Produced by Storm Exchange, Inc
Midwest fields less wet than year-ago: Corn Belt farms may have a better chance for timely corn planting, due to less-wet field conditions than spring. The 2008 corn planting campaign inched forward in fits and starts, due to recurring spring showers. The bulk of Midwest corn was sown 10-14 days late and missed the early May window of opportunity for the highest yield. This year, only 28% of Midwest farms were classified as extremely wet in mid March, compared with 47% last year.
Wetness will increase: Widespread heavy rainfall is expected to develop next week affecting 80% of the Midwest Corn Belt. If the GFS model is correct, 1-1.5 inches of rainfall would drench the Corn Belt, when a strong storm develops in Colorado Monday and tracks slowly through Nebraska on its way to Minnesota Wednesday. The central and eastern Midwest will share in soaking rainfall along a horizontal warm front that will lift up through Illinois, Indiana and Michigan. Growers in Nebraska and southern Illinois will welcome heavy rainfall, but the Great Lakes region is already wet and does not need more rain.
La Niña is weakening: Sharp warming has occurred in central Pacific Ocean in recent weeks, a sure sign that La Nina is diminishing in strength. La Nina is called a “cool episode” because of colder water that develops in the equatorial Pacific Ocean. La Nina was expected to fade away in May, leading to ENSO-neutral conditions by summer, according to the Storm Exchange Science team. The wetter outlook in Central United States may be the first indicator of La Nina’s demise. The transition from drought to wetness may not be a smooth one, however. Storm Exchange lead scientist Jeremy Ross claims drought in Central United States is typically slow to resolve in spring, while La Nina dies out.
Kansas wheat stress: Wheat is coming under increasing moisture stress in the top US wheat state, due to warmer 70’s and 80’s this week compared with 40s (ºF) last week. Temperatures will chill down 10-15 F today and Thursday, when a cool front passes through the state, but only scattered light rainfall is expected, just traces to .2 inch. A humid, unstable atmosphere will develop on the weekend, when a moist air stream from the Gulf of Mexico is established in the Plains. This may lead to productive thunderstorms early next week. Field moisture deficits are most severe in the SW part of Kansas, but the entire state needs rain to replenish fields after a 4-5 month drought.
Long range forecast hopeful for rain: A strong weather disturbance is expected to develop in Colorado Monday, dragging a cool front through Kansas, Oklahoma and Texas that may become a trigger for scattered strong thunderstorms. The heaviest rainfall is expected to develop in central Kansas and Oklahoma, according to forecasting models. The wheat farms that are apt to miss heavy rainfall are the ones most stressed by drought, the Texas panhandle, southwest Oklahoma, western Kansas and Colorado.
North Dakota flooding with rapid snowmelt: A 50-60ºF swing in temperatures to the upside since last week has increased snow melt that is running off into streams and overflowing onto farm land. The 8-12 inches of snow that collected in last week’s blizzard has shrunk down to just a few inches, generating heavy snowmelt. Fields are still frozen and unable to absorb all the water. The addition of heavy rainfall next week would worsen flooding. North Dakota may receive 1-2 inches of rain with a north-tracking storm that comes out of Colorado.
Generous rainfall boosts palm oil production: Palm oil production is expected to be ample in 2009 thanks to generous rainfall in the Indonesian Basin in recent months that is linked to La Nina. India and China are the top destinations for palm oil exports out of Indonesia and Malaysia, the world’s number 1 and 2 producers. Additional vegetable oil supplies are required to supply domestic needs in China and India, where consumption is increasing by leaps and bounds, up by 15-20% since 2002.
Drought stress in Brazil’s tropical soy states: Unusual hot and dry weather is causing tropical soybeans to ripening prematurely. We expect soy yields will be lower in Bahia, Goias and eastern Mato Grosso and Mato Grosso do Sul, due to adverse dry conditions in the past 30 days. The key Center West area of Mato Grosso, where most of the state’s soybeans are produced, has been slightly dry.
Argentina dryness is damaging soybeans: A sudden change to hotter and drier weather has developed in the grain belt over the past 10-12 days, diminishing soil moisture and stressing soybeans that are filling pods. The top soy province Santa Fe is still green on a 30-day rainfall map, indicating surplus rain, but most of Cordoba and Buenos Aires look dry. Not only does the forecast call for continuing dry weather but also temperatures will rise back up into the mid and upper 80’s (ºF) on the weekend. Our 46 million ton soy production estimate is too high.
Produced by Storm Exchange, Inc
