TODAY ON U.S. FARM REPORT
OCTOBER 22, 2016
HEADLINES
WELCOME TO U.S. FARM REPORT. I’M TYNE MORGAN, AND HERE’S WHAT WE’RE WORKING ON FOR YOU OVER THE NEXT 60 MINUTES. AS CROP PRICES STRUGGLE, MORE FARMERS ARE WILLING TO WALK AWAY FROM PRICEY CASH RENTS?
STERLING PROFIT TRACKER
NOW FOR THE NEWS THE MARKET RELATED NEWS, THE NATION’S FEEDYARDS ARE LOSING AN AVERAGE OF 248 DOLLARS PER HEAD RIGHT NOW. THAT CUT IS 159 DEEPER THAN A MONTH AGO. THE NATION’S FEEDYARDS SAW SHARP LOSSES THIS WEEK. ACCORDING TO OUR REPORTING PARTNERS AT DROVERS, THE LATEST STERLING PROFIT TRACKER SHOWING THOSE LOSSEAS AS THE CASH PRICES DIPPED BELOW 98 DOLLARS PER HUNDRED WEIGHT. THAT’S THE FIRST TIME THOSE PRICES FELL BELOW THE 100 DOLLAR MARK SINCE DECEMBER OF 2010.
PORK LOSSES
FARROW TO FINISH PORK PRODUCERS ALSO SEEING LOSSES, AT 45 DOLLARS PER HEAD. THAT COMPARES THE THE 15 DOLLARS PER HEAD LOSSES PRODUCERS SAW LAST MONTH. SLOWER CHINESE IMPORTS ARE PRESSURING PORK PRICES ACROSS THE GLOBE. RABOBANK THINKS THE PAIN ISN’T OVER, EXPECTING FURTHER PRICE DECLINES DURING THE 4TH QUARTER. THE BANK CITING ABUINDANT SUPPLY AND SLAUGHTER CAPACITY CONSTRAINTS. RABOBANK’S Q-4 OUTLOOK DOES PIONT TO PORK PRICES REBOUDNING IN CHINA AND A INCREASE IN SEASONAL DEMAND ENTERING THE CHINCESE NEW YEAR. BUT AS MORE COUNTRIES EXPORT PORK, RABOBANK WARNS THERE WILL BE MORE PLAYERS COMPETITING FOR CHINA’S BUSINESS. CHINESE OFFICIALS SAID AGAIN THIS WEEK THE COUNTRY PLANS TO CUT CORN ACRES AND RAISE SOYBEAN ACRES OVER THE NEXT 5 YEARS. THEY SAY THIS WILL HELP THEM BETTER MEET DEMAND. ALSO OUT OF CHINA, THE COUNTRY IS HALTING ITS WEEKLY STATE CORN SALES UNTIL MAY. THE NATIONAL GRAIN TRADE CENTER SAYS IT’S TO HELP ENCOURAGE COMPANIES TO BUY THE CROP CURRENTLY BEING HARVESTED. REMEMBER, CHINA ENDED ITS STATE STOCKPILING PROGRAM OF CORN THIS YEAR. AND THE COUNTRY SAYS IT STILL HAS MORE THAN 200 MILLION METRIC TONNES OF CORN LEFT TO SELL, BUT SOME ANALYSTS THINK THOSE PILES MAY BE LARGER THAN ADVERTISED.
INDIA OIL IMPORTS
INDIA’S IMPORTS OF THE OIL QUADRUPLED IN JUST THE PAST FIVE YEARS. THIS IS PARTIALLY DUE TO THE FACT SOYBEAN OIL IS A MORE ATTRACTIVE OPTION, AS A GLUT HAS MADE THE OIL MORE AFFORDABLE COMPARED TO PALM OIL. JOHN PAYNE SAYS THE RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN SOY AND PALM OIL IS ALSO WHAT’S CARRYING SOYBEAN PRICES RIGHT NOW.
WEATHER
THOSE ARE THE HEADLINES...METEOROLOGIST MIKE HOFFMAN JOINS US NOW WITH WEATHER... MIKE, WE’RE SEEING SOME HARVEST DELAYS IN THE WEST FROM TOO MUCH MOISTURE. SOME OF OUR VIEWERS ARE GETTING A LITTLE WORRIED. THANKS TYNE, WELL AS YOU’RE GOIN TO SEE ON THE WEATHER MAPS WE STILL HAVE SOME MOISTURE SEVERAL STORM SYSTEMS COMING IN OVER THE NEXT WEEK WEEK AND A HALF ON THE WEST COAST STILL DRY AND IT’S IT’S BEEN EXPANDING OVER THE SOUTHEAST STILL DRY OVER THE NORTHEAST OF COURSE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA DRY ALTHOUGH YOU FOLKS ARE PROBABLY GOING TO GET SOME RAIN THIS WEEK THE LET’S GO BACKA MONTH AND A SEE HOW THINGS HAVE GOTTEN A LITTLE WORSE, A LITTLE DRYER THROUGH THE SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND JUST SEEMS LIKE THIS AREA IN THE SOUTHEAST IN GETTING YOU A TROPICAL MOISTURE TO THE STAND EARLIER IN THE SEASON NONE OF THAT TROPICAL MOISTURE TO THE WEST SO THAT’S WHY YOU’VE REMAINED SO DRY. LET’S TAKE A LOOK AT THINGS IS WE HAVE THROUGH THIS WEAK STORM SYSTEM OVER THE NEW ENGLAND AREA COLD FRONT DOWN THROUGH THE APPALLACHIANS AS WE START THE WEEK DON’T BE SO SLOW IN EASTERN PORTIONS OF CANADA MAINLY RAIN NOW IN THE NORTHEASTERN PORTIONS OF THE UNITED STATES WARM AND SUNNY IN THE SOUTHEAST COOL AND DRY THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE COUNTRY COUPLE OF STORM SYSTEMS OUT WEST THINGS WILL BE COMING TOGETHER TO FORM ONE OVER THE MIDDLE OF THE COUNTRY BY WEDNESDAY BUT IN THE MEANTIME THAT’S GOING TO BE PUTTING DOWN SOME PRETTY GOOD RAIN ON MONDAY NORTHERN CALIFORNIA INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST BY WEDNESDAY THEN THAT FIRST STORM SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH NEBRASKA OR AT LEAST THE NORTH CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE PLAINS STATES RAIN WITH THAT SYSTEM SHOWERS AND STORMS SOUTH OF IT ANOTHER SYSTEM ARE UP AWFULLY A PACIFIC NORTHWEST AS WELL AND THEN THE BIG ONE COMES INTO THE WEST COAST LATER ON NEXT WEEK OR INTO THE FOLLOWING WEEK AND THAT’S ALL BE WATCHING OTHERWISE GENERALLY DRY EXCEPT IN A NORTHEASTERN YOU FOLKS TO BE SEEN AT NEXT RAHM SYSTEM AS WELL WILL BE BACK IN OUR NEXT HALF HOUR WITH A LONGER RANGE FORECAST
TEASE
THANKS, MIKE. WHEN WE COME BACK, GRAINS AND OILSEEDS SEEING SOME LIFE EARLIER THIS WEEK. WE’LL FIND OUT WHAT’S CAUSING THE HARVEST RALLY. TOMMY GRISAFI AND MIKE NORTH JOIN ME AFTER THE BREAK. U-S FARM REPORT BROUGH TTO YOU BY MYCOGEN SEEDS. VISIT MYCOGEN DOT COM OR YOUR LOCAL MYGOGEN SEEDS DEALER TO LEARN MORE ABOUT OUR RELENTLESS DEDICATION TO YOU.
