The rapid growth of solar power has not been evenly distributed. Since states have considerable control of utility policies and rates, the differences between renewable and fossil fuel-generated electricity is dramatic even in adjacent states.
At one end of the spectrum of this transition is California, which will I believe continue to drag the rest of the country toward lower emissions. It will also serve as a pilot plant, discovering by trial and error how to scale up renewable energy. It will undoubtedly be a bleeding edge, as the saying goes. For example, here is the infamous California duck curve for electricity demand and solar power supply.
Year by year, both more efficient electrical use and more installed solar makes the curve lower, but the waves more pronounced.
The spread from peak demand to minimum was about 7 GW in 2022, which is roughly 30%. Even as more renewable power is added the problem of smoothing out net demand remains – the duck is flattening a little but still causing grid problems.
Oddly, EVs may help there, especially if recharging is timed for the middle of the night. During the high demand, EV’s could actually contribute to household supply. The obvious hope is large amounts of battery storage to feed demand in mornings and evenings from supplies stored in the afternoon. Large battery installations by utilities are already in progress.
The duck curve is echoed across the nation, but California gives us an extreme example to learn from. The most efficient electrical storage is large commercial batteries, but it is becoming clear that solutions requiring better grids for transferring power will face formidable opposition.
Between extravagant interpretations of EPA regulations, especially endangered species protection, and the ability of a handful of local officials with permitting authority, America is the place where big things don’t get done, especially across state lines.
Overriding such NIMBYs, which include too many farmers and environmental extremists, won’t happen in my lifetime. That said, never underestimate the ingenuity of Americans to improvise workarounds. Next week I’ll detail some of the ways individuals can flatten their own ducks.
