It’s hard to ignore news coverage of China this month. I try not to talk too much about events there, but America’s continuing unfamiliarity with China’s culture, history, and economy make it hard to avoid.
Lately I’ve noticed more unsettling problems for the second-largest nation to the point I think, despite their skills and accomplishment, China is in trouble, or headed for it. The major reason is Xi Jinping. He simply picked the wrong moment to go full dictator.
Exhibit A is the government policy of Zero-Covid, which matches up with an ironman political image but displays remarkable ignorance of the disease and more importantly, his own citizens. Natural forces don’t respect arbitrary limits. Zero-Covid appeared a good idea until economic tradeoffs became clear.
Read More: John Phipps: China’s Zero-Covid Policy Isn’t New, It Actually Has a Gruesome Precedent
Meanwhile, China’s domestic vaccines were significantly less effective than the Western versions Xi arrogantly refused to buy. The painful experiences of Chinese lockdowns are fresh in public memory. When new variants of Covid trickled in and infection numbers rose, citizens who had previously grudgingly accepted and endured lockdowns started pushing back and voting with their feet, fleeing to unaffected areas before roadblocks went up – an understandable fool-me-once reaction. This ensures the lockdowns will be less effective. Xi’s boasting of China’s lower infection and death rates because of Zero-Covid policies leaves him little room to abandon or loosen restrictions without losing face just when he’s aiming to reach Mao-like status.
The Chinese economy was already struggling to grow, manage enormous debts, revive a morbid real estate sector, and cope with intensified trade friction across the globe. Now it will be lucky to muddle along with very modest improvement, let alone dodge a recession. The persistence of Covid there will affect the entire world to some degree.
For instance, US farmers have come to realize China isn’t just a grain buyer but a machinery parts supplier. Unlike China, however, other countries have considerable flexibility and cooperative partners and can modify public policy to balance the economic and public health threats.
Few global leaders are as insulated from their citizens as China’s. Xi not only narrowed his choices for political reasons at the wrong time, he didn’t read the room.
Read More: John Phipps: Chinese Consumers Save More Money Than Americans, Here’s What it Means
