Market Analysis
Brad Kooima, Kooima Kooima Varilek, says cattle recover Tuesday after a KS plant closure headline hurt the market. Grains see a technical bounce with a lower dollar.
Jim McCormick with AgMarket.Net says Mexico, Canada and China are the top three export customers of the U.S. and account for 40% of total exports. So, if these countries retaliate it could be devasting for trade and ag markets.
Mike Minor, Professional Ag Marketing, says the markets shook off tariff talk and saw positioning end of month and before first notice day Friday.
Jim McCormick, AgMarket.Net, says corn and soybeans slid on possible tariffs being placed on Mexico, Canada and China. Wheat ends higher on short covering.
Randy Martinson, Martinson Ag, says market reaction has been muted to possible 25% tariffs on Mexico and Canada and 10% on China on the first day of the Trump administration.
Kent Beadle with Paradigm Futures says soybeans built on Friday’s bullish reversal with talk China is looking for more U.S. soybeans. Cattle had a volatile session with a bearish Cattle on Feed Report and sorting through import restrictions on Mexican cattle due to New World Screwworm.
Brad Kooima, Kooima Kooima Varilek, says cattle futures shook off the bearish Cattle on Feed Report numbers with an announcement of New World Screwworm detected in Mexico. Soybeans built on the key reversal Friday on talk of China buying U.S. soybeans.
Tomm Pfitzenmaier with Summit Commodity Brokerage says farmers need to use the strong basis levels, especially on corn, to make some cash sales. However, there are options they can use to take advantage of a rally later on.
Scott Varilek of Kooima Kooima Varilek says cattle futures are being led by the feeders and the cash market which is on fire out in the country. Grains are sliding early despite solid export business.
DuWayne Bosse of Bolt Marketing says corn and wheat held risk premium tied to the escalating conflict in the Black Sea and despite a higher dollar.
Tomm Pfitzenmaier with Summit Commodity Brokerage says grains are facing the headwind of returning strength in the U.S. dollar index and the lack of weather threats. Soybean oil losses are additionally pulling down soybeans.
Matt Bennett, AgMarket.Net, says wheat was up for a third day continuing to see short covering by managed money traders and adding war premium. However, corn could not follow with soybeans as an anchor.
Darin Newsom, Senior Market Analyst with Barchart, says wheat is higher for a third day seeing short covering and adding risk premium with tension escalating in the Black Sea and threats by Russia to use nuclear weapons.
Ted Seifried, Zaner Ag Hedge, says wheat led the rally in the grains initially on a weaker dollar and adding geopolitical premium.
Brad Kooima, Kooima Kooima Varilek, says live cattle have held chart support so far even with lower cash and cutouts but feeders are the real leaders as funds continue to buy. Grains find strength on wheat’s lead and with a lower dollar.
Naomi Blohm, Total Farm Marketing, says grains held technical support areas on Friday and saw corrective buying. She thinks the recovery can continue after Thanksgiving.
Scott Varilek, Kooima Koomia Varilek, says cattle try to recover after a lower day Thursday following lower cash and cutouts. Grains are also trying to recover with some corrective buying.
Randy Martinson, Martinson Ag, says the risk off commodity wide selling was tied to new highs for the year in the dollar index and renewed fears about tariffs and a trade war.
Vince Boddicker, Farmers Trading Company, says grain markets are trading lower for a 4th day as technical and risk off selling accelerates and a higher dollar adds pressure.
Shawn Hackett of Hackett Financial Advisors says the weakness in grains is coinciding with the strength in the dollar in what he calls the “Trump Effect”.
DuWayne Bosse of Bolt Marketing says pressure in grains is coming from a higher dollar, lower crude oil, Trump’s political appointments and weather.
Kent Beadle with Paradigm Futures says corn and soybeans are seeing technical selling after failing at chart resistance again on Monday.
Allison Thompson with The Money Farm says pressure in the grains came from a lack of news or fresh demand, farmer selling and bearish outside markets like lower crude oil and a higher dollar.
Brad Kooima of Kooima Kooima Varilek says cattle are consolidating and the live cattle charts look horrible after Friday’s poor technical action. Soybeans try to extend gains after a higher day Friday and USDA’s 1.4 bushel per acre yield cut.
Jerry Gulke, president of the Gulke Group, says the election might have brought about a paradigm shift in the approach to agricultural policies.
Alan Brugler, A and N Economics says to keep corn and soybean prices moving higher the U.S. will need to see continued demand through the end of the year, which may be difficult with the fear of tariffs.
We recap this week’s price action and provide outlook for the next 5, 30 and 90 day segments.
USDA provides a bullish surprise on corn and soybean yields and ending stocks but little change on wheat. Jim McCormick, AgMarket.Net breaks down the report.
Scott Varilek with Kooima Kooima Varilek says grains are mixed ahead of the WASDE and despite more flash export sales. Cattle futures are under pressure with Choice boxes down over $6 and light cash at $188, also down from last week.
Mark Knight with Farmer’s Keeper Financial says grains open mixed digesting strong weekly exports and positioning ahead of the FOMC announcement and WASDE.