Opinion
Analysis and insights from experts across the agriculture industry.
The corn market wasn’t very exciting this week as the range in closing prices was only 12 cents. This was the smallest one-week trading range since late July.
This week’s USDA report had positive news for farmers, with both on farm stocks and planted acres being lower than the trade was estimating.
This week’s price pull back is partly due to concern with the damage Gulf export facilities have suffered in the New Orleans area.
On Thursday, the USDA decreased the estimated national corn yield more than the trade was expecting. In the last 15 years, only 4 had estimated final yields higher in the January report compared to August’s.
The market is trying to determine what the upcoming harvest yields will be. Early reports where harvest has started south of I-80 are positive.
This week the corn and bean markets were dominated by upcoming weather uncertainty and Friday’s Supreme Court ruling against the ethanol industry and potentially the entire renewable fuels industry.
Corn and beans continue trading within tight ranges. Yield estimates seem less certain than usual for this time of year. Therefore, a sideways market may be likely until the September USDA report is released.
This week the USDA decreased the 2020 corn carryout, which lowered the stock to use ratio (i.e., the total usage compared to total production) to 2012 marketing year levels.
The USDA report found an additional 246 million bushels to add to the production side of the balance sheets.
In 12 of the last 15 years December corn futures have had a pullback in August or September. This seasonal trend is usually due to several factors.
Both July and December corn futures closed higher this week compared to the end of last week and are still at or above levels from 3 weeks ago.
New Crop Futures Prices Dry weather concerns in the Dakotas and possible ridging in the western corn belt has pushed some risk premium into the markets. December corn closed at $5.91, up 91 cents in 6 trading days.
Corn demand from China has increased dramatically over the last few months causing corn to rally $2/bu from August lows. What is causing this?
While temperatures were nearing normal last week on our farm in southeast Nebraska, a cold front has pushed in and put a stop to any planting progress.
This week’s biggest story was the inverse spread between the May and July contracts. Generally, inverses indicate the market is short on supply.
Which USDA Reports Should Farmers Give Their Attention To?
Over the last 5 trading sessions corn dropped 90 cents, while beans were nearly unchanged.
China’s purchasing of corn and beans is the biggest factor impacting the market right now.
Last week May corn prices blew past $6, and then a few days later $6.50.
USDA February Report observations and highlights that will impact farmers short and long-term.
A reader asks us about constructive receipt on grain sales. We go over the rules to have a proper deferral of grain sales.
Market Watch is an overview of the information driving ag market prices for the week. It is not intended to be trading advice. Please call Brugler Marketing & Management with questions @ 402-697-3623 for marketing aids.
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