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India vegetable oil needs increasing: India’s vegetable oil imports rose 48% on the year in February, spurred by a sharp drop in global prices and a rising domestic demand. The large purchases come in spite of expectations for a bumper winter rapeseed harvest, now underway, and near-record soybean production in 2008. Consumption of vegetable oils has been increasing by leaps and bounds due to a higher living standard, rising 20% since 2002, according to USDA. India grows a wide array of oilseed crops, including cottonseed, soybeans, rapeseed and sunflowerseed, but still requires large imports to satisfy domestic needs.
Abnormal drying in South America: Unusually dry March weather is prematurely ripening soybeans in the tropics and stressing crops in southern growing areas that are filling pods. Very little rainfall has developed in the past 2 weeks in Mato Grosso, Goias and other tropical soy states, which together with hot temperatures is causing rapid ripening. The dry pattern is considered very detrimental for late developing soybeans in Rio Grande do Sul and Argentina that are still filling pods in March. Argentina soybeans are especially at risk for a reduced yield, due to late planting dates that pushed pod filling into March for a larger portion of the crop.
US soy production may surge in 2009: Which crop will prevail in the Midwest, corn or soybeans? The private consulting firm Informa predicts that soybeans will have the upper hand in 2009, estimating soybean acres-for-harvest may swell to 80.7 million acres against only 74.4 million acres in corn. If correct, the corn harvested area would be 5% below last year and the smallest since 2004. Soybean area would be the largest on record and 12.7% above the 10-year average. Informa figures production at 3.46 billion bushels, using a trend yield. That would be a whopping 17% increase over last year.
Southern Plains wheat improves slightly: Wheat conditions improved in Texas and Oklahoma after drought-breaking rainfall last week, but not by very much. Fifty seven percent of Texas wheat was rated poor-very poor and only 12% was considered good on USDA’s March 15th crop report, up slightly from the week before. The Texas panhandle that grows more than half the state’s wheat missed out on soaking rainfall, reporting topsoil moisture to be 93-95% short. Oklahoma’s wheat condition improved with soaking rainfall, but at 39% poor-very poor, 36% fair and 25% good-excellent, the condition of wheat was still among the lowest on record.
Kansas wheat hanging on, waiting for rain: Kansas wheat conditions slid lower last week, continuing a deteriorating trend, but crop potential was still way better than the other two states, as 42% of wheat was rated good-excellent, 41% fair and only 17% poor-very poor. Deep-rooted wheat has been subsisting on subsoil moisture, hanging on and waiting for rain. Cool weather has helped wheat, keeping evaporation down and maximizing the available field moisture. That being said, subsoil moisture is starting to run out and warm temperatures this week are creating additional stress on wheat.
When will it rain? A weak cool front will be descending into the central-southern Plains tomorrow and Thursday, but this is not expected to be a rain maker for hard red winter wheat. However scattered showers on the weekend could produce up to .5 inch of rainfall. A warm, humid air stream will be getting established in the Southern Great Plains Friday and Saturday setting the stage for showers. Further ahead, the subtropical jet stream is expected to strengthen next week, delivering a powerful storm to the Southern Great Plains.
Flood advisory in North Dakota: A rapidly melting snow pack is heightening the flood risk on wheat farms, especially near rivers and streams that are swollen with snow melt and prone to overflowing. Temperatures this week are rising into the 40’s and 50’s (ºF), rapidly melting a very thick blanket of snow that accumulated in last week’s blizzard. In addition, heavy rainfall is expected on the weekend that will worsen flooding. Wheat producers were hoping for an early spring to melt a very thick snowpack, but not all at once.
Strong warming thawing frozen Midwest fields: Strong warming and sunshine are helping to thaw frozen fields in the Upper Midwest, where sub-zero F temperatures were recorded last Thursday. Afternoon highs in the mid 50’s-low 60’s occurred yesterday afternoon in Iowa, Minnesota, South Dakota and Nebraska. Most Midwest farms will top 70ºF today. Frost is 1.5 feet deep in the northern growing areas, after a cold winter.
Midwest fields less wet than year ago: December-February precipitation averaged 4.7 inches versus 6.1 inches last year, as a weighted average on Midwest corn farms. Growers are hoping spring planting will be easier and faster than last year. In 2008, corn fields flooded with exceptional, heavy winter and spring rainfall in a swath from Missouri to Ohio. Corn planting was delayed by 1-2 weeks, as a result. The frozen field factor may be a bigger obstacle to timely planting in 2009.
Spring showers and mild temperatures on tap: Scattered light-moderate rainfall is predicted in the Midwest, beginning tomorrow in the Eastern Midwest when a cool front drops out of Canada. The Western Corn Belt will get scattered strong showers on the weekend with a different weather system. Temperatures are expected to be above normal through most of the next week. Weather conditions are vastly improved over last week’s bitter cold.
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