ROUNDTABLE 1
WELCOME BACK TO U.S FARM REPORT. TOMMY GRISAFI AND MIKE NORHT ON THE ROUNDTABLE WITH ME THIS WEEK. ALRIGHT, LET’S TALK ABOUT HTIS WIDE BASIS. HOW DO YOU MANAGE IT AS WE SEE CORN PRICES IN SOYBEAN PRICES GET SOME LIFE HERE I THINK, TO START OFF THE CHALLENGE OF THE BASIS IS THAT YOU YOU ASSUME EARLIER IN THE YEAR YOU’RE DEALING WITH AN AVERAGE CROP AND IT’S REALLY HARD TO CONVINCE THE FARMER THAT THEY’RE OR WHO COULD DO IT WHO COULD THAT YOU KNOW COULD PREDICT WE’RE GOING HAVE THE BUSHELS WE’RE HAVING HERE IS WE DO AND SO FARMERS IN GENERAL I WAS THINKING MY CLIENTS, I DON’T KNOW ABOUT YOURS, BUT THEY TRY TO KILL THEIR CROP TWO OR THREE TIMES A YEARTELL THEM, HEY GUESS WHAT PLAN FOR HAVING A BIG CROP LOCK IN THE BASIS. DO THIS, DO THAT. THEY’RE THEY DON’T REALIZE UNTIL THE BUSHES SHOW UPNOW THE BUSHELS AND HERE THE BASIS IS WIDENING AND I DON’T THINK GROWERS WERE HAPPY ABOUT IT BUT IT’S A PRODUCT OF THE RECORD CROPSO WHAT CAN YOU DO WHAT ELSE CAN YOU USE RIGHT NOW REALLY ABOUT THE ONLY TOOL YOU HAVE IN YOUR IN YOUR ARSENAL IS STORAGE BECAUSE WE’RE ASKING THE BUYER TO DRINK FROM THE FIRE HYDRANT WHEN IT COMES TO THE VOLUME AND THE REALITY IS IS THERE IS NONE OF STORAGE IN THIS COUNTRY TO HANDLE A BIG CARRY IN, PLUS A RECORD CROP PLUS RECORD WHEAT INVENTORIES AND JUST PUSH AL OUT OF THE SYSTEM IT CAN IT CAN HAPPEN AS A BASIS WIDENS, THE ONLY WAY TO REALLY NAVIGATE THAT IS WITH YOUR OWN STORAGE SO THAT AS THE BUYER AS BACK IN A PLACE WHERE THEY CAN COME BACK TO THE FOUNTAIN FOR ANOTHER DRINK YOU’LL HAVE THE BUSHELS AND AT THAT POINT THOUGH USUALLY BE WILLING TO PAY PAY AND YOUR OUR VIEWERS IN THE WESTERN CORN BELT THEY’VE HAD SOME HARVEST DELAYS I THINK YOU KNOW IN CERTAIN POCKETS SOME OF THOSE FARMERS WERE GETTING PRETTY PRETTY WORRIED RIGHT NOW SO HOW DO YOU MANAGE THOSE EMOTIONS WHEN YOU’RE WORRIED ABOUT GETTING THIS CROP IN YOU KNOW YOU DO SEE A LITTLE BIT OF A RALLY BUT AT THE SAME TIME WE HAVE THIS RECORD CROP ON OUR HANDS YOU KNOW WHAT YOUR ADVICE FOR THATBUT THIS POINT IN THE YEAR, A FARMER HAS THE LEAST AMOUNT OF MONEY THEY HAVE NOW RECENTLY THEY START SELLING SOYBEANS OFF THE COMBINE AND YOU RECEIVED AN ARC PAYMENT BUT THAT IT’S A IT MUST BE VERY EMOTIONAL I PERSONALLY NEVER HAD A MILLION DOLLARS WORTH OF SOYBEANS SITTING IN A FIELD AND COULDN’T HARVEST THEM THEY THEY’RE THEY’RE VERY ANTSY TO GET TO THE CROP I MEAN YU COULD JUST SUPPORT THE GUYS ONE THING I CAN TELL YOU IS THAT THE TECHNOLOGY IS THERE TO GO GET IT THEY CAN WORK AROUND THE CLOCK BUT IF THE FIELDS ARE WET, THERE’S STILL NO SUPER DUPER TRACTOR THAT GOES HAND IN THE MUD GET IT SO YOU JUST SIT HERE AND WAIT I THINK THAT PART THE REASON SOY BEANS HAVE RALLIED IS ALTHOUGH IT’S A RECORD CROP IT’S IT’S IT’S COME IN IN IN A LOT MORE ORGANIZED THEN NOW THIS CORN CROPS COMING IN THE BACK AND IT’S ALL A BIT CHAOTIC WHY ELSE ARE SOYBEANS RALLY IN A MINUTE YOU KNOW YOU LOOK AT PALM OIL AND I KNOW IT’S CARRYING SOY OIL RIGHT NOW WHICH IS CARRYING SOYBEANS HIGHER BUT IT THE SAME TIME FOR SOYOIL TO LEAD THAT INSTEAD OF SOYBEAN MEAL IT’S A LITTLE ODD SO IS THAT IS THAT SUSTAINABLE LONG TERM KEY AND SO IT WILL CONTINUE TO CARRY THE SOYBEAN PRICES HIGHERI DON’T THINK SO AND THE REALITY OF IT IS WE’VE ALSO GOTTEN A LITTLE DRUNK ON THE FACT THAT THE EXPORTS HAVE BEEN VERY STRONG AND THAT HAS TO BE THE CASE THIS TIME OF THE YEAR WE ORDINARILY WILL EXPORT NEARLY TWO THIRDS OF OUR BUSHELS IN THE FALL AND SO WHEN WE LOOK AT ALL OF THESE THINGS STACKING UP ON TOP OF EACH OTHER TIME WE’VE HAD A NICE LITTLE CAUSE FOR A RALLY FUNDS HAVE COME BACK AND THEY’VE ADDED THEIR POSITION SO THAT THAT IS CARRIED A LITTLE BIT OF WATER TOO BUT BOTTOM LINE THOUGH, NO, THE PALM OIL CAN CARRY IT FOREVER IN AND WE CAN ONLY RUN IT SO FAR DO YOU