Market Commentary for 10/11/24
Beans
The USDA indicated the national yield was not getting bigger. Based on conversations I’ve had with producers I expect the national yield to shrink a little more by the November report.
While many producers have said their corn yields are above average, or even a record, most are saying their bean production looks disappointing. Many expect at best average yields, with some fields falling below normal.
This chart shows my current supply and demand estimates with different yield scenarios. Acres, crush, and exports remain the same.
I’m not sure it’s possible for yields to decrease more than one bushel per acre. Regardless, a huge yield reduction will be necessary for carryout to be below last year.
All of this assumes the US can export more beans this year compared to last year. That will be difficult, because South America’s production is expected to be higher than last year. Plus, current weather forecasts for Brazil appear to be favorable for on-time planting and normal yields. Unless there is a growing issue in Brazil in December or January, bean values could struggle.
Want to read more by Jon Scheve?
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Be Cautious When Listening to Anyone’s Opinion on Market Direction
Could The National Yield Be Above 185?
Could The Lows Finally Be In For The Year?
