR, AND WON’T EVEN TAKE IT TO HARVEST.
TEASE
UP NEXT, JOHN PHIPPS. U-S FARM REPORT IS BROUGH TTO YOU BY KUBOTA’S M7 SERIES. LEARN MORE ABOUT THE LARGEST TRACTOR IN KUBOTA HISTORY AT KUBOTA.COM
CUSTOMER SUPPORT
WELL, JOHN’S CUSTOMER SUPPORT REGARDING CLEMENTINE’S IN ALASKA SET OFF ONE OF THE LARGEST RESPONSES WE’VE EVER HAD TO A COMMENTARY. SO, HE’S BACK WITH ROUND 2 THIS WEEK. LAST WEEK, I REPORTED MY FAILURE TO EXPLAIN HOW A CITRUS FRUIT - A CLEMENTINE, TO BE EXACT - COULD SPORT AN ALASKA STICKER. AFTER CHECKING ALASKA AG STATISTICS, USDA RECORDS, AND CITRUS GROWER ASSOCIATION WEBSITES, I WAS CLUELESS ABOUT WHAT WAS GOING ON. SOME OF YOU - WELL, MANY OF YOU - HAD THE INGENIOUS IDEA OF GOING TO THE STORE AND ACTUALLY LOOKING AT THE MYSTERIOUS FRUIT IN QUESTION. WHEREUPON YOU DISCOVERED THE STICKERS WERE NOT LABELS OF ORIGIN, BUT INSTEAD PART OF A COLLECTING GAME FROM THE PRODUCERS OF HALOS - OR CALIFORNIA MANDARINS AS THEY CALL THEM. HALOS ARE A BRAND NAME AND CAN EITHER BE A CLEMENTINE OR A VARIETY CALLED W. MURCOTT. THE MAIN POINT IS THEY DO NOT COME FRO ALASKA. THANK YOU ALL FOR YOUR HELP AND WITTY REMARKS. AS YOU CAN SEE, I THINK THIS EXERCISE SET A NEW HIGH FOR READER FEEDBACK. THANKS FOR WATCHING AND PLAYING AT HOME. BUT I WILL CLOSE THIS SORRY EPISODE OF CUSTOMER SUPPORT WITH THIS EMAIL FROM MY NEW BEST FRIEND, DAVE REILLY: “IT JUST DAWNED ON ME. EXCELLENT JOB. CLEMENTINES IN ALASKA. RIIIIIIIGHT. AFTER LIVING IN ALASKA FOR 20 YEARS IT IS PLAUSIBLE GIVEN THE INNOVATIVE INDUSTRIOUSNESS OF THE PEOPLE WHO LIVE THERE. JUST ASK MY ALASKAN FRIENDS. GOOD JOB. YOU GOT ME. HAPPY APRIL FOOLS.” YEAH - APRIL FOOLS - LET’S GO WITH THAT… THANKS, JOHN. AND DON’T FORGET, IF YOU HAVE QUESTIONS, COMMENTS, OR INSIGHT FOR MR. PHIPPS, JUST EMAIL OR DROP US A NOTE ON SOCIAL MEDIA.
TEASE
UP NEXT, WE’LL HEAD OUT WEST FOR A VISIT WITH BAXTER BLACK.