THINK THIS THIS HARVEST RALLY THAT WE EXPERIENCE RIGHT NOW DO YOU THINK IT CAN LAST VERY LONG IT IF IT DOES AND WE’RE GONNA LOOK BACK AT THE SHOW AND SAY WE DIDN’T REALIZE THERE WAS SOMETHING ELSE GOING ON WITHIN REALIZE THAT MARKET WAS NERVOUS ABOUT THE ELECTION WITHIN RELY SOUTH AMERICA WAS HAVING A WEATHER PROBLEM IN SO MARKETS THEIR FUTURES MARKETS TO GET AHEAD OF THEMSELVES ANDI ALSO THINK TYNE THAT THE MARKET WAS PACKED PENALIZED FOR YOU WE HAD RECORD SETTING CROP LAST YEAR OF THE FUND SO THAT THE FARMER SOLD IT, THEY SOLD AHEAD, SO THEY WERE PEANALIZED FOR IT. LET THIS YEAR WE HAD THE MOST HATED SOYBEAN RALLY IN HISTORY AND IT’S JUST WHILE THE SEA A FARMER WHO COMMITTED TO SIGN A CROP THAT SUCH A LOW PRICE FOR HAVING SOME ELSE MAY HAVE SPECIAL WARMTH SO I THINK THE MARKET HAS A LITTLE BIT MORE I THINK THE FARMER SELLING SLOWER THIS TIME IN SOYBEANS FOR TWENTY SEVENTEEN WERE SEENING HIS RALLY BUT IT’S THE SAME TIME I AM A NO ADVANCE TRADING CALL OUT THE FACT THAT CORN PRICES TODAY ARE STILL LOWER THAN WE WERE A YEAR AGO SO LET’S LOOK AT THE BIGGER PICTURE RIGHT NOW WE’RE STILL TRADING LOWER THAN WE WERE WERE THIS TIME IN 2015 ABSOLUTELY AND AND REALLY WHEN YOU LOOK AT THE BIG PICTURE FROM A TECHNICAL PERSPECTIVE WE REALLY LOVE THE THREE TO TWO FOUR FIFTY RANGE OVER THE LAST DECADE HAS BECOME A REALLY COMFORTABLE ZONE FOR USWITH SPOT MARKETS HANGING AROUND THREE FIFTY THAT’S BEEN KIND OF A SECONDARY PIVOT POINT I WOULD SAY THAT YOU KNOW IF THE RALLY IS GOING TO CONTINUEYOU SHOULD LOOK FOR RESISTANCE AS WE APPROACH FOUR DOLLARS THREE.80 AND IN SOME OF THOSE IN THOSE BIGGER NUMBERS THE FACT THAT WE’RE LOWER IS ONLY A FUNCTION OF OF THE ADDED SUPPLY LAST YEAR AT THIS TIME WE’RE TALKING ABOUT A ONE POINT SEVEN BILLION CARRYOUT .
ROUNDTABLE 2
WELCOME BACK WELL BEFORE WE MOVE TO LIVESTOCK, IN CHINAOFFICIALS ANNOUNCED THAT THEY’RE GOING TO LOWER THEIR CORN ACRES AND RAISE THEIR SOYBEAN ACRES OVER THE NEXT FIVE YEARS WE’VE HEARD THAT BEFORE BUT ALSO SAYING THEY’RE GOING TO HALT SENDING OUT SOME OF THIS CORN IN THEIR STOCKPILES SAYING THAT THEY WANT PEOPLE BY THE CURRENT COURT WITH BEING HARVESTED CURRENTLY IS OT REALLY THAT MIKE?OR IS THIS CORN THAT’S IN STOCKPILE THE QUALITY IS JUST SO POOR THEY CAN’T GET RID OF CHINESE INFORMATION ALWAYS HAS TO BE READ WITH A DEGREE OF SCRUTINY AND SO THE REALITY OF IT IS IS THERE IS PROBABLY TRUE SOMEWHERE IN THE MIDDLE OF ALL THAT THEY REMEMBER ARE A GROWING COUNTRY THERE ARE MIDDLE CLASS CONTINUES TO GROW THEIR SPENDING POWER CONTINUES TO GROW THAT MEANS THEY NEED MORE PROTEIN THAT’S WHY THEY’RE RAISING MORE SOYBEANS THAT’S THAT THAT’S THAT’S CRUCIAL FOR THEIR GROWING HOG INDUSTRY AND POULTRY OPERATIONS THE REALITY IS THAT THEY DON’T WANT TO ULTIMATELY TRY TOFORCE THEIR HAND ON CORN WHEN THEY HAVE AN OPPORTUNITY TO BUY A TEN YEAR LOWS WHAT WHY? PICKED UP THAT INVENTORY NOW IF THE NEWS DEVELOPS LATER AROUND YOUR SHRINKING CORN CROP OR DROUGHT IN THE UNITED STATES THEN WE HAVE THE INVENTORY TO FALL BACK ON. AND THIS TIGHTER CORN INVENTORY PROGRAM THAT THEY’RE PURSUING NOW GETS BALLOTS BY WHAT’S GOING ON IN THE WORLD SWITCHING GEARS TO LIVESTOCK CATTLE SAW A DECENT END TO THE WEEK. NOT A GOOD DAY AT MIDWAY BUT IT EASES INTO THE WEEK WHAT’S MOVING CATTLE PRICES RIGHT NOWWELL AT SOME POINT AN EVEN BIG BEAR MARKETS CAN GO MUCH LOWER AND SO A INCREDIBLE HIGH AMOUNT OF BUYING TRADE IN CATTLE BETWEEN ONE HUNDRED AND KNOW HOW LOW THEY WENT ABOUT NINETY SIX NINETY SEVEN I STOPPED LOOKING AT SOME POINT BECAUSE IT’S DEPRESSING AND WHEN YOU WORK WITH PEOPLE GROW COMMODITIES ERASE COMMODITIES LIKE CATTLE IT’S IT’S IT’S HARD TO TALK ABOUT PRICES LIKE THAT WE ARE LITERALLY HALF THE PRICE WE WERE A YEAR AGO, IN FEEDERS. SO, IT’S A CHALLENGING ENVIRONMENT THAT THE