Produced by Storm Exchange, Inc
Winter storm on the way: Strong low pressure will develop on the Gulf coast Sunday night, and then will race northeastward to the Mid Atlantic states and New England Monday. Rain will turn into snow on the back side of the storm on Tuesday from the mid Atlantic coast to Boston.
Still cold in Great Lakes, Northeast: A fresh wave of polar air will descend into the Eastern third of the United States behind the storm, driving temperatures 10-20ºF below normal the middle of next week. Heating oil and natural gas usage has been elevated in the Northeast and Great Lakes in January with temperatures running 4-8ºF below normal.
Warm forecast favors cattle in feed lots: Cattle on West Texas and Colorado feed lots have benefited from a dry weather pattern and increasing warmth in January. Cold and wet winters are the worst as dampness encourages respiratory diseases. Warm winters mean that cattle require less feed to gain weight. January has been exceptionally mild with temperatures running 4-7ºF above normal.
Hard red winter wheat deteriorating: What is good for cattle is negative for wheat on the Western Great Plains. Virtually no rainfall has developed in January, and warm and windy weather made drought worse, sapping field moisture. Texas wheat has plummeted to 66% poor-very poor with intense drying in West Texas, the key producing area. February crop ratings in Oklahoma and Kansas are also expected to decline sharply on the February 1st report. Early January ratings were still quite favorable, 40% good-excellent in Oklahoma and 64% good to excellent in Kansas.
Heavy snow pack: Midwest corn and soybean farms are buried under a heavy snow pack that contains 2-5 inches of water, when melted. Growers are hoping for a warm spring so that fields have enough time to dry out for timely planting in May. The trouble with La Nina is that it produces a cold signal in the northern states. The Storm Exchange science team predicts that La Nina effects will lessen in the spring, but the timing is uncertain.
Welcome rain in Mato Grosso: Recurring strong thunderstorms this week have produced 3 inches of valuable rainfall in the key Center-West region, where soybeans are intensively cultivated. More than 2 inches of rain per week is typical in January, during the pod setting and filling period, but conditions were much drier than normal.
Rio Grande do Sul too dry: Parana soybeans stabilized with heavy January rainfall and cooler weather, but Rio Grande do Sul has been drier. Moisture stress is starting to build up after 10 days without rain. Hotter air will be building back into western RGDS on the weekend producing 90s (ºF) by Sunday. There is a minimal chance for rain.
Argentina rain relief limited: Generous 1-2 inch rains that developed last week in Santa Fe and western Buenos Aires stemmed the tide of deterioration after a month of intense drying but did little to improve the condition of the crop. Prospects for soybeans are still favorable in Cordoba, but that is the only area that did not decline in January. Late January rain came way too late for corn. Severely damaged corn will be cut for silage, leading to shrinking production. The USDA corn estimate is 21% below last season, but it is still not low enough in a historic drought.
Produced by Storm Exchange, Inc