BAXTER BLACK
IT’S TIME NOW FOR A LITTLE HUMOR. AND FOR THAT, WE HEAD OUT WEST TO VISIT BAXTER BLACK. THERE ARE SOME SKILLED PEOPLE THAT I ADMIRE GOOD ROPERS IN FLAT TOP GUITAR PICKER FOR INSTANCE, AND I’VE ALWAYS PRIDED MYSELF ON MY ABILITY TO BUILD A GOOD FENCE. BUT WHEN I’M RIDING THE FENCE LINE WITH THE MAJOR DOMO WIRE WRANGER AND SEE HIM USE FINCING PLIERS WITH THE DEXTERITY OF A SURGEON I REALIZE MY OWN SHORTCOMINGS AND THE SAME GOES FOR FARMERS PULLING THEIR IMPLEMENTS OVER FIELDS THAT SWEEP AND CURVE AND DIP AND CLIMB THROUGH THE KULIS THE CREEKS IN THE CAR BODIES AND LAY A LINE AS STRAIGHT AS A SOLDIERS BACKBONE. BUT I GUESS THE ONE TALENT THAT ALLUDES ME MOST IS MY HORSESHOEING SKILLS. UNLIKE A LOT OF COWBOYS WHO NEVER TOOK A SHOEING LESSONS I LEARNED BY THE YES AND BY GOLLY I ACTUALLY ENJOY SHOEING MY HORSES I DON’T YOU OTHER PEOPLE. MOST PEOPLE CAN’T AFFORD TO HAVE THEM LAME THAT LONG AT SHAAN ‘S DAD AND GRANDPA WERE HORSE SHOERS. SO HE PICKED IT UP. NATURALLY. HE SAID WHEN HE WAS THIRTEEN HIS DAD TOLD HIM TO GO OUT AND SHOE SKEETER WELL TO SEAN ‘S SURPRISE TURNED OUT TO BE EASY AND SO HE WAS LURED INTO COMPLACENCY. AND BY THE TIME HE WAS SIXTEEN HE HAD SHOD SKEETER MANY TIMES. SO WHEN HE SET ABOUT TRIMMING HIM ON THAT FATEFUL DAY SEAN WAS COOL AND COLLECTED. HE PULLED THE OLD SHOE OFF, PICKED UP HIS NIPPERS AND WENT TO WORK. I CAN ALMOST HEAR HIM HUMMING A TUNE HMM, HMM, HMM HMM WHEN HE WOKE UP THE HIS SHOE AND CHAPS WERE WRAPPED AROUND HIS NECK HIS EWING BOX WAS BROKEN AND THE FOOT REST OVERTURNED AND HE HAD A NOT ON HIS HEAD THE SIZE SO LAMB ‘S KIDNEY SKEETER WAS WATCHING THIS ALL WARILY WITH HIS HOLTER SHANK DANGLING OFF HIS CHIN. SALVO, THE BARN CAT WAS SITTING ON THE WALL LICKING HIS PAW SEAN SAT UP AND LOOKED AROUND. AS HIS VISION IMPROVED HE NOTICED SKEETERS HIND QUARTER. TWO SETS OF CLAW MARKS COARSED FROM HIS RUMP TO THE LIFT OFF LIKE THE SKI TRAILS DOWN THE MOUNTAIN SIDE SEAN STUDIED SALVO WHO CONTINUED LICKING HIS PAW DON’T ASK ME HE MEWED I DIDN’T SEE A THING THIS IS BAXTER BLACK FROM OUT THERE THANKS, BAXTER. AND IF YOU WANT TO HEAR MORE OF HIS HUMOR, JUST VISIT BAXTER BLCAK DOT COM.
TEASE
WHEN WE COME BACK, TRACTOR TALES AND OUR COUNTRY CHURCH SALUTE.
TRACTOR TALES
TRACTOR TALES BROUGHT TO YOU BY THE MOST TRUSTED NAME IN FARM EQUIPMENT, MACHINERY PETE!. WELCOME BACK TO TRACTOR TALES FOLKS! THIS WEEK WE HAVE AN OLIVER 88 TO SHOW YOU, THAT’S BEEN SLIGHTLY MODIFIED. THIS OLIVER MAY HAVE ONCE FARMED LAND IN CENTRAL ILLINOIS, BUT TODAY IT HAS A MUCH DIFFERENT AGENDA…POWER. KEVIN MENCHOFER (MEN-CHO-FER) SHOWS OFF THIS WORK HORSE FROM TUNICA MISSISSIPPII GOT A 1956 SUPER 88 OLIVER. I FOUND THIS ONE OUT IN PEORIA ILLINOIS TO HEAR OUR EYE ON ALL EYES IT WAS A STOP TRACTOR WHEN I FOUND IT, DID A LOT OF WORK TO IT SINCE THEN. FROM THE TIME I STARTED, PROBABLY TWO YEARS BEFORE WE GOT IT WHERE WE WANTED IT. IT HAD BEEN BORED AND STROKED BIG TIRES WAS IT WORTH IT? OH YEAH, MY WIFE DON’T THINK SO BUT I THINK IT’S BEEN WORTH IT. I DO TRACTOR PULLS TO, I GOT A COUPLE OF PULLING SLEDS WE GO AROUND AND DO TRACTOR PULLS IN THE SUMMER TIME. OR FAIRS AND DIFFERENT ORGANIZATIONS BACK IN ITS DAY THEY PLOWED WITH IT AND DISKED, BAILED HAY, WHATEVER WITH IT. PROBABLY A THREE BOTTOM PLOW TRACTOR AT THAT TIME THE GUY WHO HAD IT WAS A COLLECTOR AND HE WAS A DEALER AT ONE TIME, HE WAS JUST DOWN SIZING HIS COLLECTION I BOUGHT IT AS A STOP TRACTOR BUT I HAD POTENTIAL GO EVEN BIGGER WITH IT. YEAH I’VE GOT AN 880 OLIVER THAT I PULL WITH IT ALSO. I JUST BUILT BUT THIS HAS BEEN THE MAIN ONE FOR THE LAST ABOUT 12 YEARS. WE JUST HAD A LOT OF FUN ON IT, WENT THROUGH A LOT OF PULLS OVER ITS YEARS.