CATTLE INDUSTRY IS RESETTING A LOT OF THE WEALTH THAT WAS MADE IN CATTLE INDUSTRY HAS BEEN LOST AND SOME GUYS HAVE EVEN LOST MORE IN THAT IS VERY EXPENSE OF THE PAYOUT FOR FEEDERS AND THAT BULL MARKET TRY TO SELL THEM AS FATS AND THEN IN A IN A MARKET THAT’S DECLINING AND SELL IT HOW AND WHEN THE PORK PRODUCERS ARE FACING A SIMILAR SITUATION I THINK STERLING PROFIT TRACKER SHOWING FORTY FIVE DOLLARS PER HEAD LOSSES LAST WEEK HOW YOU MANAGE THAT RIGHT NOW WELL HOPEFULLY YOU’VE HAD SOME HEDGES IN PLACE COMING INTO THIS WE’VE GONE TO 41 CENTS. IT SETS US UP FOR A NINETEEN EIGHTY EIGHT TYPE OF SCENARIO WE DON’T EVER WANT TO GO BACK THAT LOW BUT THE REALITY OF IT IS WE’RE UP AGAINST BIG INVENTORIES BEEF POULTRY, PORK THE FREEZERS OR FALL WE’RE COMING INTO THE FOURTH QUARTER WHEN TO GET FORWARD AND YOU KNOW END OF DAY WE JUST HAVE TO WORK THROUGH IT AFTER LOW PRICESNYOU KNOW WE SEE MARKETS REBOUND JUST LIKE WE ARE WATCHING IN CATTLE RIGHT NOW HOGS NARE SET UP RELATED TO THE SAME THING BUT WE GOTTA GET RID OF SOME SOWS JUST LIKE IN THE CATTLE SIDE WE’RE GETTING RID OF SOME COWS. AND WE’VE GOT A GLUT OF DAIRY TOOLOTS OF SUPPLY THEIR CHEESE BUTTER BIG BIG INVENTORIES WERE COMING INTO THAT TIME OF YEAR WHERE WE DEPEND ON THOSE TO BE DRAWN DOWN AND WE’LL SEE HOW THAT STACKS UP. THE DOLLAR CONTINUES TO GET STRONGER SO EXPORT ALL IT’S BECOME LESS OF AN OPTION IN THIS IS GOING TO BE A CHALLENGE LIVESTOCK ALL ACROSS THE BOARD IS BEING SQUEEZED RIGHT NOW DO YOU THINK WE CONTINUE TO SEE MILK PRICES MOVELOWER? INTO THE FOR A FOURTH QUARTER OF THIS YEAR IN FIRST QUARTER FIRST HALF OF NEXT YEAR YES I’M STILL HOPEFUL OF A REBOUND IN THE SECOND HALF BUT MY OPTIMISM IS DECLINING BY THE MARCHALL RIGHT WELL WE’RE GONNA GET A CLOSING THOUGHT WHEN WE COME BACK ON U S FARM REPORT THAT’LL GO ANYWHERE
MARKETS NOW
WELCOME BACK TO U S FARMER REPORT TIME NOW TO GET SOME CLOSING THOUGHTS MIKE NORTH LET’S START WITH YOU IT’S A BUSY TIME OF YEAR EVERYBODY’S ROLING IN THE FIELD IN CROP WHEREVER THEY CAN AND THAT THE MARKETS HAVE BEEN RALLYING. THE KEY TO THIS RALLY I THINK IS TO HAVE A VISION BEYOND WHAT’S COMING OUT OF THE FIELD AND AS WE LOOK AT 2017 THERE’S SOME GREAT OPPORTUNITIES OUT THERE TO GET VERY NEAR THE FOUR DOLLAR CORN ON FUTURES, TEN DOLLAR BEANS AND THOSE ARE OPPORTUNITIES HAD WE ASKED ANYBODY COME INTO THE HARVEST IF THEY COULD SELL THEIR GRAIN COMING OUT O FTHE FIELD AT THOSE PRICES, THEY WOULD HAVE JUMPED AT IT. WELL, WE HAVE THEM OUT THERE FOR NEXT YEAR AND WE NEED A STAR JUMPING AT IT. THERE’S AN OPPORTUNITY IN FRONT OF US, WE NEED TO BE MAKING SOME SALES, GET SOME PUTS BOUGHT, LET’S START STRATEGIZING FOR THE YEAR AHEAD ALL RIGHT TOMMY. TO MIKE’S POINT, I’LL JUST ADD ONTO THAT, I TALKED TO MY FRIEND JASON WINNER AND HE RAN SOME CHARTS ON VOLATILITY AND A BACK MONTH VOLATILITY OPTION IN DECEMBER SEVENTEEN CORN AND NOVEMBER SEVENTEEN BEANS ISAT HISTORICAL LOWS, AND SO THE OPPORTUNITY TO PUT A FLOOR IN THE MARKET, WE’RE NOT SAYING THE MARKET’S GOING UP THE MARKET’S GOING DOWN, BUT YOU CAN’T CALL YOUR CROP INSURANCE GUY RIGHT NOW FOR TWENTY SEVENTEEN AND PUT IN A FLOOR OR GET YOUR PRICE PROTECTION, BUT THE MARKET IS ALLOWING YOU TO DO THAT. BE RESPECTFUL OF THE MARKET. WE WERE BLESSED WITH THIS HUGE CROP AND I THINK WITH ALL THE BUSHELS COMING IN AND YOU MIGHT REALIZE SAID THAT THERE’S MORE BUSHELS OUT THERE THAN WE EVEN IMAGINED. ALL RIGHT THANK YOU BOTH STAY WITH US JOHN PHIPPS JOINS US NEXT
JOHN’S WORLD
