Soybeans
Wednesday’s Recap Wednesday’s Soybean market was mostly lower with the Jan contract adding 2’0 to 1003’6, a one week high. Across all maturities, a heavy 409,986 contracts were traded, with 208,308 done in the Jan maturity. Total open interest added 17,143, or 2.03%, to 862,296. Jan increased 3,526 (1.00%), finishing at 354,552.
Technicals
January soybean futures tested and held support from 980 3/4-986 like a champ yesterday. Not only did the market defend it, but it rallied back to close above our pivot pocket from 995 3/4-1002 1/2. This keeps the door open for a move to our 4-star resistance pocket from 1018-1023 3/4. A close above here and the market could have some runway to work with. The next upside objective on the chart would come in from 1049-1052 1/2.
Technical Levels of Importance Resistance: 1018-1024 3/4****, 1049-1052 1/2***Pivot: 1006-1008 3/4Support: 995 3/4-1002 1/2***, 980 3/4-986, 973 1/2***
Popular Options
The May 900 put saw the most traded with 7,487 contracts done. Largest volumes in Jan option trading were seen in the 1040 calls (2,904) and the 900 puts (4,193). Calls with the most open interest are the March 1100 strike (13,974), and for the puts are the March 980 strike (21,773).
Volatility Update As measured by SVL, implied volatility finished the day sharply lower, dropping 1.9 to end at 20.24. Down by 0.75% to a one month low, historical volatility (as measured by the 30-day) ended at 13.91%. The SVL Skew ended slightly higher, gaining 0.18 to finish the session at -0.31.
Fundamental Notes Weekly Export Sales Estimates
- 1,200,000-2,200,000 Metric tons. The previous report showed net sales at 2,273,300 MT for 2024/2025 were up 6 percent from the previous week and 39 percent from the prior 4-week average.
WASDE Estimates
- Yield: 52.8 Bushels Per Acre
- Production: 4.557 Billion Bushels
- US Ending Stocks: 532 Million Bushels
Seasonal Tendencies UpdateBelow is a look at historical price averages for January soybean futures on a 5, 10, 15, 20, and 30 year time frames (Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results). The chart seems to indicate that November can be a friendlier time of year, but recent counter seasonal trends likely have traders looking at this chart with an extra grain of salt this year. The upcoming election undoubtably has played some sort of a role in this.
See Chart and our full break down here Soybean Futures Defend Support and Rally. How High Can They Go? - Blue Line Futures
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