COUNTRY CHURCH SALUTE
TODAY’S COUNTRY CHURCH SALUTE GOES THE SHILOH LUTHERAN CHURCH LOCATED IN ELMORE, MINNESOTA. THEY ARE CELEBRATING THEIR 125TH ANNIVERSIARY. THE CURRENT CHURCH WAS BUILT IN 1965, BUT AS YOU CAN SEE, THE HISTORY GOES BACK LONG BEFORE THAT. OUR THANKS TO MARCIA MILBRANDT FOR SHARING THEIR STORY. AS ALWAYS WE WANT TO LEARN ABOUT YOUR HOME CHURCH AS WELL... SALUTES CAN BE SENT TO THE ADDRESS ON THE SCREEN. STAY WITH US - CROPWACH IS NEXT.
FROM THE FARM
WELL, WE CONTINUE TO HEAR STORIES AND SEE THE PICTURE OF FARMERS AND RANCHERS HELPING THE VICTIMS OF THE RECENT WILDFIRES. MATT SCHWAB SAYS THIS IS HOW HE SPENT HIS SPRINGBREAK. IT’S A CONVOY FROM MICHIGAN HEADING TO KANSAS. ON THE WAY, A MISSOURI TROOPER CONGRATULATED THE GROUP ON WHAT THEY WERE DOING, PRAISING THEM FOR THEIR TIME AND EFFORT. AND BACK CLOSER TO HOME, AMY JOYCE TOOK HER KIDS TO ASHLAND FOR THEIR SPRING BREAK. THEY VOLUNTEERED THEIR TIME TO HELP BUILD FENCE DEMOLISHED FROM THE WILDFIRES. AMY TOLD ME IT WAS SUCH A HUMBLING EXPEIRENCE, BUT THERE’S STILL A LOT OF WORK THAT NEEDS TO BE DONE. SHE SAID THERE’S SO MANY GOOD, HARDWORKING PEOPLE THAT ARE DEALING WITH THE AFTERMATH FROM THE DISASTER. THEY WERE JUST GRATEFUL FOR THE OPPORTUNITY TO REACH OUT AND HELP. AND DON’T FORGET, IF YOU’RE STILL LOOKING FOR A WAY TO HELP, JUST VISIT AGWEB.COM SLASH WILDFIRES. YOU CAN FIND A LIST THERE. WELL, MIKE, THIS WEEK, MY ALMA MATER INVITED MEBACK TO BE PROFESSOR FOR A DAY. I WENT TO THE UNIVERSITY OF MISSOURI, OR MIZZOU, AND SPOKE TO VARIOUS CLASSES ADN GROUPS. AND I LEARNED ONE THING-- I DIDN’T MISS MY CALLING. I MEAN, THEY HAD A VERY BLANK STARE ON THEIR FACE. BUT I THINK I THINK I’M KIND OF INTERESTING. HEY DIDN’T ALL SEE THAT WAY. IT ‘S MUCH EASIER TALKING TO SECOND THIRD FOURTH YEAR AND THAT YOU’RE JUST ABSORB EVERYTHING AND IT WAS A COUPLE DAYS AFTER SPRING BREAK. BUT IT WAS ALL THAT STUFF. IT WAS A GOOD TIME APPRECIATE THE INVITE BACK WALL AND WE ACTUALLY DID A MARKETING DISCUSSION THAT WILL AIR NEXT WEEKEND ON THE SHOW
TEASE
IF YOU HAVE A PICTURE OF VIDEO YOU’D LIKE TO SEND IN, SEND THOSE TO THE ADDRESS ON TEH SCREEN. FROM ALL OF US AT U.S. FARM REPORT, I’M TYNE MORGAN. THANK YOU FOR WATCHING U-S FARM REPORT. BE SURE TO JOIN US RIGHT HERE AGAIN NEXT WEEK, AS WE WORK TO BUILD ON OUR TRADITION. HAVE A GREAT WEEKEND, EVERYONE.
