The 2018 mid-term election saw a blue wave that strengthened democrat control of the House. Despite pollster speculation that the wave would continue into 2020, the scenario did not play out, with the GOP holding some key, targeted Senate races and making gains in the House. According to a key ag political consultant, those republican winners surfed a wave of large rural voter turnout.
“Democrats were not able to hold on,” says Karla Thieman of The Russell Group, a food and agriculture focused government affairs firm. “The 2018 wave that they were brought in on did not last this time. And the reason they weren’t able to get reelected is in large part, at least based on the data that I’ve seen, the number of rural voters who turned out for Donald Trump this time.”
Several key congressional races are still being decided, but at the moment, republicans appear to hold 48 Senate seats, democrats hold 45, according to AP. Republicans Susan Collins in Maine held on to her Maine seat and Thom Tillis in North Carolina is leading his race. The Michigan Senate race is tied.
Democrats picked up Senate Seats in Arizona with Mark Kelly and John Hickenlooper in Colorado. Republicans gained a seat in Alabama with Tommy Tuberville. Georgia, where there will be at least one runoff election in January, will be key to deciding final control of the Senate.
How will the next few days play out?
“My gut feeling is I think that Republicans are going to have the Senate by two seats,” Thieman predicts. “The house is going to be in a razor thin margin, Democrats will have it and Joe Biden will get to 270.”
