Donald Trump secured a second term in the White House after wins in key battleground states over Democratic challenger vice president Kamala Harris.
President-elect Trump garnered even stronger support in rural America this time around than in 2016.
Farm Journal Washington analyst Jim Wiesemeyer says the support from the heartland was likely backlash against the ag policy moves of the Biden-Harris Administration.
The election results are a bit of a double-edged sword for agriculture.
The good news is a Trump presidency and Republican-controlled Senate might result in fewer regulations and lower taxes, as well as at least partial support for biofuels policy.
The bad news is the U.S. could be headed for a possible trade war with China and other countries.
The future of trade is top of mind post election.
Washington insiders such as Mary Kay Thatcher say President Trump’s trade agenda won’t include renegotiation of a trade deal with China because they didn’t comply with Phase One.
Instead, he’ll immediately increase tariffs on China and other trading partners, which could mean a trade war and the demise of U.S. export markets.
Thatcher, who is senior manager of federal government and industry relations for Syngenta, says: “You have to believe that because President-elect Trump was so strong on doing tariffs before that it’s very likely he’ll follow through now. He’s talked about, at a minimum, 20% tariffs on everybody. He’s talked about 60% on China, who’s still our No. 1 ag export customer, likely to fall to two or three, but still a very important market. He’s also talked about Mexico if Mexico doesn’t stop as many people coming across the border.”
On taxes, it’s possible most of the expiring 2017 tax cuts will be renewed. Yet it might depend on if the House is controlled by Republicans or Democrats since she doesn’t believe Congress will want to increase the deficit.
“Just extending the things that will expire at the end of 2025, such as estate taxes, 199A taxes on co-ops and individual income tax rates — that’s $4 .6 trillion on top of an already really sad budget deficit.”
On energy policy, Thatcher sees at least partial support for biofuels because of rural America’s support for Trump in the election. That includes programs, such as 45Z, tied to climate and conservation and supported in Congress.
However, she says energy policy might be trimmed.
“I don’t look for him to go in and overturn the whole thing, especially if you think about some of those initiatives that have to do with agriculture. There are numerous farmers out there who have benefited from those programs and are going to speak up in support,” Thatcher explains.
There will be fewer regulations under this President and Congress. In fact, Thatcher expects a large share to go by the wayside even before Trump takes office and more to follow.
“Again, if there’s a Republican House, they’ll be using what they call the Congressional Review Act, which means they can look back at regulations written within the last 60 legislative days and they can try to overturn those,” she explains.
Another big election outcome for agriculture, is there are 50 to 60 new members of Congress that need to be educated about the importance of farming and ranching to the country.
