USFR Weekly Recap - February 4-5, 2017

BEEF REPORT
NOW FOR THE NEWS THAT MOVED THE MARKETS THIS WEEK...USDA RELEASING IT’S LATEST CATTLE INVENTORY NUMBERS CONFIRMING THE NATION’S HEARD JUST KEEPS GROWING. AS OF JANUARY FIRST ALL CATTLE AND CALVES TOTALED 93-POINT-POINT-SIX MILLION HEAD, UP TWO PERCENT FROM A YEAR AGO. BY STATE - TEXAS AND OKLAHOMA OVERALL INVENTORIES ARE UP FOUR PERCENT, NEBRASKA IS UNCHANGED, KANSAS UP TWO PERCENT AND MISSOURI IS UP SIX PERCENT. THE CALF CROP IS ALSO BIGGER THAN A YEAR AGO. THE NEW ESTIMATE IS JUST OVER 35 MILLION HEAD, A THREE PERCENT INCREASE FROM LAST YEAR. OVERALL, HERD EXPANSION WASN’T AS ROBUST AS SOME EXPERTS EXPECTED. <"SOME ECONOMISTS EVEN SUGGEST EXPANSION IS OVER. IF IT IS, THAT MEANS PROFITABILITY AND PRICES COULD TURN AROUND EARLIER THAN EXPECTED. HOWEVER, THE FORECAST FOR 2017 AND 2018 PROBABLY REMAIN IN PLACE FOR AT LEAST 6 MONTHS UNTIL WE GET A BETTER HANDLE OF WHERE OUR NUMBERS ARE ."> THE NUMBER OF CATTLE PLACE INTO FEEDLOTS IN DECEMBER WAS 18 PERCENT HIGHER THAN A YEAR AGO. AND IT WAS HIGHER THAN THE TRADE EXPECTED. CATTLE ON FEED CAME IN EVEN AT 10 POINT 6 MILLION HEAD. MARKETINGS ROSE 7 PERCENT. USDA ALSO SHOWING IN ITS LAST REPORT, RECORD BEEF IN COLD STORAGE. THE LATEST STERLING BEEF PROFIT TRACKER SHOWING ANOTHER BUMP IN FEEDER MARGINS. INDUSTRY PER HEAD AVERAGES SHOW 245 DOLLARS OF PROFIT...DRIVEN HIGHER BY FALLING FEED COSTS. THAT’S NOW 10 STRAIGHT WEEKS IN THE BLACK. PACKERS HOWEVER FEELING THE SQUEEZE THIS WEEK..PACKER MARGINS SHOWING LOSSES OF 8 DOLLARS PER HEAD--THE FIRST WEEK IN THE RED IN MORE THAN A YEAR.

DOLLAR’S WORST JANUARY
THE U.S. DOLLAR WRAPPING ITS WORST JANUARY IN 30 YEARS. THE CURRENCY INDEX DROPPING MORE THAN 2 AND A HALF PERCENT--SOMETHING THAT HASN’T HAPPENED SINCE JANUARY OF 1987. CONCERNS ABOUT THE NEW ADMINISTRATION’S COMMITMENT TO A STRONG DOLLAR AND RECENT TRADE ACTIONS--HELPING PUSH THE INDEX TO FRESH MULTI-MONTH LOWS.

COTTON FUTURES
COTTON FUTURES CONTINUING TO SEE STRENGTH THIS WEEK. FRESH DEMAND FROM CHINESE BUYERS HELPING TO SPARK COTTON’S BEST RALLY IN SIX MONTHS. FRONT MONTH FUTURES CONTRACTS FINDING THEIR WAY NEAR THE 77 DOLLAR PER HUNDRED MARK. THE LATEST TRADE NUMBERS SHOW CHINESE BUYERS COMMITTING TO BUYING NEARLY 5 TIMES MORE AMERICAN COTTON THAN THIS TIME LAST YEAR. THE NATIONAL COTTON COUNCIL IS EXPECTED TO RELEASE IT’S ACREAGE ESTIMATES NEXT WEEKEND.

WINTER WHEAT CONDITIONS
THE AG DEPARTMENT UPDATED WINTER WHEAT CONDITIONS. STARTING IN KANSAS - 44-PERCENT IS GOOD TO EXCELLENT. UNCHANGED FROM LAST MONTH. THE ENTIRE STATE HAD MEASURABLE RAINFALL, SO SOIL MOISTURE IS MOSTLY ADEQUATE. OKLAHOMA 33-PERCENT GOOD TO EXCELLENT, IMPROVING BY EIGHT POINTS. SOIL MOISTURE IS DESCRIBED AS “ADEQUATE TO SHORT” TEXAS - 29-PERCENT GOOD TO EXCELLENT, A DECLINE OF 12 POINTS FROM EARLY JANUARY. THE STATE IS NEARLY DROUGHT FREE.

WEATHER
THOSE ARE THE HEADLINES...METEOROLOGIST MIKE HOFFMAN JOINS US NOW WITH WEATHER... MIKE IT SOUNDS LIKE THE WEST COAST IS GETTING MORE MOISTURE? THAT ‘S RIGHT TYNE THEY’VE HAD SOME AND THEY’RE GETTING MORE THIS WEEK THAT WOULD JUST CONTINUE TO SHRINK THE DROUGHT MONITOR OVER THE SOUTHWEST ESPECIALLY SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA WE STILL HAVE SOME POCKETS FARTHER EAST IS YOU CAN SEE SOME SOUTH CENTRAL PLAINS INTO THE SOUTHEAST NOW GO BACK A MONTH YOU SEE ALL OF THESE AREAS WERE ACTUALLY LARGER NORTHEAST SAME IDEA BUT LET ‘S WATCH OVER THE PAST FOUR WEEKS WE’VE SEEN ALL OF THESE DROUGHT AREA SHRINKING ACROSS THE COUNTRY OF MY BIGGEST CONCERN RIGHT NOW IS EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND SURROUNDING AREAS OF WE DON’T GET SOME MOISTURE THERE YOUR HEADING INTO THE GROWING SEASONKIND OF IN THE PARTIAL TROUBLE BUT WILL HOPE TO GET SOME IN THERE ANYWAY THERE’S THE LOOK AS WE HEAD INTO THIS WEEK ON MONDAY A STORM SYSTEM WEEK ONE ACROSS THE MIDDLE OF THE COUNTRY THIS IS THE MORE POWERFUL ONE OUT WEST WITH RAIN AND MOUNTAIN SNOWS AND HE CONSIDERS JUST SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY ARE COLD AIR TO THE NORTH IS KIND OF HELD UP THERE IS MILDER TEMPERATURES COME AND NOW BY WEDNESDAY THOUGH THE COMBINATION OF THOSE TWO STORMS POWERFUL STORM SYSTEM FOR THE GREAT LIKES LOTS OF SNOW ON THE WEST SIDE OF IT LOTS OF RAIN COMING UP FROM NORTHERN FLORIDA ALL THE WAY UP THE EAST COAST IN THE NEW YORK AND SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND BEHIND IT MUCH COLDER EVEN FRIGID AIR STARTING TO COME INTO THE NORTHERN TIER OF STATES STATIONARY FRONT THAT A LITTLE BIT OF RAIN AND SNOW THERE OUT WEST NEXT STORM SYSTEM THEN COMES IN BUT BY FRIDAY AT WEST AND WE HAVE A WEAK STORM MOVING ALONG THAT COLD FRONT THROUGH THE SOUTHEAST A LITTLE BIT OF RAIN AND MOUNTAIN SNOW THERE OTHERWISE SUNNY AND FRIGID IN THE GREAT LAKES AND THE NORTHEAST AS WE ROUND OUT THE WEEK WE’LL CHECK YOUR LONGER RANGE FORECAST COMING UP ON OUR NEXT HALF HOUR

TEASE
CLIMBING COTTON PRICES COULD BUY ACREAGE. WE’LL TALK ABOUT AFTER THE BREAK WITH JOHN PAYNE AND JIM MCCORMICK. SO DON’T GO ANYWEHERE.

