Produced by Storm Exchange, Inc
Cold wave will envelop the Midwest: Temperatures will be plummeting in the grain belt over the next 24 hours in a developing cold wave in the Great Plains and Midwest. Below-zero temperatures are predicted in Montana, the Dakotas, Minnesota, Wisconsin and northern Iowa, while sub-freezing weather reaches from West Texas to North Carolina. Wind chills of -10ºF are expected in southern Illinois tonight. Cold weather will last for at least 5 days, producing temperatures that will be 8-12ºF below normal in the Corn Belt.
Stormy weather along the polar front: January weather has been relatively quiet, compared with a stormy December that brought widespread rain and snow to the Midwest and South. The forecast is turning stormy again, because of an unstable boundary where cold polar air clashes with warm air. Accumulating snow will develop in Nebraska, Kansas and Iowa , spreading into central Illinois this weekend. A stronger storm will develop on the polar front Monday bringing a chance of very heavy snow to southern Illinois, Southwest Indiana and Kentucky.
Texas outlook mostly dry: Drought affected wheat farms are not expecting important moisture in the next 5 days, but light rain or snow may develop later next week, depending on where the polar front settles. West Texas has received only .25 inch of rainfall since November 1st creating a desperate need for rain in this key producing area
La Nina weather effects persisting: Recurring Midwest cold waves and drought in Texas are both symptoms of La Nina. The Storm Exchange science team believes that La Nina effects will persist for another 2-3 months, leading to increasing moisture stress in the hard red winter wheat belt. Drought is apt to expand from Texas into Kansas heading into spring.
Argentina soybeans need rain: Stressful hot and dry January weather has increased stress on developing soybeans. Argentina’s agriculture secretariat yesterday predicted a sharp drop in the seeded area due to ongoing drought that prevented growers from planting all their soybeans. The area sown may turn out to be 15% less than USDA estimated in January, retraining chances for a high production.
Can soybeans recover? Soybeans in Santa Fe have been irreversibly damaged by drought but western Buenos Aires and Cordoba soybean have a chance to make a decent yield, if heavy rains developed very soon. Soybeans have gone downhill since late December, when prospects were quite favorable due to monthly rainfall of 65-85% of normal.
Showers will develop soon: Scattered showers are predicted late in the weekend when High Pressure is dislodged by a cold front approaching from the south. The GFS model predicts variable rainfall from .6 to 1.5 inches in the grain belt -- locally heavier in strong thunderstorms. Hot weather will persist today and Saturday with highs in the mid or upper 90’s (ºF), but temperatures will plummet 15-20ºF after the front passes Sunday.
Can last year’s miracle be repeated? Serious drought also threatened Argentina’s soybean crop last year but 5-6 inches of rain in January and a cool and wet February allowed the crop to recover. Soybeans ended up making a normal yield, in the final analysis, after being on the brink of disaster. A special soybean report today will compare and contrast soy prospects in 2008 and 2009. Drought stress has been worse this season because of hotter temperatures.
Produced by Storm Exchange, Inc
