Creighton University deploys a survey every month called the Rural Mainstreet Index to community bank presidents and CEOS in rural areas to learn their opinions on current economic conditions. It includes rural and energy-dependent areas and their six-month economic outlook.
Confidence fell to a record low in April and concerns surrounding COVID-19 and other economic factors weighed heavy on the surveyed bankers. However, the most recent survey released Oct. 15, shows new confidence.
“This is the highest reading we’ve recorded since January of this year,” says Ernie Goss, professor at Creighton University and overseer of the Rural Mainstreet Index. “We’re still below in terms of unemployment, about 4% to 5% below pre-COVID level. So, we still have some work to do but we’re moving in the right direction.”
Here’s a quick look at the results:
- The overall index increased for the sixth straight month.
- More than 80% of bank CEOs said restaurants and bars have suffered the most from COVID-19 impacts.
- Just 3% of bankers identified farmers as having the greatest negative impact from COVID-19.
- Bank CEOs estimate farm equipment sales will fall an additional 3.1% over the next 12 months.
- Just over 35% of bank CEOs said their local economies are experiencing recessionary economic conditions.
- The October reading for farmland price index jumped above growth neutral—from 45.0 to 50.6 in just one month.
Farming might not have been hit as hard as some sectors due to COVID-19 lockdowns.
“Exports were really hit, so the agricultural sector did get hit but we did have federal support. Payments, which are going to make up about one-third of net farm income in 2020,” Goss says. “[And] we’re seeing farm and agricultural commodity prices have recently rebounded, so there’s some pretty good news out there for the farm sector. Now it’s other non-farm sectors that are getting hit.”
