September was one of the driest months on record for parts of the Midwest, and October has continued the dry trend, said Chip Flory, host of AgriTalk, on Tuesday’s show. He asked guest John Homenuk of Empire Weather Consulting, what shut the moisture off in the middle of the country.
“We’ve had this ridge in place since September, which we’re fortunate didn’t happen in late July and August,” Homenuk told Flory. “We’ve kind of been in this really poor cycle for moisture for several weeks.”
Homenuk said parts of the U.S. have been in a fairly weak La Nina weather pattern, which he expects will “oscillate up and down a bit” throughout this fall and into the 2024-25 winter months.
However, Homenuk does anticipate some limited moisture will start to move back into Midwest weather forecasts soon.
“For instance, late this weekend and early next week, we have a moisture opportunity coming into the Plains,” he said. “A low-pressure system could spread out of the Intermountain West into the foothills, and eventually bring some moisture to places like the Texas Panhandle, Kansas and Nebraska. That’ll be the first system to come out, and there might even be some scattered showers across parts of the Midwest early next week.”
Meteorologists anticipate weather patterns will continue to lean toward more moisture as November gets underway.
“It’ll be a slow go of it, but the feeling is that we’re through the worst of the dryness now, and we’ll start working back gradually into a more normal pattern,” Homenuk said.
Looking Ahead To Next Spring
Flory asked what kind of weather pattern farmers can anticipate going into the 2025 cropping season.
“There is some indication already on models that we’re going to split up again, between a La Nina and El Nino,” Homenuk said. “Some of the indications stay near neutral, so not a La Nina or El Nino, and some of them start actually sending us back into El Nino by spring and summer of next year. I think we need to get through the next couple of months before we really have an inclination of where it’s going to go next year.”
Flory said he’s concerned, given the weather conditions this fall, that next spring will be a dry one.
“It’s kind of common to hear people say, ‘droughts don’t start in the year that they happen. They start in the fall before.’ And I think there’s more than a few producers out there that are concerned that this drought we’ve got in the middle of the country is going to continue on into the spring of next year,” Flory explained.
Homenuk said he believes if the U.S. transitions back to an El Nino weather pattern by spring, that should be generally viewed as a good thing.
“That would reintroduce some more moisture. If we stay neutral, or we stay in a weak La Nina into the spring, then I think those lingering drought concerns could make their way into the growing season in 2025,” he added.
Weather Outlook For South America
Flory asked what kind weather South America, Brazil and Argentina in particular, will see for its growing season.
“We’re kind of into this weak La Nina scenario,” Homenuk said. “What tends to happen down there in South America is you get a little bit of a mixed bag. So, it was a slow start over the last couple of weeks, but now we’re seeing a pattern change across central Brazil, essentially Mato Grosso southward, where there’s moisture coming into the forecast over the next several weeks.”
He added that the same could likely be said for northern Argentina.
“If you look at the next 15 to 30 days, the moisture forecast is actually pretty solid. They have some ground to make up, given how dry it was before. But I think these weak La Ninas tend to be OK in those regions. It is a kind of pattern indicating that there will be some moisture around it. I think they’ve avoided the worst-case scenario, which would have been a really strong La Nina developing.”
Hear the complete conversation between Homenuk and Flory here:
