AgDay Markets Now: Rich Nelson Discusses If Grain Markets Can Sustain Friday’s Rally and Add Risk Premium

Grains close higher on Friday on short covering and putting in some risk premium, but will the rally continue into next week? Rich Nelson, Allendale, Inc, says it will be a tough lift.

Grains close higher on Friday on short covering and putting in some risk premium on weather and geopolitical concerns in the Middle East.

Israel launched a strike on Iran Thursday night and Iran vowed to retaliate and with that uncertainty some fund traders may have covered short positions in the grains heading into the weekend. The lower dollar was also supportive for grains.

Rich Nelson, with Allendale, Inc. says the extended forecast shows some potential for planting delays, but he thinks it’s too early to be concerned. The market will also be keeping an eye on the extended weather as the Climate Prediction Center released its summer forecast and showed at least the potential threat to trim yields.

He says the short covering bounce in soybeans came after the market came within cents of the February contract lows and bounced off that support. The soybean meal market also rallied with concerns about a lower crop in Argentina and rains which are delaying the harvest and hurting quality.

The wheat market rallied despite some rain chances for dry HRW areas in the extended forecast.

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Joe Kooima with Kooima Kooima Varilek says its difficult to say because the fundamentals are still sluggish with the north seeing heavy weight cattle that have not been able to find a home.
Dave Chatterton with Strategic Farm Marketing says the markets needs a catalyst like South American weather or demand to find a bottom.
Scott Varilek with Kooima Kooima Varilek says the outside market news has been a factor in cattle but the main catalyst for the selling has been sharply lower cash trade which started breaking early in the week.
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