There are whispers that corn prices might be on the move, and if history is any guide, the ag equipment market won’t be far behind. Machinery Pete sees early signs of a familiar cycle taking shape — one that could put pressure on both equipment availability and prices before many farmers are ready.
“Auction prices will be the highest you’ve ever seen, which in my 36, almost 37, years, the last high point happened at the end of 2022,” says Machinery Pete. “If you’re late, you won’t get that new piece of equipment. It just won’t be there.”
Used Equipment Prices Are Climbing
Early indicators are emerging. Used combine prices have been strengthening since mid-June. A 2018 John Deere S770 with 1,818 hours recently sold for $194,000 — well above average for the model. Meanwhile, a 2024 John Deere X9-1100 with just 457 hours brought $562,717 at auction versus the average dealer asking price of $638,201 for 2024 models.
For farmers considering equipment purchases, Machinery Pete’s advice is clear: Be proactive now, or risk being priced out later.
Farmers Are Adapting — For Now
Beyond the immediate price pressure, the industry might be entering what some are calling a “great reset.” Rising costs are fundamentally redefining the equipment space, pushing farmers toward longer trade cycles and extended machine life. Repair budgets are becoming more structured as operators squeeze additional years from their fleets.
Yet if commodity prices do surge, Machinery Pete predicts an old pattern will reassert itself: farmers racing to minimize tax liability through Section 179 equipment purchases.
“Now all of a sudden you have money in your pocket, and for the last quarter century the way to minimize that income into the year is through iron purchases,” Machinery Pete explains.
700+ HP Tractors Might Reshape the Market
Adding another layer of complexity to the machinery landscape, the proliferation of 700+ horsepower tractors might be disrupting traditional market segments. Casey Seymour, host of the Moving Iron Podcast, believes these ultra-high-horsepower machines could create a “dome effect” over the 600 hp to 640 hp category, suppressing demand for mid-range models while leaving a gap down to the 400 hp to 500 hp segment.
“It then kind of creates this kind of a dome over a pretty big chunk of inventory that’s out there right now,” Seymour explains. “I’m leaning toward the higher horsepower machine being the more sought after machine.”
The shift makes sense given today’s labor challenges. With farm help increasingly difficult to find and retain, larger tractors that allow operators to cover more ground faster become more attractive.
“The need for the bigger machine to let me do more work faster has kind of always been proved out,” Machinery Pete explains.
As manufacturers continue releasing 700+ hp models, Seymour recommends watching closely how farmers and the machinery market adapt to this new horsepower hierarchy.
Listen to the latest “Moving Iron” podcast for more from Machinery Pete and Seymour as they continue to follow the ever-evolving tractor market.
