AgDay Markets Now: Rich Nelson Discusses If Grain Markets Can Sustain Friday’s Rally and Add Risk Premium

Grains close higher on Friday on short covering and putting in some risk premium, but will the rally continue into next week? Rich Nelson, Allendale, Inc, says it will be a tough lift.

Grains close higher on Friday on short covering and putting in some risk premium on weather and geopolitical concerns in the Middle East.

Israel launched a strike on Iran Thursday night and Iran vowed to retaliate and with that uncertainty some fund traders may have covered short positions in the grains heading into the weekend. The lower dollar was also supportive for grains.

Rich Nelson, with Allendale, Inc. says the extended forecast shows some potential for planting delays, but he thinks it’s too early to be concerned. The market will also be keeping an eye on the extended weather as the Climate Prediction Center released its summer forecast and showed at least the potential threat to trim yields.

He says the short covering bounce in soybeans came after the market came within cents of the February contract lows and bounced off that support. The soybean meal market also rallied with concerns about a lower crop in Argentina and rains which are delaying the harvest and hurting quality.

The wheat market rallied despite some rain chances for dry HRW areas in the extended forecast.

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Garrett Toay with AgTraderTalk says after the big rally to start the week the grain markets saw some profit taking and corrective selling.
DuWayne Bosse of Bolt Marketing says the wheat market was trying to extend gains early Thursday but may be getting close to pricing the Black Sea export disruptions in.
Oliver Sloup Blue Line Futures, says wheat prices skyrocketed adding risk premium on concerns about the escalating Black Sea war and the disruptions it is causing in the export market. It could have more upside left.
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