Soybeans
Friday’s Recap
For the fifth consecutive session, Soybean futures ended higher, with the Jan contract settling Friday at 1030’2, up by 4’0. Across all maturities, a heavy 498,465 contracts changed hands, with 253,189 traded in the Jan maturity. Total open interest lost 12,866, or 1.48%, to end the session with 853,777 outstanding. The Jan maturity fell 3.93% (12,866) to finish at 344,278.
Technicals
November soybeans saw a rip higher following Friday’s WASDE report that showed a bigger yield drop than expected. Some of that optimism was offset by headlines regarding rumors of Robert Lighthizer coming back as a US Trade Representative. After the close those rumors were dismissed, but we wouldn’t be surprised to see them come back around. Now, back to the technicals. The chart looks pretty constructive. Upside resistance remains intact from 1049-1052 1/2. If you’ve been long the market you may consider reducing exposure, especially if we fail against Friday’s high of 1044. Our pivot pocket from 1018-1024 3/4 will be an will be first support to keep an eye on this week. A failure there could set prices back towards $10.00.
Technical Levels of Importance
Resistance: 1049-1052 1/2***, 1083 3/4-1087 1/2****
Pivot: 1018-1024 3/4
Support: 1006-1008 3/4***, 995 3/4-1002 1/2***
Popular Options
The Jan 940 put saw the most changing hands with 10,423 contracts done on Friday. Option open interest is largest for the March 1100 calls at 15,318, and the Jan 940 puts at 22,253.
Volatility Update
Implied Volatility settled sharply down on Friday with SVL losing 1.8, to end at a one week low of 19.11. Down by 0.0750% to a twelve year low, historical volatility (as measured by the 30-day) ended at 13.51%. The SVL Skew closed slightly higher, up by 0.7 to finish the session at -0.27.
Seasonal Tendencies Update
Commitment of Traders Update
Friday’s Commitment of Traders report showed Funds were net buyers of roughly 4.5k contracts, which puts them net short 56.4k contracts.
Check out the full Article: Grains Mixed to Start a New Week of Trade - Blue Line Futures
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