Election analyst Nate Silver described the 2024 presidential race as a “pure toss-up,” giving former President Donald Trump a slight advantage over Vice President Kamala Harris. Silver’s latest forecast indicates Trump has a 51.5% chance of winning the Electoral College, compared to Harris’ 48.1%, as reported on Substack. He noted that while New York Times swing state polls favor Harris and Morning Consult polls lean toward Trump, neither has a decisive lead.
David Wasserman on presidential contest. “As you know, a week ago I considered Trump a 60%-40% favorite. But Trump has had a terrible past week between “floating garbage,” “taking care of women whether they like it or not,” water fluoridation, etc. Might still give him a tiny edge but outlook has tightened considerably the more off-message he’s been.”
Trump said yesterday that if elected, he would consider taking action against vaccines and fluoride in the country’s water supply, two public health issues championed by Robert F. Kennedy Jr.
Wasserman is election analyst for the Cook Political Report with Amy Walter.
Of note:
The race tightened over the weekend as the Des Moines Register’s final presidential poll shockingly had Harris up three points in the state, underscoring that the election will be closer than current market expectations. The Iowa/Selzer poll has roiled the political betting markets. Following its publication, Trump’s odds of victory fell on platforms including Polymarket, after they had climbed in recent weeks, in tandem with crypto and other elements of the Trump trade. Trump’s odds on Polymarket were at nearly 58% this morning, down from 67% on Wednesday. (Polls measure how voters intend to cast their ballots, while prediction markets track the odds of a candidate’s victory implied by bets on a platform.)
— Tom Essaye from the Sevens Report notes some key points about the 2024 presidential election:
• The 2024 presidential race is shaping up to be extremely tight, despite markets having priced in a Trump victory. While stocks have rallied and Treasury yields have risen on expectations of a Republican win, the reality, he says, is that either candidate could still emerge victorious.
• As Essaye notes, “The Real Clear Politics national average has Trump ahead by just 0.3 points (48.4 to 48.1). That’s razor thin.”
• He emphasizes that in the seven key swing states that will decide the presidency, three have polling differences of less than 1%, while the remaining four are within 3%. The election will likely come down to seven “toss-up” states: Georgia, North Carolina, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, Michigan, Arizona and Nevada. Trump currently leads in all seven according to RCP averages, but by narrow margins.
• Essaye advises watching North Carolina and Georgia early on election night as potential barometers — if Trump wins these decisively it could signal overperformance versus polls, while close races or Harris victories would suggest the opposite.
• Importantly, Essaye points out that winning just the Sun Belt swing states is not enough for either candidate. They must win at least one Rust Belt state (Pennsylvania, Wisconsin or Michigan) to reach 270 electoral votes. He notes that if Trump wins Georgia, North Carolina, Arizona and Nevada, but Harris sweeps the Rust Belt, Harris would win 272-268.
• Given the tight race, Essaye warns that we may not have a clear winner on election night or even Wednesday morning. However, markets will likely begin pricing in the probable outcome based on early results and projections. Overall, his analysis underscores that despite market expectations of a Trump win, the election remains very much up for grabs heading into voting day.
— Overseas Americans seen as key factor in tight 2024 presidential race. Americans living abroad — numbering at least 4.4 million with 2.8 million eligible to vote — are becoming a focus for both parties in the tight presidential race between Kamala Harris and Donald Trump, Time reports (link). Historically low overseas voter turnout, only 7.8% in 2020, prompts efforts by Democrats Abroad and Republicans Overseas to mobilize voters, emphasizing digital outreach and local campaigns. Key issues include foreign policy and “double taxation,” a rare bipartisan concern. Trump pledged to end overseas tax filing requirements, highlighting the expat vote’s potential. However, GOP lawsuits challenging overseas ballots in swing states were rejected by courts, with critics calling such actions voter suppression.
— In the final days leading up to the presidential election, Donald Trump and Kamala Harris were actively campaigning across key swing states. Trump, in Pennsylvania, used fiery rhetoric, joking about extreme measures against media and making baseless claims that Democrats were attempting to steal the election. He also expressed lingering resentment over his 2020 loss, suggesting he “shouldn’t have left” office.
Kamala Harris adopted a hopeful and unifying tone during her campaign stop in Michigan. She aimed to appeal to voters by promising a break from fear-driven politics and pledged to work toward ending the conflict in Gaza. Her focus on Michigan reflects its strategic importance in securing a pathway to victory through the rust belt states, which are crucial for Democratic success.
