Farmers in the northwestern Corn Belt are experiencing déjà vu. Harvest 2025 is starting to feel like 2018 all over again. The lack of export business has widened soybean basis in North Dakota, says Frayne Olson, crop economist and marketing specialist with North Dakota State University.
China, which takes 25% of all U.S. soybeans, is facing tariffs as high as 23%. As a result, Beijing has made no purchases of new crop soybeans.
“Current soybean basis levels are anywhere from -$1.35 to -$1.55,” Olson says. “During the peak of the last trade war between the U.S. and China, we were at a -$2 in many locations.”
North Dakota farmers depend on soybean exports to China, so they’re looking for a market for more than half of their 220 million bushel crop.
“We’ve been set up to ship through the Pacific Northwest to China. Right now, with that market shut down, 120 million bushels have to go somewhere,” explains Randy Martinson, Martinson Ag in Fargo, N.D.
Farmers Might Face Storage Crunch
With $8 cash soybean bids in the Dakotas and Minnesota, and no bids for fall in a few markets, farmers might need to break the norm and store soybeans.
“The incentives are now for farmers to store soybeans on-farm and try to push some of the corn through the system as quickly as possible,” Olson says. “Our challenge with that, of course, is harvest capacity.”
Farmers are scrambling to find storage and have limited options — with old crop still to move and capacity lost to storm damage in North Dakota.
Olson says their options will depend on harvest conditions and moisture content.
“If the corn is dry enough, I think there will be a lot to put into bags. There will probably be some we’re going to have to pile outside regardless, whether they’re farm storage piles or commercial storage piles,” he says.
Other Areas Also See Basis Weaken
Basis has also weakened in other areas of the Corn Belt, such as Kansas, where big crops are predicted and processors have backed off bids for corn and soybeans, says Mark Knight with Farmers Keeper Financial.
“You’re seeing some basis get wide. They expect a big crop coming, so there’s not a big supply fear out there right now. Why pay up?” Knight says.
Farmers might have to sell overflow bushels and look at buying the crop back on the board, he advises.
“They’re looking for ways to re-own — whether it’s through futures, options or storage themselves. I think most of the guys are going to get away from paying for commercial storage,” he explains.
With the storage crunch, commercial storage costs will likely be much higher this fall.