ROUNDTABLE 1
WELCOME BACK TO U S FARM REPORT ON THE ROUND TABLE WITH ME THIS WEEK WE HAVE JOHN PAYNE OF DANIEL’S AG MARKETING AND JIM MCCORMICK OF ALANDALE. OK JOHN TO GET A START IT OFF LET ‘S TALK ABOUT THE COTTON MARKET BECAUSE IT ‘S BEEN EXCITING AND WE ARE CONTINUING TO SEE THAT THE COTTON MARKET RALLY. IT SEEMS LIKE IT ‘S BUYING A CURSED SO WHERE ‘S THIS MOMENT SOME COMING FROM?? WELL IT ‘S A GOOD QUESTION YOU KNOW WE’VE BEEN LONG AS FAR AS THE SPECULATIVE FUNDS HAVE BEEN PUSHING THING ABOUT THREE MONTHS NOW. WE READ THE TEALEAVES A COUPLE MONTHS AGO THINKING THAT YOU’RE GONNA SEE IT A LOT MORE ACREAGE, WHICH I THINK WE WILL, BUT WE’VE SEEN A CONTINUED DEMAND OFF OF THE LATE HARVEST. I THINK THE THE GINS ARE A LITTLE BIT BACKED UP AND WE’RE SEEING A PROTOTYPICAL SHORT SQUEEZE THIS WEEK WITH A COTTON RALLING IN THE FRONT MONTH BLOWING OUT THE FRONT MONTH SPREAD MEANING THE OLD CROP REALLY GETTING EXCITED THE BACK MONTHS TESTING WHERE THEY WERE. AND WE SEE THAT REVERSED LAST TWO DAYS. SOME SIGNS OF CAPITULATION OF A DOUBLE TOP TIER OF THE SUMMER HIGHS BUT BUT FOR THE COTTON PRODUCERS, IT IS VERY DIFFICULT BECAUSE THEIR OBVIOUSLY SWITCHING A LOT OF SWITCHING FROM WHEAT, OR IN SOME CASES CORN, OVER THE COTTON MARKETS AND THEY’RE PAYING INVESTING TO DO THAT. DO YOU SIMPLY LOCK IT ALL IN AT THIS POINT GIVE AWAY A LOT UPSIDE FOR THIS THING TO CONTINUE? THE THAT’S THE DECISION WE HAVE TO MAKE HERE AND IT CAN BE DIFFICULT THIS WAS A TOP EDGE THIS IS A LITTLE BIT OF AN ILLIQUID MARKET AND CAN ACT IRRATIONALLY BECAUSE IT ‘S NO WITH ALL OF THE INDIAN THE CHINESE FORCE IS THAT ARE PUSHING THINGS. IT SEEMS LIKE A ITS BUYING ACRES ALWAYS INTERESTING WHEN THE ACREAGE REPORT COMES OUT OF THE KIND OF GET A GLIMPSE OF IT SAID THAT WHAT USDA THINKS IT ‘S GOT A GOOD PICTURE COULD BE NEXT YEAR WE MEAN THAT ‘S NOT A PRETTY ACREAGE STORY THERE BUT DO YOU THINK THERE ‘S A BULLISH STORY AND WE AT THIS POINT?? WE DO THING THERE’S A LITTLE BIT OF A BULLISH STORY COMING UP THAT ‘S JUST KIND OF PERCOLATED THIS LAST WEEK. CONFLICT THAT ‘S GOING ON IN THE UKRAINE AND RUSSIA. RIGHT NOW THAT ‘S BRINGING INTERNATIONAL HEADLINES BACK IN. A FEW YEARS BACK WHEN THE UKRAINE WAS INVADED BY THE RUSSIANS ON THE BORDER, IT CAUSED THE WHEAT MARKET TO RALLY ABOUT A DOLLAR FIFTY. THE FUNDS WHERE SHORT ABOUT SEVENTY FIVE THOUSAND CONTRACTS BACK THEN. THEY’RE SHORT ABOUT THE SAME AMOUNT SIZE RIGHT NOW. IT HASN’T BLOWN UP YET BUT IF THAT WOULD ESCALATE AND REALLY EXPAND, YOU COULD SEE A LOT OF HEAVY HEAVY DOSE OF SHORT COVERING BY THE FUNDS IS A BLOWOUT LIKE THEY DID JUST A FEW YEARS BACK. IN THE WHEAT MARKET COULD USE THAT RIGHT ALL RIGHT LOOKING TO NEXT WEEK USDA COMING UP WITH THE WITH ANOTHER REPORT THE FEBRUARY REPORT TO ME TYPICALLY WE KNOW THAT ‘S TYPICALLY A NON MARKET MOVER BUT DO YOU THINK WE COULD BE HIT WITH ANY SURPRISES NEXT WEEK JOHN?? THE SURPRISE IS DIFFICULT MAYBE THEY WOULD ADJUST THE ARGENTINIAN NUMBERS DOWN A LITTLE BIT MORE THAN THE TRADE WANTS THEM TO. THIS IS THE ONE THAT WE WILL FOCUS ON FOR ANY SURPRISES. I THINK THE FEED DEMAND AND THAT WOULD BE CHANGED IN THE CORN CERTAINLY BE OFFSET BY MANY LOSSES IN EXPORTS IF YOU’RE GOING TO SHIFTING BUSHELS AROUND FROM ONE OF THE OTHER. I DON’T THINK CARRY OUT WILL ADJUST MUCH IN ANY OF THE MARKETS. SJIM DO YOU THINK WE COULD HAVE A STORY IN CORN AFTER THIS REPORT? AFTER THIS REPORT PROBABLY NOT. LIKE JOHN SAID WE’RE PRETTY MUCH LOOKING FOR THEM MAYBE RAISE THE EXPORTS RAISED THEE UP ALL OF THAT BUT OFFSET THE DROP IN FEED. THE NUMBER OF WE THINK THAT MIGHT START IN THIS MARKET A LITTLE BIT EXCITED AS WE GET A LITTLE LATER IN FEBRUARY WHEN THE OUTLOOK FOR ITS FIRST GUESS FOR ACREAGE. WE’RE GUESSING AT ALLENDALE WE’RE GOING TO LOSE 3 TO FOUR MILLION ACRES OF CORN THIS YEAR. THAT SO WE’RE ANTICIPATING. WE LOSING CORN ACRES AND PICKING UP BEAN ACRES. DO YOU THINK WE’LL HAVE MORE BEAN ACRES THAN CORN? IT’S GOING TO BE CLOSE. YOU MIGHT BE YOU’RE RIGHT THERE ABOUT EIGHTY NINE NINETY TIED BOTH. SO I IT COULD BE THE FIRST TIME EVER A TIME WHAT TYPE OF A GREAT NUMBER JOHN DO WE NEED TO MOVE THE CORN PRICE HIGHER? IN WHAT TYPE OF PRODUCTION WE NEED TO SEE IN HIS CORN ACRES?? WHILE JIM’S RIGHT I THINK WE’LL SEE THE CORN SUBSTANTIALLY MOVE CONSIDERING WHAT THE RATIOS ARE RIGHT NOW. BEANS WE’RE AT ABOUT TWO FIVE AND THAT ‘S A RECORD FOR THIS TIME OF THE YEAR. I’M NOT AS BULLISH ON THE CORN ACREAGE NUMBER JUST GIVEN THE FACT THAT FARMERS LOVE TO PLANT IT. I KNOW THE BANKERS ARE CONSTRICTING ON THINGS A LITTLE BIT. BUT I THINK OVER THE LONG RUN, THIS THING ‘S A YIELD STORY, IT’S A PRODUCTION STORY. IF THE HOPS GONNA COME, IT’S GONNA COME PROBABLY MID SUMMER LATE LATE SPRING WHEN WE HAVE A PRODUCTION PROBLEM AND THE U S. SO I MEAN A BIG MARKET MOVE EITHER WAY YOU SAID WE COULD GET FROM USDA ‘S AG OUTLOOK FORUM. WHAT ABOUT THE SECRET REPORT THAT WE GET FROM USDA AT THE END OF MARCH. TO THINK THAT COULD BE A BIG MARKET MOVER IN ITS OWN JIM WHICH WAY?? WELL THAT WAS OUR QUESTION. THE MARCH REPORT TENDS TO BE ONE OF THE BIGGEST REPORTS OUT THERE. BECAUSE YOU’RE GETTING THE ACREAGE, YOU’RE GETTING QUARTERLY GRAIN STOCKS REPORT, UM IF I GOTTA GET MY GUESS IS IT DEPENDS ON WHERE THEY COME OF THE ACRES. I THINK THE TRADE’S GONNA GO INTO THE REPORT ANTICIPATING LESS CORN ACRES AND MORE BEAN ACRES. THE PIVOT OFF OF THAT’LL BE HOW MANY MORE HOW ACURATE THE TRADE IS. BECAUSE LATELY IT SEEMS LIKE SOMETIMES THE TRADE HASN’T HAD A GOOD HANDLE OF WHAT THE USDA HAS TO SAY. OUR GUESS ONCE WE GET THIS CROP PLANTED, WE WILL GO DOWN. WE THINKING THAT WE WILL GET A PRETTY GOOD SPRING BREAK NO MATTER WHAT THE ACRES ARE. AT LEAST TEMPORARILY WE’RE OFF TO A GOOD PLANTING PACE. WE’VE GOT A BIG ENOUGH CORN ACREAGE CARRY IN THAT COULD OFFSET A COUPLE MILLION ACREAGE LOST WITHOUT A PROBLEM. SO YOU THINK GROWERS RIGHT NOW SHOULD BE TAKEN ADVANTAGE OF THE PRICES IN BOTH SOY BEANS AND CORN OR JUST SOYBEANS?? WE’RE A LITTLE BIT MORE AGGRESSIVE TELLING PEOPLE TO SELL BEANS. WE JUST FINISHED OUR ANNUAL AG LEADERS CONFERENCE. WE PRETTY MUCH CAME OUT SAYING YOU NEED TO BE SELLING BEANS, OLD CROP AND NEW RIGHT NOW. CORN, WE’RE A LITTLE BIT MORE OPTIMISTIC ON. WERE HOPING WE GET CLOSER ABOUT FOUR FOR TWENTY LEVEL ON THE NEW CROP CLOSE TO FOUR ON THE OLD CROP. WE’RE RIGHT IS IN REALLY CRITICAL TECHNICAL RESISTANCE THAT WE HAVE BEEN THIS TIME A SIDEWAYS RANGE FOR THE LAST SIX MONTHS IN THE WEEK STRONG GIVE US ENOUGH TO GIVE US A POP TOUR IF WE’RE GOING TO DO IT, WE NEED TO DO IT SOON. IF YOU GET IT YOU GET TWENTY THIRTY CENTS YOU NEED SOMEONE TO WHAT ALL I KNEW ABOUT. OUR OWN WE NEED TO TAKE A BREAK BUT WHEN WE COME BACK WE’LL SEE OF JOHN AGREES WITH ALL OF THAT OF THIS THE PRICES TODAY IF YOU SHOULD BE TAKEN ADVANTAGE OF THAT AS SOYBEANS OR IF HE THINKS MAYBE THERE SOME MORE UPSIDE POTENTIAL TO COME STAY WITH US

