New two-wheel and four-wheel drive tractor sales appear to be in a free fall to start 2025, and combines are tumbling down with them. That’s based on data pulled from the latest Association of Equipment Manufacturers (AEM) U.S. Ag Tractors and Combine Report.
With spring planting just a handful of weeks away for some, the ag equipment industry is well aware of the forecasts predicting another down year demand-wise.
“I would say our guide on the larger ag machines is in that minus 20 to minus 30 range for the full year, but I haven’t gone through all the details (of the AEM report) yet,” says Kurt Coffey, head of North America, Case IH.
Coffey does think it’s a bit premature to sound the alarm bells based on a contracted January, though.
“We need to see the quarter play out in total, because there are companies that had new product launches that were getting the new line rates adjusted and maybe didn’t ship in January, but they may ship in February,” he adds.
Still, the AEM numbers to kick off 2025 don’t paint the rosiest of pictures. Case IH specifically is coming off a busy 2024 that featured two new massive row crop combine launches and the late-summer introduction of its new mobile fleet management app, FieldOps. For this year, the company debuted a new Farmall C utility tractor in the 100 hp range that Coffey says represents “kind of the core of the every man’s tractor” and is something he is “very excited about that.”
“There are certain areas where we’re very clean and there are certain areas where we would like to reduce a half a month to a month of stock, if that makes sense,” Coffey says. “We’re sitting where we want to be on more of the large categories, but I would like to maybe get a little cleaner on some of the livestock or mixed farm categories, but these are statistically small to our total performance, so it’s nothing really that we’re concerned about here in North America.”
Coffey says he isn’t super worried because his team is focused on what matters: staying steady and “destocking at the dealer level.” He says that effort has helped with overall dealer financial health and has calmed some of the concerns equipment dealers had coming into the year.
“We’ve been closely watching lead measures and used values, and not only values in dollars, but also in quantities,” he says. “And we heavily invested in velocity last Q3 and Q4 to help get some of the used stuff through the system, and now we’re starting to see some of the fruits of that labor.
“I don’t want to speak for our dealers, but we’re hearing feedback that we’re being more proactive and a stronger partner in that area than our dealers have had in a long time. That feedback came from our dealer advisory board. And that’s a good indicator of when the market stabilizes, how healthy are we to then attack a market on an upside?”
Of course, sluggish machine sales aren’t the only hurdle to leap over. The ongoing threat of tariffs – many of which could be levied against some of America’s strongest ag trade partners – has demanded a high level of attention over the last few weeks.
“I’m a farm kid from a town of 800 people, Ashmore, Illinois, and at like eight years old my dad told me ‘Kurt, I can’t sit here and worry about if it’s gonna rain or not,’ and we were in a massive drought. It was the 80s and it just really imprinted on me like, I can’t control this, so what can I do about it,” Coffey says. “And so we stay disciplined and balanced (in our approach). We’re having daily reviews with the Executive team because look, last week it was China, Mexico, and Canada. And then the next day, Canada and Mexico were paused for 30 days. And last week, we had a solid go forward plan. And then over the weekend there’s steel and aluminum (tariffs), so the plan changes. We’re staying calm, focusing on customer value and in a disciplined way, we’re doing what we can to deliver that.”
With new equipment sales slow and the threat of a global trade war looming, one area Coffey is seeing interest from farmers is in Case IH’s tech stack and its digital platform, FieldOps.
“We’re really going deep on our technology and unlocking value with our FieldOps platform,” Coffey told Farm Journal last week at the National Farm Machinery Show. “Where’s the machine? How’s it operating? What are my yields? I need to send that to my agronomist.” Honestly, I’ve been here all day today and that’s probably half the conversation. People literally coming up saying, ‘Hey, how do I integrate my data from my combine to my planter?’
AGCO-PTx Trimble weigh in
AgRevolution CEO Stacy Anthony met with Farm Journal at the AGCO booth, where the Duluth, Georgia-based manufacturer debuted an updated line of Massey Ferguson utility tractors as well as a new Hesston double square baler for hay and forage operations.
