Farmers Are Holding On to 36% More Corn Compared to a Year Ago? What You Need to Know About USDA’s Surprising Changes in 10 Charts

From more corn acres than expected to a large increase in corn and soybeans currently being stored on farm, market watchers are still digesting USDA’s big June Acreage and Grain Stocks reports.

2024-Corn-Percent-Change_Web.jpg
Percent change in corn acreage in USDA’s June Acreage report.
(Lori Hayes )

USDA’s June Acreage report released Friday sent chills through the corn market. With planted acres for corn above pre-trade estimates at 91.5 million acres, the combination of more acres and growing stocks sent corn prices tumbling.

Here’s a quick recap of what USDA had to say in Friday’s June Acreage and Grain Stocks reports:

  • 2024 corn planted acreage at 91.5 million, which is down 3 percent from 2023, but above the 90 million acres in the March Prospective Plantings report.
  • Soybean acreage was pegged at 86.1 million acres, up 3 percent from last, but down from the 86.5 million in March.
  • All wheat is estimated at 47.2 million acres, slightly lower than the 47.5 in March, but down 5 percent from 2023.
  • All cotton planted acres for 2024 is estimated at 11.7 million acres, up 14 percent from last year.
  • The June Grain Stocks Report estimates on farm stocks are up even more, up 36.5 percent. USDA says there are more than 3 billion bushels of corn currently stored on the farm, which is the highest level since 1988.
  • Farmers are also holding on to more soybeans. Soybean stocks are up 22% overall. On farm stocks are even more shocking, up more than 46% since June of last year.

An In-Depth Look at Acreage Shifts

The report did come with a special note. USDA cautions farmers reported not being finished with planting when the survey was conducted between May 30 and June 16. “Nationally, corn left to be planted was 3.36 million acres. Soybeans left to be planted for the United States was 12.8 million acres,” USDA noted at the top of the report.

So, where did the planted corn acres shift in 2024 compared to 2023? According to USDA, the biggest shift to more corn acres came in the West, Western Plains and parts of the East Coast. Parts of the Southern growing areas saw a big dip in corn acres this year.

2024-Corn-Percent-Change_Web.jpg
Percent change in corn acreage in USDA’s June Acreage report.
(Lori Hayes )

As for soybeans, the shift to more soybeans happened in the Upper Midwest, Louisiana and Kentucky. Key growing acres like Iowa, saw acreage up 1 percent year-over-year. Illinois is up 3 percent.

2024-Soybean-Percent-Change_Web.jpg
Percent change in soybean creage in USDA’s June Acreage report.
(Lori Hayes )

In Friday’s report, USDA stated of the total acres planted and to be planted, 3.36 million acres were reported as remaining to be planted when the survey was conducted.

Screenshot 2024-07-01 at 11.31.25 AM.png
USDA’s corn planted and harvested acreage estimates over the past decade.
(USDA NASS)

USDA says of the total acres planted and to be planted, 12.8 million acres were reported as remaining to be planted when the survey was conducted.

Screenshot 2024-07-01 at 11.28.34 AM.png
U.S. soybean planted and harvested acreage over the past decade.
(USDA NASS)

A big question after the March Prospective Plantings report was the loss of principal crop acres, which fell 6.3 million acres year over year. But in the June report, USDA shows the loss of principal crop acres wasn’t as much, however, we are still seeing big losses in some state year-over-year.

Screenshot 2024-07-01 at 10.48.04 AM.png
Change in principal crop acreage compared to 2023.
(USDA NASS)

USDA says crops included in area considered principal acres include corn, sorghum, oats, barley, rye, winter wheat, Durum wheat, other spring wheat, rice, soybeans, peanuts, sunflower, cotton, dry edible beans, chickpeas, potatoes, sugarbeets, canola, and proso millet. Harvested acreage is used for all hay, tobacco, and sugarcane in computing total area planted and includes double cropped acres and unharvested small grains planted as cover crops.

Screenshot 2024-07-01 at 10.47.29 AM.png
Changes in principal crop acres over the past decade.
(USDA NASS)
Screenshot 2024-07-01 at 10.50.03 AM.png
Changes in principal crops since the March survey.
(USDA NASS )

The Amount of Grain Stored on Farm Skyrockets

In addition to the June Acreage report, USDA also released an updated look at Grain Stocks as of July 1. It showed farmers are holding on to a surprising amount of old crop corn with stocks up 22 percent compared to June 2023.

The June Grain Stocks Report estimates on farm stocks are up even more, up 36.5 percent. USDA says there are more than 3 billion bushels of corn currently stored on the farm, which is the highest level since 1988.

Screenshot 2024-07-01 at 10.51.27 AM.png
Corn Stocks on farm
(USDA NASS)

Farmers are also holding on to more soybeans. Soybean stocks are up 22% overall. On farm stocks are even more shocking, up more than 46% since June of last year.

Screenshot 2024-07-01 at 10.51.17 AM.png
Soybean stocks on farm
(USDA NASS)

However, both sorghum and durum wheat stocks declined compared to a year ago, according to USDA.

Screenshot 2024-07-01 at 12.26.30 PM.png
Grain Stocks
(USDA NASS)

Related Market Insights:

Corn Prices Tank After USDA’s Shocking Acreage Increase

Jerry Gulke: Where Do Prices Go From Here?

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