ROUNDTABLE 2
WELCOME BACK TO U S FARM REPORT ON THE ROUND TABLE WITH ME THIS WEEK WE HAVE JOHN PAYNE OF DANIEL’S AG MARKETING AND JIM MCCORMICK OF ALANDALE. OK JOHN TO GET A START IT OFF LET ‘S TALK ABOUT THE COTTON MARKET BECAUSE IT ‘S BEEN EXCITING AND WE ARE CONTINUING TO SEE THAT THE COTTON MARKET RALLY. IT SEEMS LIKE IT ‘S BUYING A CURSED SO WHERE ‘S THIS MOMENT SOME COMING FROM?? WELL IT ‘S A GOOD QUESTION YOU KNOW WE’VE BEEN LONG AS FAR AS THE SPECULATIVE FUNDS HAVE BEEN PUSHING THING ABOUT THREE MONTHS NOW. WE READ THE TEALEAVES A COUPLE MONTHS AGO THINKING THAT YOU’RE GONNA SEE IT A LOT MORE ACREAGE, WHICH I THINK WE WILL, BUT WE’VE SEEN A CONTINUED DEMAND OFF OF THE LATE HARVEST. I THINK THE THE GINS ARE A LITTLE BIT BACKED UP AND WE’RE SEEING A PROTOTYPICAL SHORT SQUEEZE THIS WEEK WITH A COTTON RALLING IN THE FRONT MONTH BLOWING OUT THE FRONT MONTH SPREAD MEANING THE OLD CROP REALLY GETTING EXCITED THE BACK MONTHS TESTING WHERE THEY WERE. AND WE SEE THAT REVERSED LAST TWO DAYS. SOME SIGNS OF CAPITULATION OF A DOUBLE TOP TIER OF THE SUMMER HIGHS BUT BUT FOR THE COTTON PRODUCERS, IT IS VERY DIFFICULT BECAUSE THEIR OBVIOUSLY SWITCHING A LOT OF SWITCHING FROM WHEAT, OR IN SOME CASES CORN, OVER THE COTTON MARKETS AND THEY’RE PAYING INVESTING TO DO THAT. DO YOU SIMPLY LOCK IT ALL IN AT THIS POINT GIVE AWAY A LOT UPSIDE FOR THIS THING TO CONTINUE? THE THAT’S THE DECISION WE HAVE TO MAKE HERE AND IT CAN BE DIFFICULT THIS WAS A TOP EDGE THIS IS A LITTLE BIT OF AN ILLIQUID MARKET AND CAN ACT IRRATIONALLY BECAUSE IT ‘S NO WITH ALL OF THE INDIAN THE CHINESE FORCE IS THAT ARE PUSHING THINGS. IT SEEMS LIKE A ITS BUYING ACRES ALWAYS INTERESTING WHEN THE ACREAGE REPORT COMES OUT OF THE KIND OF GET A GLIMPSE OF IT SAID THAT WHAT USDA THINKS IT ‘S GOT A GOOD PICTURE COULD BE NEXT YEAR WE MEAN THAT ‘S NOT A PRETTY ACREAGE STORY THERE BUT DO YOU THINK THERE ‘S A BULLISH STORY AND WE AT THIS POINT?? WE DO THING THERE’S A LITTLE BIT OF A BULLISH STORY COMING UP THAT ‘S JUST KIND OF PERCOLATED THIS LAST WEEK. CONFLICT THAT ‘S GOING ON IN THE UKRAINE AND RUSSIA. RIGHT NOW THAT ‘S BRINGING INTERNATIONAL HEADLINES BACK IN. A FEW YEARS BACK WHEN THE UKRAINE WAS INVADED BY THE RUSSIANS ON THE BORDER, IT CAUSED THE WHEAT MARKET TO RALLY ABOUT A DOLLAR FIFTY. THE FUNDS WHERE SHORT ABOUT SEVENTY FIVE THOUSAND CONTRACTS BACK THEN. THEY’RE SHORT ABOUT THE SAME AMOUNT SIZE RIGHT NOW. IT HASN’T BLOWN UP YET BUT IF THAT WOULD ESCALATE AND REALLY EXPAND, YOU COULD SEE A LOT OF HEAVY HEAVY DOSE OF SHORT COVERING BY THE FUNDS IS A BLOWOUT LIKE THEY DID JUST A FEW YEARS BACK. IN THE WHEAT MARKET COULD USE THAT RIGHT ALL RIGHT LOOKING TO NEXT WEEK USDA COMING UP WITH THE WITH ANOTHER REPORT THE FEBRUARY REPORT TO ME TYPICALLY WE KNOW THAT ‘S TYPICALLY A NON MARKET MOVER BUT DO YOU THINK WE COULD BE HIT WITH ANY SURPRISES NEXT WEEK JOHN?? THE SURPRISE IS DIFFICULT MAYBE THEY WOULD ADJUST THE ARGENTINIAN NUMBERS DOWN A LITTLE BIT MORE THAN THE TRADE WANTS THEM TO. THIS IS THE ONE THAT WE WILL FOCUS ON FOR ANY SURPRISES. I THINK THE FEED DEMAND AND THAT WOULD BE CHANGED IN THE CORN CERTAINLY BE OFFSET BY MANY LOSSES IN EXPORTS IF YOU’RE GOING TO SHIFTING BUSHELS AROUND FROM ONE OF THE OTHER. I DON’T THINK CARRY OUT WILL ADJUST MUCH IN ANY OF THE MARKETS. SJIM DO YOU THINK WE COULD HAVE A STORY IN CORN AFTER THIS REPORT? AFTER THIS REPORT PROBABLY NOT. LIKE JOHN SAID WE’RE PRETTY MUCH LOOKING FOR THEM MAYBE RAISE THE EXPORTS RAISED THEE UP ALL OF THAT BUT OFFSET THE DROP IN FEED. THE NUMBER OF WE THINK THAT MIGHT START IN THIS MARKET A LITTLE BIT EXCITED AS WE GET A LITTLE LATER IN FEBRUARY WHEN THE OUTLOOK FOR ITS FIRST GUESS FOR ACREAGE. WE’RE GUESSING AT ALLENDALE WE’RE GOING TO LOSE 3 TO FOUR MILLION ACRES OF CORN THIS YEAR. THAT SO WE’RE ANTICIPATING. WE LOSING CORN ACRES AND PICKING UP BEAN ACRES. DO YOU THINK WE’LL HAVE MORE BEAN ACRES THAN CORN? IT’S GOING TO BE CLOSE. YOU MIGHT BE YOU’RE RIGHT THERE ABOUT EIGHTY NINE NINETY TIED BOTH. SO I IT COULD BE THE FIRST TIME EVER A TIME WHAT TYPE OF A GREAT NUMBER JOHN DO WE NEED TO MOVE THE CORN PRICE HIGHER? IN WHAT TYPE OF PRODUCTION WE NEED TO SEE IN HIS CORN ACRES?? WHILE JIM’S RIGHT I THINK WE’LL SEE THE CORN SUBSTANTIALLY MOVE CONSIDERING WHAT THE RATIOS ARE RIGHT NOW. BEANS WE’RE AT ABOUT TWO FIVE AND THAT ‘S A RECORD FOR THIS TIME OF THE YEAR. I’M NOT AS BULLISH ON THE CORN ACREAGE NUMBER JUST GIVEN THE FACT THAT FARMERS LOVE TO PLANT IT. I KNOW THE BANKERS ARE CONSTRICTING ON THINGS A LITTLE BIT. BUT I THINK OVER THE LONG RUN, THIS THING ‘S A YIELD STORY, IT’S A PRODUCTION STORY. IF THE HOPS GONNA COME, IT’S GONNA COME PROBABLY MID SUMMER LATE LATE SPRING WHEN WE HAVE A PRODUCTION PROBLEM AND THE U S. SO I MEAN A BIG MARKET MOVE EITHER WAY YOU SAID WE COULD GET FROM USDA ‘S AG OUTLOOK FORUM. WHAT ABOUT THE SECRET REPORT THAT WE GET FROM USDA AT THE END OF MARCH. TO THINK THAT COULD BE A BIG MARKET MOVER IN ITS OWN JIM WHICH WAY?? WELL THAT WAS OUR QUESTION. THE MARCH REPORT TENDS TO BE ONE OF THE BIGGEST REPORTS OUT THERE. BECAUSE YOU’RE GETTING THE ACREAGE, YOU’RE GETTING QUARTERLY GRAIN STOCKS REPORT, UM IF I GOTTA GET MY GUESS IS IT DEPENDS ON WHERE THEY COME OF THE ACRES. I THINK THE TRADE’S GONNA GO INTO THE REPORT ANTICIPATING LESS CORN ACRES AND MORE BEAN ACRES. THE PIVOT OFF OF THAT’LL BE HOW MANY MORE HOW ACURATE THE TRADE IS. BECAUSE LATELY IT SEEMS LIKE SOMETIMES THE TRADE HASN’T HAD A GOOD HANDLE OF WHAT THE USDA HAS TO SAY. OUR GUESS ONCE WE GET THIS CROP PLANTED, WE WILL GO DOWN. WE THINKING THAT WE WILL GET A PRETTY GOOD SPRING BREAK NO MATTER WHAT THE ACRES ARE. AT LEAST TEMPORARILY WE’RE OFF TO A GOOD PLANTING PACE. WE’VE GOT A BIG ENOUGH CORN ACREAGE CARRY IN THAT COULD OFFSET A COUPLE MILLION ACREAGE LOST WITHOUT A PROBLEM. SO YOU THINK GROWERS RIGHT NOW SHOULD BE TAKEN ADVANTAGE OF THE PRICES IN BOTH SOY BEANS AND CORN OR JUST SOYBEANS?? WE’RE A LITTLE BIT MORE AGGRESSIVE TELLING PEOPLE TO SELL BEANS. WE JUST FINISHED OUR ANNUAL AG LEADERS CONFERENCE. WE PRETTY MUCH CAME OUT SAYING YOU NEED TO BE SELLING BEANS, OLD CROP AND NEW RIGHT NOW. CORN, WE’RE A LITTLE BIT MORE OPTIMISTIC ON. WERE HOPING WE GET CLOSER ABOUT FOUR FOR TWENTY LEVEL ON THE NEW CROP CLOSE TO FOUR ON THE OLD CROP. WE’RE RIGHT IS IN REALLY CRITICAL TECHNICAL RESISTANCE THAT WE HAVE BEEN THIS TIME A SIDEWAYS RANGE FOR THE LAST SIX MONTHS IN THE WEEK STRONG GIVE US ENOUGH TO GIVE US A POP TOUR IF WE’RE GOING TO DO IT, WE NEED TO DO IT SOON. IF YOU GET IT YOU GET TWENTY THIRTY CENTS YOU NEED SOMEONE TO WHAT ALL I KNEW ABOUT. OUR OWN WE NEED TO TAKE A BREAK BUT WHEN WE COME BACK WE’LL SEE OF JOHN AGREES WITH ALL OF THAT OF THIS THE PRICES TODAY IF YOU SHOULD BE TAKEN ADVANTAGE OF THAT AS SOYBEANS OR IF HE THINKS MAYBE THERE SOME MORE UPSIDE POTENTIAL TO COME STAY WITH US

