Grain and livestock futures are mostly higher early Wednesday morning.
Grains Pop as Month End Liquidation Eases
Corn and wheat futures are higher leading the gains as selling pressure from selling and rolling ahead of first notice day on Friday is starting to subside. Hillari Mason with Pro Farmer says farmers had to roll or sell December futures or basis fixed contracts before Wednesday or risk delivery and so most of the commercial positioning is done which will take pressure off the market. The volume in the grains is low she says due to the holiday so that has also played a role.
Soybeans Higher Following Corn and Wheat
Soybeans started off weak with no confirmation of the rumored China business from USDA in the form of a flash sale. However, with the strength in corn and wheat futures soybeans started to follow.
Talk of China Soybean Business....Again
There was talk overnight that China may have purchased U.S. soybeans following the call between President Trump and Chinese President Xi on Monday. Reuters confirmed 10 cargoes but there has been trade talk of up to 14 loads. USDA Secretary Brooke Rollins said on CNBC China has purchased another $300 million worth of U.S. soybeans and has also said the U.S. and China would be officially signing the deal on those and other purchases in the next two weeks.
The market has failed to get excited on the most recent sales as they were priced into the market according to Mason. She says fund traders want confirmation of more of the reported 12 MMT of business, and in a hurry, before jumping back in the market to buy. How much volume will be needed to get them interested is unknown.
South American Weather Watch
Mason says by next week the market will start to pay more attention to South American weather. Right now the soybean planting pace is slightly behind and there have also been around 3.5 million acres of ground impacted by flooding in Argentina. However, she says it is too early to get real concerned about production losses on soybeans. The bigger impact of the delayed soybean planting may be on second crop corn planting and production in Brazil, so that is something the market is going to be monitoring closely.
2026 Acreage Projections
With one harvest almost wrapped up the trade is already starting to look ahead to 2026. Acreage expectations indicate a shift from less corn, to more soybeans and that includes the Farm Journal Ag Economists Monthly Monitor. U.S. farmers are anticipated to reduce corn plantings in 2026 from the nearly 90-year high of 98.7 million acres in 2025, with economists projecting between 91 million and 95 million acres, largely due to crop rotation and higher input costs
compared to soybeans. Soybean acres are expected to increase significantly from 81.1 million in 2025 to a projected 82
million to 86 million acres. Total wheat acres are predicted to decline from 45.3 million in 2025, with most estimates
falling between 44 million and 45 million acres, which is owed to wheat’s weak profitability outlook.
Wheat Pops Watching Black Sea Talks
Wheat futures were higher on Tuesday with help from a lower dollar index. The dollar is a bit stronger on Wednesday morning but the market is still higher with first notice day selling out of the way. She says the market is watching the developments regarding the peace deal between Ukraine and Russia as it will have an impact on global export trade.
Fed Expected to Lower Rates
The equity markets have been sharply higher the last few days as the sentiment has now shifted to a higher likelihood of the Fed lowering interest rates in December. That will have an impact on money flow in the grain and livestock complex as well.
Cattle Sharply Higher Despite Lower Cash
Cattle futures are sharply higher early after seemingly finding support on the charts on Tuesday and bouncing. Mason says the market got overdone with the bearish reaction to the Tyson beef plant closure news and is due for a correction. The market is rallying despite news of lower cash trade. Light sales were reported Tuesday in the North dressed at mostly $330, down $15 and live sales were mostly at $210. Southern business was at $215, again light, but around $8 below last week’s weighted averages.
