How To Predict Tractor Prices Using Combine Data

Machinery Pete data shows the used combine market is one year ahead of the used high-horsepower tractor market in terms of values.

Machinery Pete.jpg
(Lori Hays)

The used combine market is a year ahead of the used high-horsepower tractor market in terms of adjusting used values. Back in December 2022, auction prices were still sizzling across the board on all types of used farm equipment thanks to strong farm income and historical used inventory shortages on dealer lots. It was a recipe for intense bidding wars at auction.

But one exception was beginning to emerge.

I recall vividly the Dec. 13, 2022 farm retirement auction in Spring Valley, Minn., where we filmed for our “Machinery Pete” TV show. It was a blustery winter day, but there was hot bidding on almost everything — everything except the combines.

The 2017 John Deere S680 with 2,103 engine hours that was in very good shape sold for $175,000 that day. Right around that time, our Machinery Pete data was beginning to show a big increase in the volume of late-model used combines for sale on dealer lots.

Dealers, who were remembering the last big downturn in used values that occurred between 2013 and 2015 was driven by the glut of large, late-model used equipment stuck sitting on used lots, quickly shot into action throughout 2023 by pushing more of their late-model, used combines out to auction.

To the tune of an 188% increase in the number of zero-to-5-year-old combines sold at auction in 2023 versus 2022.

In 2024, dealer focus shifted more toward dealing with the growing excess of late-model, high-horsepower used tractors. While we saw a sharp 114.2% increase in the number of zero-to-3-year-old 175+ HP tractors that were sold at auction last year, the corresponding jump in the number of zero-to-3-year-old used combines sold at auction last year was only 26.6%.

I’m Not Surprised
Because dealers started their push to pare down used combine inventory one year earlier in 2023, I can’t say I’ve been surprised to see stronger auction pricing early in 2025 on used combines.

Here are just a few recent examples:

  • March 3 online dealer auction in Mason City, Iowa: A 2023 John Deere X9 1100 with 506 engine hours sold for $614,000. That’s tied as the second-highest auction price ever on an X9 1100.
  • March 1 farm auction in West Liberty, Iowa: A 2019 Case IH 7250 with 1,362 engine hours sold for $220,000. This is the second-highest auction price ever on a 7250 with more than 1,200 engine hours.
  • Feb. 25 online farm auction in Monroe City, Ind.: A 2023 New Holland CR10.90 with 490 engine hours sold for $372,250 — a record auction price on a New Holland combine.
  • Feb. 1 farm auction in Seven Springs, N.C.: A John Deere 9670 STS with 2,253 engine hours sold for $122,000. This is the highest auction price ever on a 9670 STS with more than 2,200 engine hours.
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(Machinery Pete)

Snag A Deal On Tractors
Here’s a visual look at supply and demand. Spring 2023 is on the far left of the graph and spring 2025 is on the right. It’s been a wild ride the past couple of years — no doubt.

I suspect summer into early fall will once again be a better buying opportunity on used combines, like it was in 2024 as supply looks to be higher than demand. But as I led with, the used combine market is one full year ahead of the used, high-horsepower tractor market. This tells me 2025 might be your best value buying window for late-model, used high-horsepower tractors before values and auction pricing begin to firm up, just as used combine values have here early in 2025.

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