RELATED: AGCO Launches Massey Ferguson 2025 Compact Tractor Series, New Double Square Baler
Anthony told us farmers he met with at the show are still talking about last year’s AGCO-Precision Planting-Trimble tie up, which remains the largest ag tech acquisition deal in history. The companies re-branded its combined precision ag technology portfolio under the PTx Trimble name.
“We were always thought of as kind of chasing the leader for years to come, and now this PTx Trimble deal has given us a position to lead from the front, to lead with strength,” Anthony says. “Now we’re going to have a tech stack that’s unlike and unmatched from anybody else in the industry. That’s what we’re excited about and that’s what the farmer is excited about, because he’s got a choice now. He’s got a choice between the competition.”
PTx Trimble had its own separate booth in Louisville, where it was showing its new WM-Field Form land-forming and water management kit for the first time.
The WM-Field Form kit adds an RTK receiver to the blade implement on a tractor already equipped with auto steer to increase single-scraper landforming accuracy and improve connectivity at the edge of the field or in areas where the tractor and implement may not have full line of sight to the sky.
The company also featured its OutRun autonomous grain cart retrofit kit. That tractor and grain cart autonomy kit is available now from PTx Trimble dealers. Although it will start out automating only the tractor-grain cart functions, senior product manager Dinen Subramaniam says the same kit will be adapted to automate tillage tools and dry fertilizer spreaders in the near future.
“There are a lot of small operations that really struggle to find good help and there are large farms that can benefit from the increased efficiency,” he says. “They can now take someone, a highly skilled operator, and get them to do something that is worth their time, but no one else can do it, and then have an autonomous tractor out there taking care of the other tasks.”
Deere Dials Up More Retrofit Options
John Deere did not launch any new tractors or machines at the Louisville show this year, but the manufacturer did expand its Precision Upgrades retrofit program to include ExactEmerge and MaxEmerge 5e seed meter upgrades for 2015 and newer factory planters. The kits are available now at your local Deere dealer.
Both upgrade kits offer increased population accuracy - Deere claims a 20% increase in seeding accuracy compared to its MaxEmerge 5 meters - and the ExactEmerge kit enables accurate population and spacing while planting at speeds up to 10 mph, Deere says.
“Traditionally, customers have gotten a planter upgrade from us and essentially that upgrade came in a full row unit, but now we’re giving them the ability to upgrade without replacing the entire row unit,” says Kyle Barry, manager, Precision Upgrades.
Barry adds the newer your John Deere planter is, the easier it is going to be to install the electrically-driven seed metering kits on your own. Deere is also offering dealer installation if farmers would rather let the dealer techs handle it.
Barry says most farmers make the decision to upgrade an older planter once they get wind of the capabilities that new technology can offer, such as automatic row shutoffs and better seed singulation. Often, those increases can be the difference in getting your acreage planted in a tight window versus missing your window and feeling some yield drag on the back end of the growing season.
“With both of these seed meters we’re giving you the ability to have individual row shut offs on your planter,” he explains. “So as you go around corners or you plant into a headland and you have point rows, we’re going to shut each individual row off. You’re putting the seeds exactly where you want to, so you’re not over planting. That’s where you can get that 20% increase in population accuracy.”
After re-branding its aftermarket program to Precision Upgrades and launching the Precision Upgrades Essential kit at last year’s Louisville show, Deere is now offering many of its technologies as both OEM installed and aftermarket add-ons, most notably being its See & Spray smart spraying technology. Barry says this evolution at Deere is all about meeting farmers where they are on the technology journey and helping them be more productive and profitable.
“We’re increasing the options that customers have with upgrades in general, its not something we’re doing that is just specific to planters,” he says. “We’ve got sprayers, combines, air seeding, basically you name it. Depending on the customer, we’ve got options (for them). We’re really excited about these two new meter only upgrades because it’s giving customers that traditionally would have said no to an upgrade the ability to get this technology on their farm. Or, if its planter-applied fertilizer they want to get into, now we have ExactRate and ExactShot (kits).”