IT’S TIME NOW FOR A HEATED TOPIC IN THIS WEEK’D JOHN’S WORLD. FOR THAT, LET’S HEAD TO HIS FARM. JOHN. FOR THE LAST SEVERAL YEARS, BIG GOVERNMENT FOES HAVE HAD NOTHING GOOD TO SAY ABOUT JUST ABOUT ANY GOVERNMENT AGENCY. ANGRY CRIES TO SHUT DOWN ENTIRE DEPARTMENTS, FOR EXAMPLE, ARE A STAPLE OF POLITICAL STUMP SPEECHES. THE JUSTIFICATION IS EVEN MILDLY REASONABLE. GOVERNMENTS, LIKE ANY HUMAN ACTIVITY, MAKE MISTAKES. LAWS ARE POORLY WRITTEN, ADMINISTRATION AND CLERICAL ERRORS ARE INEVITABLE, AND CITIZENS DON’T GET THE RESULTS THEY EXPECT. FROM THESE EXPERIENCES WE HAVE MADE A LEAP OF ILLOGIC AND SEEM TO HAVE DECIDED EVERYTHING ABOUT GOVERNMENT IS BAD - BUT ESPECIALLY GOVERNMENT NUMBERS. FROM UNEMPLOYMENT FIGURES TO INFLATION, WE NOW HAVE ALMOST HALF OF AMERICANS DISTRUSTING GOVERNMENT EFFORTS TO MEASURE WHAT IS HAPPENING IN OUR ECONOMY OR POPULATION. IT IS EVEN ROUTINE IN AGRICULTURE. FARMERS PEPPER THEIR CONVERSATIONS WITH BLITHE ACCUSATIONS OF NEFARIOUS TWEAKING OF GRAIN SUPPLIES OR HOG NUMBERS. WHILE THIS HAS ALWAYS BEEN THE CASE, IT COULD BE MORE HARMFUL THAN WE THINK NOW. LOSS OF TRUST IN GOVERNMENT IS NO DIFFERENT THAN IN BUSINESS OR PERSONAL AFFAIRS. ONCE EVERY TRANSACTION SEEMS LIABLE FOR CHEATING OR LIES, AN EXHAUSTING AMOUNT OF EFFORT MUST BE MADE TO GUARANTEE AGAINST IT. OR A CONSIDERABLE SUM MUST BE SPENT TO FRICTION. THE PROBLEM IS RIGHT NOW, LOOKING AT FARM BUDGETS, WE DON’T HAVE A MUCH EXTRA MONEY TO WASTE ON DISTRUST. BESIDES, I’VE ALWAYS THOUGHT PEOPLE WHO FELT LIKE THE WORLD WAS RIGGED NOT ONLY REVEALED SOMETHING ABOUT THEIR CHARACTER, BUT ALSO WERE ACTUALLY SOMEWHAT VAIN. THE IDEA GOVERNMENT WORKERS STAY UP AT NIGHT INVENTING NUMBERS TO TRICK ME CERTAINLY SEEMS A LITTLE SELF-CENTERED. MY EXPERIENCE IS, HOWEVER, THE WORLD DOESN’T HAVE TO CHEAT TO TAKE ADVANTAGE OF ME. MOST OF THE PEOPLE I DEAL WITH CAN DO IT SIMPLY BY BEING BETTER AT THEIR JOB THAN I AM AT MINE.
TEASE
THANKS, JOHN. STILL TO COME, LAND PRICES HAVE SEEN A 25 PERCENT DECLINE FROM THE HIGHS A FEW YEARS AGO. BUT HAVE WE FINALLY FOUND A FLOOR? THAT’S OUR FARM JOURNAL REPORT AFTER THE BREAK. US FARM REPORT IS BROUGHT TO YOU BY THE BV ROUNDBALER FROM KUBOTA. FOR EARTH, FOR LIFE
HEADLINES
WELCOME BACK TO U-S FARM REPORT. WE HAVE MUCH MORE AHEAD. IT’S A LAND SLIDE, BUT HAVE LAND PRICES BOTTOMED OUT? LUKE BRYAN TEAMS UP WITH BAYER TO GIVE BACK. AND YOU CAN CHIP IN WITH A TWEET. AND IN CUSTOMER SUPPORT, WHAT IF WE ELIMINATED CRP?
LIVESTOCK NEWS
NOW FOR THE HEADLINES, A CONTROVERSIAL RULE THAT’S BEEN DORMANT FOR 6 YEARS IS GETTING NEW LIFE. USDA SAYS IT’S SENDING FINAL RULE CHANGES TO THE GRAIN INSPECTION, PACKERS AND STOCKYARDS ACT, OR GIPSA, TO THE WHITEHOUSE. AND IT’S SPARKING STRONG OPPOSITION FROM MAJOR LIVESTOCK GROUPS. THE EXACT LANGUAGE OF THE FINAL RULE IS UNKOWN, EXPECTED TO BE RELEASED IN THE NEXT FEW WEEKS. GIPSA WAS PART OF THE 2008 FARM BILL, DESIGNED TO IMPLEMENT PROVISIONS FOR BUYING AND SELLING LIVESTOCK AND POULTRY. BUT LIVESTOCK GROUPS ARGUE THE 2010 PROPOSAL WENT WELL BEYOND FARM BILL MANDATES, COSTING THE LIVESTOCK INDUSTRY MONEY. THE U-S PORK INUDSTRY PUTTING AN ANNUAL 330 MILLION PRICETAG ON THE RULE. NOT ALLOWING PACKERS TO TRADE WITH EACHOTHER ON GIVEN DAYS WITH GIVEN DAYS OF TIME WOULD NOT BE ALLOWED. THE WAY WE CONTRACT HOGS TO A PACKE, WE HAD SOME RAMIFICIATIONS THERE SO ON AND SO FOURTH. >
RURAL MAINSTREET INDEX
BUT USDA ARGUES THE CHANGES ADDRESS SOME OF THESE CONCERNS. REGULATORY COSTS ARE ALSO EATING INTO FARMERS’ OUTLOOKS. THE LATEST RURAL MAINSTREET INDEX SHOWING THE LOWEST READING SINCE APRIL OF 2009 AT 31 POINT 8. THAT’S BASED ON A SCALE OF 1 TO 100. MORE THAN ONE IN FOUR BANK CEO’S THINK RISING REGULATORY COSTS WILL BE THE BIGGEST CHALLENGE. CREIGHTON UNIVERSITY ALSO FINDING IN THEIR SURVEY THAT ONE IN FIVE GRAIN FARMERS EXPECT NEGATIVE CASH FLOWS. REGULATION ALSO THE CENTER OF DEBATE IN WASHINGTON THIS WEEK. AS THE TWO LEADING PRESIDENTAL CANDIDATES PREPARED TO SQUARE OFF FOR THEIR FINAL DEBATE, EACH OF THEIR CAMPS DISCUSSED AG AT THE FARM FOUNDATION FORUM IN WASHINGTON D.C.