MARKETS NOW
AD LIB

JOHN’S WORLD
WE’VE HEARD THAT 10 PERCENT OF FARMLAND IS EXPECTED TO CHANGE HANDS IN THE COMING YEARS, BUT IS THE SYSTEM OF RENTING LAND FAIR? THAT’S THIS WEEK’S JOHN’S WORLD. I WAS ASKED RECENTLY BY A YOUNG FARMER HOW HE COULD GROW HIS FARM. HE EXPLAINED HIS YIELDS WERE ABOVE AVERAGE, HE GETS FIELDWORK DONE CORRECTLY AND ON TIME, AND HIS FINANCES WERE SOUND, BUT LANDOWNERS SEEM TO PASS HIM OVER FOR OLDER FARMERS. I THINK HE WAS IMPLYING AS WELL THAT THOSE OLDER FARMERS DIDN’T REALLY NEED THE GROUND SINCE THEY WERE ALREADY SUCCESSFUL. HE WAS NOT WHINING, BUT HE CONCLUDED BY SAYING HE DIDN’T THINK THE SYSTEM WAS FAIR. HE WAS REPEATING IN HIS OWN WORDS THE COMPLAINTS OF A THIRTY- SOMETHING YEAR OLD FARMER WHO LIVES AT MY ADDRESS. AND NOW THAT I’VE AGED INTO THE OLDER CATEGORY IT WOULD BE EASY TO SAY IT IS TOO FAIR. BUT MY VIEW IS THERE ISN’T A SYSTEM AT ALL. WHAT LOOKS LIKE SYSTEMATIC BIAS AGAINST YOUNGER FARMERS WANTING TO RENT GROUND IS IN TRUTH PREDICTABLE HUMAN BEHAVIOR. RENTING GROUND IS AN ACT OF TRUST ON THE PART OF LANDOWNERS. IT’S LIKE PLACING YOUR MONEY WITH A FINANCIAL ADVISOR. IF YOU HAVE A LONGSTANDING FRIEND IN THE FINANCIAL MANAGEMENT PROFESSION, IT IS VERY LIKELY THAT FRIENDSHIP WILL LEAD YOU TO CHOOSE THEM TO TAKE CARE OF YOUR WEALTH. FARMLAND IS NOT JUST OWNED LARGELY BY OLDER PEOPLE, MUCH OF THE LAND IS ACQUIRED LATER IN LIFE AS AN INHERITANCE. THUS, ONE BIG REASON 30-SOMETHINGS DON’T RENT MORE LAND IS THEY DON’T HAVE THIRTY-SOMETHING FRIENDS WHO OWN LAND. TO BE SURE, THE SHIFT TO CASH RENT HAS DIMINISHED THIS EFFECT, BUT EVEN THE CHANCE TO BID ON LAND CAN DEPEND ON YOUR RELATIONSHIP WITH THE OWNER. I GOT THE CHANCE TO RENT SOME LAND ONLY AFTER PEOPLE I WENT TO HIGH SCHOOL WITH INHERITED IT. MOST FARMERS HAVE SIMILAR STORIES. ONE RULE I ALWAYS KEEP IN MIND IS THAT LANDOWNERS CHOOSE WHO WILL FARM, NOT FARMERS. AND WHILE IT MAY APPEAR UNFAIR, IT TURNS OUT THAT THE OLDER FARMERS WHO ARE RENTING ACRES ARE BETTER SEEN AS YOUNG FARMERS WHO AGED WHILE WAITING IN LINE FOR THIRTY YEARS. THANKS, JOHN.

