The agricultural headlines of 2023 have issued a steady drumbeat of drought – particularly in the Corn Belt, where so much U.S. livestock feed is grown.
But just how bad was it? As bad as the historically dry year and freshest drought memories of 2012? “Agricultural Economics Insights” blog author and economist David Widmar and his team performed a sweeping, end-of-growing-season analysis of drought conditions, and found:
- In June, drought severity was the worst since 2000, outpacing even 2012 conditions.
- June average rainfall in Illinois (19% of total U.S. corn acres) was 2.63 inches below average, and in Iowa (22% of total U.S. corn acres), it was 2.22 inches below average.
- July, however, brought relief instead of increased intensity. Consider:
- July average temperatures: 2012 – 79.5°F; 2023 – 72.7°F.
- July average precipitation: 2012 – 1.81 inches; 2023 – 3.62 inches.
- In both Iowa and Minnesota, average July precipitation was an inch or more above average.
Widmar said the drought of 2012 remains unique in the crushing effects delivered by continued, extreme heat and lack of rainfall as summer marched on. In contrast, 2023 netted out to be considerably less severe than 2012. “While drought conditions were widespread and persistent this year, they didn’t get worse as the corn and soybean crops entered their reproductive stages,” the economist stated.
And while conditions were definitely spotty, he said as a whole, 2023’s drought indicators did not approach the extremes of 2012, noting it’s a good reminder that “the worst since 2012” can still be a long way from 2012-like conditions.
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