GEORGIA PECAN INDUSTRY AND HURRICANE MATTHEW
GEORGIA’S FAMED PECAN INDUSTRY TOOK A MAJOR HIT FROM HURRICANE MATTHEW. TAKE A LOOK AT SOME OF THE DEVESTATION. GEORGIA’S AG COMMISSIONER AND STATE FARM BUREAU PRESIDENT TOURED FARM OPERATIONS IN THREE EASTERN COUNTIES. AG COMMISSIONER GARY BLACK SAYS PECANS WERE ONE OF THE HARDEST HIT COMMODITIES IN THE REGION WITH MANY FARMERS LOSING UP A THIRD OF THEIR OPERATION. THE DEPARTMENT OF AG SAYS MANY OF THE TREES ARE OVER 100 YEARS OLD. SINCE IT TAKES AT LEAST SEVEN YEARS FOR A NEW TREE TO START PRODUCING AGAIN, THE DAMAGE WILL HAVE A LONG-TERM EFFECT ON PECAN GROWERS.
WEATHER
THAT’S IT FOR NEWS...METEOROLOGIST MIKE HOFFMAN JOINS US NOW WITH THE LONG RANGE LOOK AT WEATHER. MIKE, NOAA PUTTING LA NINA BACK IN ITS OUTLOOK. DO YOU AGREE? THANKS, MIKE.
CASH RENTS IN 2017
OUR PARTNERS AT LANDOWNER NEWSLETTER SAY THE DECLINE IN LAND VALUES IN THE EASTERN CORN BELT IS TRAILING THE WESTERN CORNBELT BY ABOUT A YEAR. WHILE THEIR EXPECATIONS ARE WESTERN BELT LAND PRICES TO NOT BOTTOM UNTIL LATE 2017 INTO 2018, THE MARKET IS FINDING STABILZATION. IN THIS FARM JOURNAL REPORT, WE SEE HOW BOTH THE LAND AND CASH RENT DISCUSSION IS GOING TO BE A TOUGH ONE IN 2017. FARMING THIS FERTILE INDIANA GROUND IS BOTH JASON WYKOFF’S PASSION AND LIVELIHOOD. BUT AFTER 22 YEARS, HE WAS FORCED TO MAKE ONE OF THE MOST DIFFICULT DECISIONS OF HIS CAREER.
TEASE
UP NEXT, JOHN PHIPPS.
CUSTOMER SUPPORT
THERE’S A LOT OF FOCUS ON C-R-P ACREAGE FOR NEXT YEAR, AND CRP IS THE TOPIC OF THIS WEEK’S CUSTOMER SUPPORT. TERRY SIZEMORE SHARES HIS THOUGHTS ON THE CONSERVATION RESERVE PROGRAM - CRP: “WHY SHOULD THE GOVERNMENT PAY LAND OWNERS ANY MONEY, ESPECIALLY A LEVEL HIGH ENOUGH TO BE A VIABLE FINANCIAL OPTION TO FARMING THE LAND? IF THEIR FARMS ARE SO UNPRODUCTIVE THAT THEY CAN’T BE PROFITABLE IN TODAY’S MARKETS THEY ARE LIKELY INCOMPETENT FARM MANAGERS AND SHOULD EXIT THE BUSINESS AND SELL THEIR LAND. I FARM LAND THAT IS HIGHLY ERODIBLE AND IS CONSIDERED TO BE LOW PRODUCTIVITY, ALTHOUGH MY YIELDS HAVE BEEN MUCH HIGHER THAN THE USDA LISTED COUNTY AVERAGE. MY LAND IS CONSIDERED TO BE SO BAD, IT DOES NOT QUALIFY FOR CRP, HOWEVER, IT HAS BEEN PROFITABLE IN TODAY’S GRAIN PRICES. IF WE WERE TO ELIMINATE THE CRP PROGRAM WE WOULD ENABLE LAND TO CHANGE HANDS AND GO TO MORE CAPABLE MANAGERS AND MORE PROFITABLE OPERATIONS.” TERRY, THANKS FOR WRITING AND FOR PRESENTING A POSITION HEARD OFTEN FROM YOUNG FARMERS AT DURING CRP DISCUSSION. THE CRP WILL BE MORE IN THE AG MEDIA IF HUGE CROPS PRODUCE BURDENSOME SURPLUSES AS EXPECTED. BUT I THINK YOU OVERLOOK ITS MAIN PURPOSES. THE FIRST IS TO PULL FRAGILE CROPLAND OUT OF PRODUCTION TO REDUCE SOIL AND NUTRIENT LOSS. ANOTHER BENEFIT IS TO RESTORE NON- CROPLAND FOR ECOLOGICAL PURPOSES. I WILL PLANT MY FIRST CRP ACRES THIS FALL AS PART OF THE POLLINATOR PROGRAM, FOR EXAMPLE. THE CRP IS NOT DESIGNED TO BE A SAFETY NET FOR INEPT FARMERS, BUT ITS STRUCTURE MAY BE SERVING AS AN ATTRACTIVE OPTION FOR FARMERS NEAR THE END OF THEIR CAREER TO GUARD AGAINST FALLING CASH RENTS. WITH OUR INCREDIBLY COMPETITIVE LAND MARKET, I CAN SEE HOW YOUNG FARMERS MIGHT SEE THIS DIFFERENTLY. BUT I AM CONCERNED WE ARE TALKING ABOUT LAND THAT SHOULD NOT IN MY OPINION BE IN PRODUCTION IN THE FIRST PLACE, AND MORE IMPORTANTLY, A SIGNIFICANT REGULATORY INVASION OF LANDOWNER RIGHTS. THE CRP IS NOT PERFECT, AND THERE WILL BE CASES OF BIDS TOO HIGH AND LOW BEING ACCEPTED, BUT IT REPRESENTS ONE OF THE FEW FUNCTIONING EFFORTS TO DEAL WITH A MAJOR PROBLEM - SOIL STEWARDSHIP FAILURE IN TOO MANY AREAS. THANKS, JOHN. SEND YOUR QUESTIONS OR COMMENTS TO JOHN BY EMAIL OR FACEBOOK OR TWITTER.