TEASE
AS CATTLE PRODUCERS STRUGGLE TO SURVIVE THE VOLATILITY OF CATTLE MARKETS, THE INDUSTRY IS TURNING TO ONLINE TO PATCH THE PROBLEM. THAT’S OUR FARM JOURNAL REPORT AFTER THE BREAK.

HEADLINES
WELCOME BACK TO U-S FARM REPORT. WE HAVE MUCH MORE AHEAD. IT’S AN ONLINE AUCTION TRYING TO ERASE THE VOLATILITY IN THE CATTLE MARKET. WE HEAD OUT WEST WHERE BAXTER BLACK LOOKS ON TE BRIGHT SIDE OF THINGS. AND IN CUSTOMER SUPPORT, IT’S AN AMAZON EVOLUTION, CHANGING THE WAY FARMERS DO BUSINESS.

GORSUCH IN WASHINGTON
NOW FOR THE HEADLINES... A BUSY WEEK IN WASHINGTON INCLUDING FRESH CONFIRMATIONS AND NEW NOMINATIONS. PRESIDENT NAMING NEIL GORSUCH AS HIS PICK TO FILL THE VACANT SUPREME COURT SEAT. HE SPENT PART OF HIS WEEK MAKING THE ROUNDS ON CAPITOL HILL, MEETING WITH SENATE LEADERS. GORSUCH IS AN OUTDOORSMAN, WHO ENJOYS FLY- FISHING IN THE STREAMS OF COLORADO. COINCIDENTALLY, WATERS OF THE U-S COULD BE ONE OF THE FIRST ISSUES GORSUCH WOULD ADDRESS, IF HE IS CONFIRMED BY THE SENATE. :14 THE FACT THAT HE DOES COME FROM THE WESTERN UNITED STATES BODES WELL BECAUSE WHEN YOU LOOK AT THE WESTERN UNITED STATES AND THE RULES AND REGULATIONS ON OUR MEMBERS WHO RUN ON PERMITS ON FEDERAL LANDS. HAVING SOMEBODY WHO UNDERSTANDS THAT WOULD BE HELPFUL. :28

SMALL BUSINESS EXECUTIVE ORDER
ALSO THIS WEEK, PRESIDENT TRUMP SIGNING AN EXECUTIVE ORDER AIMED AT SMALL BUSINESSES. THE ORDER SAYS FOR EVERY NEW REGULATION ENACTED, TWO MUST BE ELIMINATED. AND PART OF THE EVALUATION WILL BE BASED ON COSTS--THE COST TO IMPLEMENT A RULE AND THE COST TO ENFORCE IT. RESEARCH FROM THE NATIONAL FEDERATION OF INDEPENDENT BUSINESS SAYS BUSINESS OWNERS HAVE LISTED REGULATIONS AS A TOP THREE CONCERN FOR 96 CONSECUTIVE MONTHS. RISING COSTS FROM INCREASED REGULATIONS AND COMPLIANCE IS HURTING SMALL RURAL BANKS. LENDER, FARMER MAC, GIVING US AN EARLY EXCLUSIVE OF THE RESULTS OF A RECENT STUDY ON THE HEALTH OF THE FARM ECONOMY. THE LENDOR SAYS MORE THAN 10 THOUSAND COMMUNITY BANKS HAVE EXITED SINCE 1984... LARGELY DUE TO FAILURE, MERGERS AND ACQUISITIONS. FARMERMAC WILL RELEASE THE FULL WINTER EDITION OF THE FEED ON MONDAY.

DES MOINES WATER WORKS
THE IOWA SUPREME COURT IS SIDING WITH THREE RURAL COUNTIES IN A LAWSUIT OVER ALLEGED FARM RUN-OFF. THE DES MOINES WATER WORKS SUED COUNTY SUPERVISORS AND DRAINAGE DISTRICTS IN THREE COUNTIES UP-STREAM OF IOWA’S BIGGEST CITY. THE UTILITY CLAIMS NITRATES FLOWING INTO TWO RIVERS THAT SUPPLY WATER TO DES MOINES ARE FROM FARM TILE. THE COURTS SIDED WITH THE WATER DISTRICTS. THE DECISION COULD HAVE OPENED THE DOOR FOR LAWSUITS AGAINST THREE THOUSAND DRAINAGE DISTRICTS NATIONWIDE.

DROUGHT MONITOR
AFTER A LONG STRETCH OF HEAVY SNOW AND WINTER RAINS, CALILFORNIA’S IMPORTANT SNOWPACK IS SHOWING HUGE ONE-MONTH GAINS. AND DROUGHT HAS ALL BUT DISAPPEARED. AT ONE SITE NEAR LAKE TAHOE, THE SNOW-WATER EQUIVALENCE MEASURED AT 28 INCHES. IN JANUARY, JUST SIX INCHES WAS FOUND THERE. SINCE 1964, THAT SPOT HAS AVERAGE ABOUT ELEVEN INCHES. STATEWIDE THE SNOWPACK HOLDS 31 INCHES OF WATER, THE LATEST DROUGHT MONITOR SHOWS 40-PERCENT OF THE STATE IS DROUGHT-FREE. AND JUST TWO PERCENT IS IN EXTREME DROUGHT.

DAIRY REVENUE INSURANCE
AG COMMITTEE LEADERS IN BOTH THE HOUSE AND SENATE ARE ALREADY PREPARING FOR WORK ON A NEW FARM BILL. MEANWHILE, FARM BUREAU, FARM BUREAU INSURANCE AND FOLKS FROM ACADEMIA ARE WRITING A NEW TYPE OF DAIRY REVENUE INSURANCE. THE PLAN OFFERS REGIONAL PROTECTION AGAINST BOTH MILK PRICE AND PRODUCTION DECLINES. IT’S BEING CALLED DAIRY REVENUE PROTECTION OR DAIRY - R-P. UNLIKE THE CURRENT MARGIN PROTECTION PROGRAM, IT FOCUSES ON PROTECTING REVENUE...SIMILAR TO CROP INSURANCE. THE DAIRY- R-P INSURANCE CONTRACTS WOULD BE QUARTERLY AND COULD BE BOUGHT UP TO 15 MONTHS OUTS. THE CONCEPT IS HEADED FOR THE USDA’S RISK MANAGEMENT AGENCY LATER THIS SPRING.

MASCHHOFFS UNDER INVESTIGATION
SPEAKING OF PORK, HORMEL FOODS STOPPING THE FLOW OF HOGS FROM AN OKLAHOMA SUPPLIER SEEN IN A NEWLY RELEASED ANIMAL RIGHTS VIDEO. THE FACILITY BELONGS TO THE MASCHHOFFS--ONE OF THE LARGEST PRODUCERS IN THE U.S. THE MASCHHOFFS SAY THEY’RE INVESTIGATING AND THEY DO NOT TOLERATE ANIMAL ABUSE. THEY PLAN TO RETRAIN ALL OF THEIR EMPLOYEES AT THAT SITE.