Today’s agenda: Harris will spend her final day of campaigning in Pennsylvania, with rallies in Allentown, Pittsburgh and Philadelphia. Trump will be in three battleground states, holding events in North Carolina, Pennsylvania and Michigan.
— NBC aired a short video message from Donald Trump after coming under fire for allowing Harris to appear on Saturday Night Live, a sketch-comedy show, on Saturday. On the program, Harris told her mirror-image to “keep calm-ala and carry on-ala” and poked fun at her opponent. A member of the Federal Communications Commission suggested that the appearance violated the “equal time” rules that govern political programming.
— D.C. gears up with heightened security measures ahead of presidential election. Washington, D.C., is ramping up security as authorities and businesses brace for potential unrest following Tuesday’s presidential election, the Washington Post reports (link). New security fencing has been set up around the White House, Capitol, and Vice President Kamala Harris’s residence. The city, still marked by 2020’s protests and the Jan. 6 Capitol attack, has prepared for possible disruption by deploying all 3,300 police officers on 12-hour shifts. Business owners have reinforced properties with private security and boarded windows as a precaution, despite officials saying there is no credible threat. The Secret Service emphasized that the measures are part of broad public safety preparations.
— The dollar index falls the most in more than a month as polling data signaled the Democratic candidate Kamala Harris might be edging ahead in some swing states. Bonds and stock futures rose. Cash trade in U.S. Treasuries trade was closed in Asian trading hours as markets in Japan were closed for a public holiday. In stocks, traders are betting on volatility with the closely watched “fear index” signaling rising market stress.
— U.S. interest rate cuts are returning, with the Fed expected to announce a 25-basis-point cut on Thursday. Traders are anticipating this move, and there remains one more opportunity for a cut in December. However, JPMorgan’s strategy chief noted that a potential Trump election win could make the Fed reconsider further rate reductions.
— Harris vs. Trump: How their policies would affect U.S. consumers. The policies of Vice President Kamala Harris and former President Donald Trump present stark differences with significant implications for U.S. consumers:
• Investing: Trump aims to lower the corporate tax rate from 21%, potentially boosting corporate earnings, while Harris plans to raise it, which could have the opposite effect.
• Cost of Goods: Both propose tariff policies, but Trump’s more aggressive 10%-20% tariffs on imports may increase consumer prices. Harris seeks a federal ban on price gouging during emergencies.
• Housing: Harris aims to build 3 million housing units to increase supply, while Trump focuses on reducing demand through immigration measures, including deportations and restricting mortgages for undocumented immigrants.
• Taxes: Trump plans to extend tax cuts, fueling investments by companies and individuals, while Harris’ tax plans focus on aiding lower-income Americans while pledging to not raise taxes for those earning under $400,000 and to institute a minimum tax on billionaires.
• Childcare: Both propose expanding the child tax credit, but Harris wants to cap childcare costs at 7% of family income. Neither has addressed funding childcare facilities or workforce hiring.
— Control of the Senate is at stake in Tuesday’s election, with Republicans favored to win the majority, but Democrats still have a chance. Despite challenges, including the retirement of West Virginia Sen. Joe Manchin making the map tougher for them, Democrats’ well-funded candidates have often outperformed expectations in key races. Additionally, potential Democratic gains have emerged in states like Texas and Nebraska, providing opportunities to counterbalance Republican advances.
The Cook Political Report sees the GOP gaining control of the Senate with 51-54 seats.
Most see control of the House, like the White House, a jump ball.
— China’s legislature begins crucial session on economic stimulus amid investor concerns over potential Trump tariffs. The Standing Committee of China’s legislature has begun an important five-day session in Beijing, where economic stimulus measures are set to be discussed. The measures approved during this meeting are expected to signal the leadership’s approach to handling the country’s economic challenges. Key elements of the anticipated package include potential bank recapitalization, refinancing of local government debt, and possible support for households. This package will be closely watched by investors looking for signs that Chinese policymakers understand the gravity of the economic situation and are prepared to allocate sufficient resources to address it.
Another significant concern for investors is how China will respond if Donald Trump wins the U.S. presidential election. Trump has threatened severe tariffs of 60% on Chinese imports, which, according to UBS, could reduce China’s GDP growth by 2.5 percentage points over the following year. If such tariffs are implemented, China might need to adopt a more aggressive economic stimulus to counteract the impact.
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