TEASE
UP NEXT, A POPULAR COUNTRY MUSIC STAR IS GIVING BACK TO LOCAL COMMUNITIES, WITH THE HELP OF BAYER. WE HAVE THE STORY NEXT.
#THANKFUL4AG
LUKE BRYAN IS KNOWN AS A COUNTRY MUSIC SUPERSTAR, TOPPING THE CHARTS AND SELLING MILLIONS OF ALBUMS WORLDWIDE. OVER THE LAST COUPLE OF WEEKS, HE TOOK A BREAK FROM HIS ‘KILL THE LIGHTS TOUR’ AND DEDICATED TIME TO A SPECIAL TOUR PARTNERSHIP WITH BAYER. HE’S FOCUSED ON HUNGER AND OUR NATION’S FARMERS ON A 2016 FARM TOUR. BETSY JIBBEN WAS AT ONE OF THE STOPS FOR AN EXCLUSIVE FARM INTERVIEW. IT’S THE HEAT OF HARVEST FOR FARMERS AROUND THE COUNTRY... “HARVEST IS GOING WELL. SOYBEANS ARE COMPLETED. NOW, WORKING ON CORN,” BUT SET BACK BETWEEN HIS INDIANA FIELDS AND BACKROADS... IS AN UNUSUAL SIGHT FOR THIS MONROEVILLE FARM. “WE’VE BEEN HERE SINCE 2 O’CLOCK TODAY,"THOUSANDS OF CARS HEADING TO THE COUNTRY FANS FILLING IN THE ROWS FOR COUNTRY MUSIC SINGER, LUKE BRYAN. “I’M A FARMER’S DAUGHTER. I GREW UP EVERY YEAR WATCHING MY DAD WONDER IF IT’S GOING TO BE A GOOD YEAR OR BAD AND OUR LIFE DEPENDED ON THAT. THAT’S AWESOME LUKE GIVES BACK TO THE COMMUNITIES,” AS THESE FANS KNOW, THIS TOUR IS DIFFERENT. BAYER AND LUKE BRYAN ARE TEAMING UP TO CELEBRATE THE AMERICAN FARMER. “WHAT MAKES IT TRULY UNIQUE IS TWO DAYS AGO WE WERE IN A HAYFIELD OR SOME SORT OF FIELD. AND NOW WE HAVE 30 TOUR BUSES AND TRACTOR TRAILERS AND STUFF. IT’S ALMOST LIKE WE’RE A CIRCUS.” “WE’RE ALL ABOUT THE AMERICAN FARMERS, THE HARDEST WORKING PEOPLE IN AMERICA AND WE WANT TO COME OUT AND CELEBRATE THEM TOGETHER,” THE FARM TOUR HAS TWO GOALS IN MIND: THANKING FARMERS DURING HARVEST, AND PROVIDING MEALS FOR THOSE IN NEED. BAYER IS DONATING ONE MEAL TO FEEDING AMERICA EVERY TIME THE HASH-TAG #THANKFUL4AG IS USED ON SOCIAL MEDIA PLATFORMS: SUCH AS FACEBOOK,, TWITTER, TUMBLR AND INSTAGRAM NOW UNTIL NOVEMBER 30. “UNFORTUNATELY, IN AMERICA WE HAVE A PROBLEM. WHICH IS HUNGER. THERE ARE KIDS, FAIMLIES WHO DON’T KNOW WHERE THEIR NEXT MEAL IS COMING FROM,” “OUR GOAL THIS YEAR IS 500-THOUSAND MEALS. LAST YEAR WAS 300- THOUSAND. WE NAILED IT WITH LUKES HELP. NOW WE’RE GOING FOR 500,” IT’S NOT JUST A CAMPAIGN FOR LUKE BRYAN, BUT PART OF HIS HISTORY. AGRICULTURE RUNS DEEP IN HIS FAMILY - HIS DAD IS A PEANUT GROWER DOWN IN GEORGIA. " I WOULD SPEND MY AFTERNOONS WORKING AT THE PEANUT MILL. I’D HAVE TO GO OUT TO THE FIELDS. PULL THE PEANUTS ON TRAILERS AND GET MOISTURE ON THEM AND GET THEM DRIED AND GET THEM READY TO GO TO THE SHELLING PLANTS.” KNOWING IF HE WASN’T SINGING ON STAGE- FARMING WOULD LIKELY BE HIS FUTURE. “AT ANY MOMENT IN MY LIFE, I COULD HAVE TOOK A DIFFERENT PATH OR DIFFERENT DIRECTION AND STILL CERTAINLY COULD HAVE BEEN WORKING IN AG,” INSTEAD, HE’S HERE, GIVING THANKS DURING HARVEST.. HELPING FEED THOSE IN NEED..DURING A FEW NIGHTS OF FUN. “ANYTIME WE CAN BRING AWARENESS TO FARMERS AND UPLIFT AND LET THEM KNOW THAT PEOPLE ARE THINKING ABOUT THEM AND CERTAINLY GUYS LIKE YSELF ARE TRYING TO DO WHAT I CAN TO PROP FARMERS UP AND SPREAD HTE WORD OUT THERE, IT FEELS LIKE SOMETHING I WAS DESTINED TO DO AND I ENJOY DOING IT,” REPORTING IN MONROEVILLE, INDIANA, I’M BETSY JIBBEN. SO DON’T FORGET TO USE THE HASTAG THANKFUL 4 AG TO HELP FEED SOMEONE IN NEED.