WEATHER
THAT’S IT FOR NEWS...METEOROLOGIST MIKE HOFFMAN JOINS US NOW WITH THE NATIONAL FORECAST. THANKS TYNE AS WE MOVE THROUGH THE LAST PART OF THIS WEEKEND WE ARE LOOKING AT A FAIRLY TRANQUIL WEATHER WHEN YOU HAVE A ZONA;L; FLOW ACROSS A COUNTRY THAT ‘S THE CASE BUT WE DO HAVE A STORM SYSTEM COMING OUT WES, A COUPLE OF THEM AS A MATTER OF FACT IN THAT WILL CHANGE THINGS THROUGH WHAT ‘S A JET STREAM A BIG DIP IN THE JET STREAM THERE PRETTY STRONG STORM FOR THE GREAT LAKES BY THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK THAT WILL THEN MOVE NORTHEAST QUICK SHOT OF ARCTIC AIR BEHIND IT AND THAT IS KIND OF A BATTLE IS WE HAD IN THE NEXT WEEK AND STILL SOME COLD AIR THROUGH THE NORTHERN TIER OF STATES BUT THE WARM AIR COMES BACK FOR THE SOUTH THERE ‘S ARTHUR OF MY THIRTY DAY OUTLOOK FOR TEMPERATIES, I’M GOING BELOW NORMAL FOR THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE PLAINS GREAT LAKES NORTHWARD ABOVE NORMAL FOR FLORIDA AND SOUTHERN TEXAS MOST OF THE SOUTHWEST PRECIPITATION OVER THE NEXT THIRTY DAYS OHIO VALLEY GREAT LAKES NORTHEAST NORTHWEST I’M GOING ABOVE NORMAL CENTRAL AND SOUTH FLORIDA LOUISIANA BACK THROUGH THE FOUR CORNER REGION EXPECTED TO BE BELOW NORMAL TYNE

FARM JOURNAL REPORT
THANKS MIKE. IT WAS GOOD WEATHER FOR THIS YEAR’S CATTLE INDUSTRY CONVENTION AND NCBA TRADESHOW IN NASHIVILLE TENNESEE. TRADE AND WASHINGTON POLICY A MAJOR POINT OF EMPHASIS AS A NEW ADMINISTRATION TAKES THE REINS. INDUSTRY FOLLOWERS SAY--LIKE IT HAS THE LAST COUPLE OF YEARS-- MUCH OF THE TALK CENTERED AROUND PRICES. THANKS, MIKE. VOLITALE CATTLE MARKETS PARALYZING THE INDUSTRY THE PAST YEAR. OFFICIALS TRYING TO FIX THE SSIE BY SHORTENING TRADING HOURS EVEN LOOKING AT HIGH FREQUENCY TRADING. BUT ONE GROUP OF OPERATORS DECIDED TO TO TAKE A DIFFERENT ROUTE, OPENING A CASH MARKET WITH A LIVE ONLINE AUCTION. WITH THE HELP OF OUR FRIENDS AT OKLAHOMA STATE, BETSY JIBBEN REPORTS SHOWS US HOW THE FED CATTLE EXCHANGE COULD BE A GAME CHANGER FOR CATTLE PRODUCERS FROM ALL ACROSS THE COUNTRY. THE DAYS OF RECORD HIGH CATTLE PRICES SEEN FROM 2013 TO 2015 ARE NOW MORE LIKE MEMORIES TO PRODUCRES.. BUT THE IMPACTS OF THE VOLATILITY STILL STING. <"I THINK PEOPLE ARE A LITTLE MORE OPTIMISTIC BUT I HTINK WE’RE ALSO CAUTIOUS BECUASE WE GOT BURNT SO BAD WITH THE PRICE DROP,"> DURING THAT TIME, A GROUP OF PRODUCERS WITH THE HELP OF SUPERIOR LIVESTOCK AUCTION DECIDED TO TAKE CHARGE OF THE PROBLEM BY ESTABLISHING A REALISTIC BASE PRICE FOR THE MARKET. THEIR IDEA... THE FED CATTLE EXCHANGE. <"WITH ADDITIONAL NEGOTIATED TRADE ON A TRANSPARENT PLATFORM LIKE FED CATTLE EXCHANGE, WE CAN HELP ELIMINATE SOME OF THE VOLITALITY THAT WE’RE SEEING IN OUR MARKET BOTH ON THE CASH SIDE AND FUTURES SIDE TO ALLOW US TO BE MORE EFFECTIVE PRODUCERS AND MORE EFFECTIVE RISK MANAGERS,"> IT’S AN ONLINE AUCTION- SIMILIAR TO AN E-BAY FOR CATTLE. FOR ONE-DOLLAR PER HEAD, PRODUCERS CAN SET A FLOOR PRICE AND ARE NOT FORCED TO SELL IF THE PRICE IS NOT MET. BIDS COME FROM PACKERS IN 25 CENT INCREMENTS. <"THE NEAT THING ABOUT THE PLATFORM IS THAT YOU CAN DO IT ONLINE OR FROM YOUR MOBILE DEVICE. SO, IF HTE FEEDYARD MANAGER IS THERE, HE CAN TAKE 3 PHOTOS, FILL IN THE REVELENT INFORMAITON AS IT RELATES TO THE LIVESTOCK, POST IT ON THE WEBSITE BEFORE 12 ON MONDAY FOR A SALE THAT WILL COMMENSE ON 10 AM ON WEDNESDAYS,"> THE TRANSACTIONS TAKE PLACE ON A COMPUTER SCREEN, IN REAL TIME. SOMETHING THAT WASN’T POSSIBLE EVEN A FEW YEARS AGO. <"IT’S ABOUT KNOWING WHERE THE CASH MARKET IS AT ALL TIMES AND THAT YOU CAN HELP YOU MAKE A LOT OF DECISIONS ON YOUR OWN NO MATTER WHAT PART OF THE INDUSTRY YOU’RE IN,"> THE FED CATTLE EXCHANGE REALLY TOOK OFF WHEN USDA INCLUDED SALE RESULTS IN THE LIVESTOCK MANDATORY REPORTING PROGRAM IN OCTOBER. ****NOW THE AVERAGE SALE VOLUME IS ROUGHLY 65- HUNDRED TO 7 THOUSAND HEAD EACH AUCTION. MULTIPLE STATES ARE ACTIVELY PARTICIPATING SO ARE THE MAJOR PACKERS AND SOME REGIONAL ONES ARE TOO. PACKERS CAN VISIT THE CATTLE BEFOREHAND SINCE PRODUCERS MAY POST SEVERAL DAYS AHEAD OF THE AUCTION. <"THE SMALLER GUYS BENEFIT AS WELL. THERE ARE GUYS IN THE NORTH LIKE IN SOUTH DAKOTA THAT ARE FARMER-FEEDERS THAT HAVE REALLY GOOD CATTLE. A LOT CAN BE HOMERAISED. CATTLE THAT ARE AS HIGH QUALITY AS ANY IN THE COUNTRY. THESE GUYS BENEFIT FROM THE BUYER EXPOSURE THEY WOULDN’T NORMALLY GET."> <"THAT’S WHAT THE FCE IS TRYING TO DO - DEFINE THE VALUE FOR DIFFERENT CLASSES OF CATTLE IN DIFFERENT REGIONS DURING DIFFERENT MARKETING FUNDAMENTALS."> EVEN THOUGH THE FED CATTEL EXCHANGE IS ONLY A FRACTION OF THE U.S. CATTLE VOLUME- BOTH BELIEVE IT’S CREATED A MORE LEVEL PLAYING FIELD. <"I BELIEVE IT’S MADE A TREMENDOUS IMPACT ON THE AMOUNT OF VOLITALITY IN THE MARKETS, AS FAR AS CREATING MORE DATA POINTS FOR THE INDUSTRY TO TRADE THEIR CATTLE OFF OF,"> <"YOU CAN TELL A LOT OF TRADERS FROM CHICAGO WATCH THIS,"> <"AS FAR AS THE MARKET TRANSPARENCY GOES, THIS IS A STEP IN THE RIGHT DIRECTION. IF WE CAN CONTINUE TO MOVE IT FORWARD, WE WILL HAVE A LOT OF POTENTIAL THERE FOR THE MARKET GUYS AND PRODUCER GUYS. THE HEDGERS, THE ENDUSERS, ANYONE INVOLVED IN THE MARKET,"> VANDYKE WATCHES THE EXCHANGE FROM HIS OFFICE IN CHICAGO. HE BELIEVES IT’S A GOOD START TO IMPROVING THE CATTLE MARKET. <"IF YOU PULL UP THE AUCTION, PULL UP THE FUTURES AT THE SAME TIME, THERE’S NO DOUBT IN MY MIND IT’S WATCHING. YOU CAN SEE THE FUTURES REACTION AS PRICE CHANGES,"> PRODUCERS HOPE FOR MORE OF THAT TRANSPARENCY...<"BEFORE IT WAS ALMOST A PHONE CALL OR WORD OF MOUTH ASKING, ‘WHAT DID YOU GET FOR CATTLE?’ ‘WHAT WERE YOU BEING OFFERED?’ NOW IT’S RIGHT OUT THERE AND EVERYONE CAN SEE IT."> TO ERASE THE WILD SWINGS IN THE CATTLE TRADE. REPORTING FOR AGDAY, I’M BETSY JIBBEN. THANKS BETSY. LEVI PROPOSED THE IDEA OF AN ONLINE AUCTION FOR FED CATTLE AT A COMMITTEE MEETING BACK IN ’15. THE IDEA REALLY GRABBED ATTENTION AT NCBA’S ANNUAL MEETING LAST YEAR. THAT’S WHEN SUPERIOR LIVESTOCK DECIDED TO PARTICIPATE TO CREATE THE PLATFORM.

TEASE
UP NEXT, JOHN PHIPPS. S

JOHN’S WORLD
LAST WEEK, JOHN TALKED ABOUT AMAZON, AND THE AMAZING ACCESS IT’S PROVIDED FOR RURAL AMERICA. BUT IT’S AN EVOLUTION ALREADY CHANGING THE WAY SOME FARMERS AND RANCHERS DO BUSINESS. MY COMMENTS ABOUT AMAZON AND THE FUTURE OF RETAIL PROMPTED THIS TWEET FROM RANDY UHRMACHER: “LOOKING THROUGH AMAZON WHILE WATCHING US FARM REPORT AND PHIPPS COMES ON TALKING ABOUT THE RAMIFICATIONS OF DOING THAT…HMMM.” FOR THOSE NOT FAMILIAR WITH TWEETS, ANYTHING WITH AN @ SYMBOL IS LIKE YOUR EMAIL NAME. RANDY GOES ON: “I SEE SHOPPING FOR AG INPUTS THIS WAY NOW TOO. THAT IS GOOD AND BAD ALL AT THE SAME TIME.” I TWEETED BACK: “AGREE. NOT SURE WHAT IT MEANS OTHER THAN BEING ABLE TO CHOOSE EXACTLY WHAT I WANT AND NOT LEAVE HOME IS ADDICTIVE.” HIS REPLY: “YES, IT IS. I DON’T GET “WALMART RAGE” AS MUCH NOW. OK, I’M NOT SURE WHAT WALMART RAGE IS BUT THEN IT GOT INTERESTING AS PAUL ANDERSON JOINED THE CONVERSATION."I USE AMAZON EMAIL GIFT CARDS TO PAY FOR SMALL ITEMS I FIND ON AGTALK CLASSIFIEDS, NO TRANSACTION FEES.” AND HE ADDED: “BOUGHT A $200 USED AIR SEEDER MONITOR SYSTEM. JUST EMAILED A GIFT CARD. DONE.” THIS IS BRILLIANT. AMAZON WILL ISSUE A GIFT CARD FOR THE FULL AMOUNT YOU PAY AND IT CAN BE SENT ANYWHERE AND REDEEMED BY THE RECIPIENT FOR THE FULL AMOUNT - AT AMAZON, OF COURSE. VERY SLICK, AND A PERFECT EXAMPLE OF HOW ON-LINE COMMERCE IS CHANGING OUR PROFESSION. I’LL TALK MORE ABOUT THE AG INPUT ANGLE SOON, AND IN THE MEANTIME, YOU GUYS SEND ME SOME ADDRESSES IF YOU WANT MUGS. YOU’VE EARNED THEM. THANKS, SO MUCH JOHN. IF YOU HAVE QUESTIONS OR COMEMNTS, YOU CAN REACH OUT TO JOHN ON TWITTER, OR HERE’S OUR EMAIL ADDRESS... MAILBAG AT U-S FARM REPORT DOT COM. WHEN WE COME BACK, BAXTER BLACK.

BAXTER BLACK
BAXTER BLACK WAS A POPULAR FIGURE AT NATIONAL CATTLEMAN’S BEEF ASSOCIAITON ANNUAL CONVENTION THIS WEEK. BUT HE JOINS US TO TALK ABOUT LOOKING AT THINGS WITH YOUR GLASS HALF FULL. THERE ALWAYS SEEMED TO BE FOLKS WHO NEED TO SAY SOMETHING GOOD EVEN IN THE WORST OF TIMES LIKE MRS CUSTER MIGHT HAVE SAID WELL YOU KNOW ON THE BRIGHT SIDE AT LEAST HE WAS WE WEARING CLEAN UNDIES ONE THIS SPRING GATHER WE WENT OUT FINE OF THREE HUNDRED POUND STEER THAT HAD EVADED US. WE NAMED HIM ROMPY. WE NEVER FOUND HIM THAT DAY BUT WE DID DISCOVER A LEAK IN THE WATER LINE WHICH ON THE BRIGHT SIDE MADE THE RIDE WORTH IT. WELL THE NEXT DAY WE WENT OUT EARLY AND FOUND HIM WITH SOME CATTLE. ALL WENT WELL AND WE SORTED HIM OFF AND HAULED HIME TO THE HEADQUARTERS HERE TO HOLD HIM OVERNIGHT FOR THE SALE. THE NEXT DAY A PRETTY GOOD MORNING I WAS THINKING GOSH AND THEN ROMPY CAME UNGLUED, HE COULD SEE DAYLIGHT THROUGH THIS PIPE GATE AND INTO THE LOADING ALLEY. IT TOOK FOUR RUNS AT IT AND I RAN AROUND THE FRONT TO FRIGHTEN HIM BACK AND IT DIDNT WORK AND ON HIS FIFTH TRY HE CRUSHED OPEN I DOVE OUT OF THE WAY AND I LOOKED BACK AS HE SAILED OVER ME OVER MY SHOULDER AND I REMEMBER THINKING THIS MUST BE ONE OF A TORPEDO LOOK LIKE WHEN IT ‘S LEAVING THE SUBMARINE WELL WE’RE FINALLY GOT HIM CALLED AGAIN AND HOG TIED BUT WHERE WE WERE WAS UNREACHABLE BY A TRAILER THAT I WROTE BACK HERE OF MY HORSE AND HIM AND GOT THE PICK UP AND WENT BACK DOWN TO GET THE BOYS AND ROMPY. WELL HE WAS TOO HEAVY TO LIFT AND HE WAS STILL ON THE FIGHT SO AFTER MUCH COWBOY COGITATION WE TOOK TO EIGHT FOOT TWO BY TWELVE AND LATER A E TRIED TO PUSH HIM UP THE BOARDS BUT HE DIDN’T SLIDE SO I DUG MY BOX OF RESCUE STUFF AND CAME UP WITH THE COME ALONG WE CHAINED IT OVER THE GOOSENECK TURNOVER BALL AND PULLED A CABLE BETWEEN THE BOARDS AND RAN IT THROUGH A ‘S SOFT ROPE WE’D PUT OVER THE HOG TIE AND BEGAN CRANKING. I PUSHED AND WE DRUG ROMPY INTO THE BED OF THE PICKUP AN INCH AND A GRUNT AND A TIE THREE OF US LOOKED LIKE WE’D BEEN DRUG THROUGH A KNOT HOLE ON THE BRIGHT SIDE HE GOT AWAY FIVE HUNDRED POUNDS OR WE COULD HAVE BEEN A GREAT FARMERS AND WE HAVE NEVER BEEN A BELOW THE THREE HUNDRED POUND RAISIN THERES NOTHING TO TIE THIS IS BAXTER BLACK FROM OUT OF HIS MIND OUT THERE

TEASE
THANKS, BAXTER. TO HEAR MORE, VISIT BAXTER BLACK DOT COM. MACHINERY PETE CALLS THIS TRACTOR THE HOLY GRAIL OF TRACTORS. IT’S JUST SHY OF 40 YEARS OLD, WITH LESS THAN 30 HOURS ON IT AND STILL SMELLS BRAND NEW. THAT’S TRACTOR TALES, NEXT.