TEASE
WHEN WE COME BACK, MACHINERY PETE HAS THIS WEEK’S CLASSIC TRACTOR.
TRACTOR TALES
TIME NOW FOR TRACTOR TALES WITH MACHINE PETE THE MOST TRUSTED NAME IN FARM EQUIPMENT WELCOME BACK TO TRACTOR TALES FOLKS WITH NINETEEN FORTY ONE ALICE CHILL MERCY TO SHARE WITH YOU TODAY AND WERE HEADING OFF TO SOUTHEAST OHIO WHILE THIS CLASSIC IRON MAYBE RETIRE FROM FIELDWORK OR PAT AND AS THAT ENJOYED RESTORING IT TO ITS ORIGINAL LUSTERIDENTICAL TO ONE HIS GRANDFATHER ON THIS SEE BROUGHT BACK SOME GREAT MEMORIES OF NINETEEN FORTIES ON OUT TO SEA OR FALL OR BE ACQUIRED IT FROM A FOUL ON MIKE COLLINS THERE HIS DAD THEIR GUARD UP ON ALICE THOMAS C AND THE LOLLAR CUSTOM WORK FOR PEOPLE WHEN HE BOUGHT HE HASN’T WON THE FIRST ONES IN THE AREA AND THAT GREW UP ON A SAY IN THE ONE ONE IN OUR WEAPONRY BODY AGREED ON A SHOT AROUND DIFFERENT SHOWS THROUGHOUT OHIO AND SOME IN WEST VIRGINIA ALL ALIKE AND THEY SAY IT’S A PRETTY SHARP TRACTOR A LOT OF PEOPLE GOT UP ON OUR CAMERAS SO THAT WAS A VERY PROPER TRACK BACKGROUND THAT HE HAS A DRIVER FOR QUITE SOME TIME BUT HE’S A TAKEOUT ON DRIVES WHENEVER A FIRST DOWN NOT OUT ON A TRACTOR RIDE A COUPLE YEARS AGO WE HAVE TRACKED A RIDE EACH YEAR ON A CONTRACT TO RIDE REAL ENJOYABLE SO UNORIGINAL SAY THAT AND A SCIRI NINE IN BUTMIR AND TIRES ON IT IN A NEW HERD IN BAABDA SANAN AND PREPARATION CLAIMING YOU KNOW MY GRANDFATHER GREW UP ON A OUR JOB OURS AND THAT WAS A BIG FACTOR BACK THEN THE MAINE AND YOU KNOW HE DID A LOT OF CUSTOM WORK FOR THE NEIGHBORS THAT IT BACK WHEN THE FATE NOW IN FACT THE COMPANY IS THE BIG IMPRINT FOR AGRICULTURE BACK THEIRTHANKS SO MUCH FOR THAT
COUNTRY CHURCH SALUTE
TODAY’S COUNTRY CHURCH SALUTE GOES TO THE OLD DUTCH CHURCH IN SLEEPY HOLLOW, NEW YORK. THIS HISTORIC CHURCH IS A 17TH CENTRULY STONE CHURCH SITTING HAPPILY ON 5 ACRES IN NEW YORK STATE. THE CHRUCH WAS ACTUALLY FEATURED IN WASHINGTON IRVING’S THE LEGED OF SLEEPY HOLLOW. THANKS FOR SENDING THAT IN. AS ALWAYS WE WANT TO LEARN ABOUT YOUR HOME CHURCH AS WELL... SALUTES CAN BE SENT TO THE ADDRESS ON THE SCREEN. STAY WITH US - CROPWACH IS NEXT.
FROM THE FARM
OUR FRIENDS IN TEXAS STARTED HARVESTING COTTON. CHECK OUT THIS SIDE BY SIDE JEREMY LOUDER SENT US FRMO THE STANTON AREA. HE SAYS THIS IS THE DIFFERENCE 5 MONTHS CAN MAKE. JEREMY SENT US THE FLOODED PHOTO BACK IN MAY HAVE SOME TORRENTIAL RAINS. BUT NOW IT’S A BLANKET OF WHITE WITH HARVEST IN FULL SWING. USDA SAYS 22 PERCENT OF THE STATE’S COTOTN CROP IS HARVESTED, 2 POINTS BEHIND AVERAGE. AND IN NEW YORK, VEIWER TIM MURPHY HAS SOYBEAN HARVEST IS GOING WELL. HE’S LOCATED ABOUT 90 MILES NORTH OF MANHATTAN. THEY SUFFERED FROM A SEVERE DROUGHT THIS YEAR. DRY WEATHER GRIPPED MUCH OF THE NORTHEAST ALL SUMMER. THE CAB CORN CRAZE CONTINUES. MARK SAYS WHAT DO YOU DO WITH THE EXCES CAB CORN? COWBOY LOGIC SAYS TURN THE COWS IN. IT LOOKS LIKE HE’S RELIVING MOST OF OUR CHILDHOOD DOING SOME CARPET FARMING. BUT ON TOP OF THE PLANTER. AND TO END ON A FUN NOTE. CAN YOU BELIEVE IT’S BEEN 50 YEARS SINCE “IT’S THE GREAT PUMPKIN, CHARLIE BROWN” MADE IT’S DEBUT? NOW THE HALLOWEEN SPECIAL IS GETTING SOME LOVE AT CORN MAZES ACROSS THE COUNTRY. TO HONOR THIS MILESTONE, FARMERS ACROSS THE COUNTRY HAVE FEATURED “PEANUTS” THEMED CORN MAZES THIS SEASON. A COMPANY CALLED “THE MAIZE INC” SPECIALIZES IN CORN MAZE DESIGNS. IT WILL MAP-OUT AND CUT THE CORN. THEY SAY THEY DID 90 FARMS THIS SEASON. ALL TO HONOR - A CLASSIC CARTOON. AS ALWAYS, WE WANT TO HEAR FROM YOU, SEND COMMENTS TO MAILBAG-AT-U-S-FARM-REPORT-DOT- COM OR CHECK US OUT ON FACEBOOK AND TWITTER.
CLOSE
FOR JOHNA ND MIKE, I’M TYNE MORGAN. THANK YOU FOR WATCHING U-S FARM REPORT. BE SURE TO JOIN US RIGHT HERE AGAIN NEXT WEEK, AS WE WORK TO BUILD ON OUR TRADITION. HAVE A GREAT WEEKEND, EVERYONE.