TRACTOR TALES
WELCOME BACK TO TRACTOR TALES FOLKS I TELL YOU THIS WEEK I THINK WE FOUND THE HOLY GRAIL YOU’VE GOT A NINETEEN EIGHTY ONE JOHN DEERE FORTY FOUR FORTY TWENTY SIX HOURS ON IT WAS THE TWO MILLIONTH TRACTOR THAT CAME OFF THE LINE IN WATERLOO AND I’M HERE WITH PHIL LAUER PRODUCT MANAGER WITH JOHN DEERE AT THE JOHN DEERE EXPO AND PHIL, THIS IS SOME TRACTOR THANK YOU, YEAH IT IS REALLY A UNIQUE PIECE THE TWO MILLIONTH TRACTOR MADE OUT OF THE WATERLOO TRACTOR FACTORY AND IT JUST HAPPENS TO BE A FORTY FOUR MY DAD HAD A FORTY THREE TWENTY AND THEN HE TRADED THAT AND GOT A FORTY FOUR FOUR FOURTY IN THAT ERA THAT WAS OUR FIRST CAB TRACTOR BECAUSE OF THE TRACTORS SIGNIFICANCE TO JOHN DEERE HALL. WE’VE NEVER SOLD THE TRACTOR WE KEPT IT AND STORED IT IN AN ARCHIVE FACILITY THAT WE HAVE AND SO THE TRACTOR ‘S JUST KIND OF BEEN KEPT UNDER WRAPS SO AS WE WE TALKED ABOUT THE JOHN DEERE EXPO FOR OUR DEALERS AND FOCUSING ON PARTS AND SERVICE WHERE WE BROUGHT THESE, AN OLDER TRACTOR THIS THING AND NOW IT ‘S THIRTY FIVE YEARS OLD AND PEOPLE TALK AND LAUGH ABOUT TIME MACHINES BUT THAT ‘S WHAT WE CAN HAVE HERE. ‘S A OH YEAH YEAH IT ‘S IT ‘S JUST LIKE IT WAS THE DAY THEY WERE BUILT FROM THOSE OF YOU EITHER HAD EM OR DROVE EM THEY JUST GET A NEW CAR. ‘S GOT THE SAME NEW TRACTOR SMELL THAT THEY HAD PEOPLE WANT US CONNECT TO THE OLD CLASSIC AND HISTORIC JOHN DEERE TRACTORS THERE ARE COUPLE PLACES THEY CAN GO ALL RIGHT. CERTAINLY THERE ‘S A COUPLE OPPORTUNITIES SO THE JUDGE UNDER PAVILION IN MOLENE THEY HAVE DIFFERENT EXHIBITS FROM TIME TO TIME THERE ‘S A NEW PRODUCT BUT THEY’LL HAVE SOME OLD OLD VEHICLES ON DISPLAY HERE AND THEN ANOTHER ONE. A NEWER ONE IS THE JOHN DEERE TRACTOR AND ENGINE MUSEUM IN WATERLOO. JUST JUST WAS RECENTLY OPENED UP WILL BE ANOTHER GREAT OPPORTUNITY TO SEE SOME CLASSIC OR UNIQUE TRACTORS AND NONE OF MY BUSINESS WITH JOHN DEERE BUT IM TELLING YOU IF THEY BOUGHT THIS TRACTOR ANYWHERE YOU KNOW FOLKS YOU COME TO SEE THIS THING AND THANKS AGAIN FOR SHARING US WITH INFORMATION ON THIS AGAIN THE TWO MILLIONTH TRACTOR OFF LINE IN WATERLOO PHIL, JUST FUN TO BE THERE.

COUNTRY CHURCH SALUTE
THIS WEEK’S COUNTRY CHURCH SALUTE GOES TO THE PALISADE LUTHERAN CHURCH IN RURAL ROCK COUNTRY MINNESOTA, JUST NORTH OF BEAVER CREEK. CHECK OUT THIS ARIEL VIEW OF A CHURCH CELEBRATING IT’S 143RD BIRTHDAY THIS YEAR. THE CHURCH JUST RECEIVED AN UPDATED LOOK, WITH NEW SIDING LAST YEAR. THEY HAVE 163 BAPTIZED MEMBERS AND THE CONGREGATION TELLS ME THEY’RE EXTREMELY GRATEFUL FOR A GREAT PASTOR, AND MEMBERS. OUR THANKS TO PETER BAKKEN FOR SHARING THEIR STORY. AS ALWAYS WE WANT TO LEARN ABOUT YOUR HOME CHURCH AS WELL... SALUTES CAN BE SENT TO THE ADDRESS ON THE SCREEN. STAY WITH US - FROM THE FARM PHOTOS ARE NEXT.

FROM THE FARM
WELCOME BACK. KIM IN ILLINOIS EMAILED US THIS PICTURE. SHE SAYS IT’S CALVING SEASON WHERE SHE IS.DURING HTE MONTH OF JANUARY,T HE WET MUDDY CONDITINOS IN WEST CENTRAL ILLINOIS CAUSED CALING SEASONT O BE MESSY. THIS YOUNG ANGUS CALF BORN IN JANUARY FOUDN IS HWAY TO HIGHER GROUND CLIMBING INSIDE THE HAY RING. GREG POSTED THIS PICTURE ON TWITTER, SAYING WHEAT ISN’T POPULAR, BUT SINCE HE PLANTED IT, HE THINKS IT’S TIME TO GIVE IT A SHOT OF NITROGEN. RYAN SAYS IT’S LUNCH TIME AT THE HAY BUFFET. ALRIGHT. WE RECEIVED A QUESTION FROM A VIEWER DENNIS PATTERSON SAYS. WHEN METEOROLGOISTS REPORT ANNUAL RAINFALL COMPARED WITH HISTORICAL AVERAGES HOW MANY YEARS BACK ARE CONSIDERED IN THE AVERAGENORMAL IS ALWAYS A THIRTY YEAR PERIOD THE PREVIOUS DECADE ‘S, SO IN OTHERWORDS, RIGHT NOW WE’RE WORKING ON NINETEEN EIGHTY ONE THROUGH TWO THOUSAND TEN. IN TWENTY TWENTY WE WILL CHANGE THAT IN NINETEEN NINETY ONE THROUGH TWENTY TWENTY FOR THE NEXT TEN YEARS SO IT ‘S ALWAYS A THIRTY YEAR AVERAGE FROM THE PREVIOUS THREE DECADES I DID NOT KNOW THAT THAT IS HOPEFULLY THAT ANSWERS YOUR QUESTION IF NOT, SHOOT US A NOTE BACK AND I’LL ASK HIM AGAIN ENXT WEEK. WHELL IF YOU AHVE A PHOTO OF VIDEO YOU WOULD LIEK TO SEND IN, SEND THOSE TO MAILBAG AT U S FARM REPORT DOT COM OR CHECK US OUT ON FACEBOOK OR TWITTER

CLOSE
FOR ALL OF US THAT U S FARM REPORT THANK YOU SO MUCH FOR WATCHING BE SURE TO JOIN US AGAIN ARE RIGHT HERE NEXT WEEK AS WE WORK TO BUILD ON OUR TRADITION HAVE A GREAT WEEKEND. EVERYONE