Grains futures were higher early Thursday led by soybeans. Cattle were mixed with hogs higher.
Soybeans Continue Rally Bidding for Acres
Soybeans continued to rally on Thursday. Lane Akre, economist with Pro Farmer, says this isn’t just short covering. He doesn’t think the market is that concerned about South American weather as the dryness is mostly confined to Argentina and may not have a big impact on Brazilian production. Instead he believes the markets is realizing USDA’s 1.525 billion bu. export estimate is too low and is now bidding for soybean acres with higher prices. USDA reported another flash sale of 7.1 million bu. of beans to unknown destinations again Thursday morning.
Corn Soybean Ratio Tipping Towards Soybeans
Akre says analysis of the corn soybean price ratio shows it currently at 2.4 to 1 which would favor soybeans. However, he thinks corn acreage for 2026 will be down about 3.5 million acres at 95 million acres, which is the same as S&P Global’s latest forecast. Soybean acreage could be up over 3 million acres but that may not be enough with the current export and crush demand. Currently S&P Global is estimating soybean acres will rise 2.3 million to 84.5 million.
Akre says their estimate is based on the current corn to soybean price and crop insurance guarantee ratios, which influences acres and that was true in 2025. “So that ratio has a ten year average of about 2.4 last year following the tariff threats on China. The market knew that we weren’t going to be exporting a lot of beans to China. So that ratio fell down to about 2.25 and that’s when we saw acres explode up to that 98 million acre mark. Here this week, that ratio is basically went from 2.3 up to 2.4. So right near average and above 2.4 is where we start to see soybeans really start to gain more market share but the change hasn’t been that big.”
So with soybean carryout tight at 350 million bushels and with improved exports, he thinks the soybean market may need to rally soon to attract more acres “But it’s not only what soybeans does. If corn just stays at $4.20 like it’s done over the past week. I don’t think soybeans are going to have to work that hard. You get pushing above $11 and I think the market, I think people are going to start planting more soybeans pretty quickly. Once that happens, especially if that ratio gets to 2.5, 2.6 we’ve seen that happen earlier in the 2020s, when there was a lot of hype and a lot of exports with the phase one trade agreement, a lot of hype with crush, we saw a lot of soybean acres.” That corn soybean price ratio will be reinforced with the spring crop insurance price guarantees being set during February.
Can Soybeans Get Above $11?
So what price level will producers need to see to add soybeans acres in 2026? Akre says the market will need to get above $11 and he thinks that is possible in the near term as farmers are making those decisions right now. Technically, the market is running up into chart resistance with march needing to clear the $10.70 mark and close above it to extend the rally.
China Done Buying Soybeans or Are They Buying More?
U.S. Trade Representative Jamieson Greer stated this week that China has met its 12 MMT purchase requirement from the U.S. However, Akre says even when he includes business to unknown destinations he doesn’t come up with a total that large for China exports. The other question will be once China gets to 12 MMT will they just shut off their buying and only purchase cheaper Brazilian soybeans? Akre says China may come back in by August like they normally do but he thinks that will be the start of the next round of purchases that will be included in the 25 MMT for the following year. Whether or not China will uphold that entire commitment is still yet to be seen according to Akre.
Will Corn Follow Soybeans?
If soybeans rally over $11 will corn need to follow to hold on to acres? Akre thinks with a 17 billion bu. crop and ending stocks over 2.2 billion bu. the market will be comfortable hovering around the $4.20 mark for a while. So far March corn has seen the rallies capped at $4.25 as farmer selling has picked up at those levels.
Can Wheat Sustain a Rally?
Winter wheat futures are higher trying to follow corn and seeing some short covering but Akre doesn’t think the market is really that concerned about the bitterly cold weather in winter wheat areas as there is snow that will accompany the cold blast. He says wheat will struggle to maintain any gains as Akre says global supplies are just too burdensome for the market and provide too much competition for the U.S. While export demand is running 20% ahead of last year, he says it is just not enough to offset the big supplies.
Cattle Chop Ahead of Cattle on Feed
Cattle futures were mixed early chopping ahead of cash direction and the UDSA Cattle on Feed Report. Akre says cattle continue to trade within last week’s trading ranges and will likely do so until the market sees higher cash or confirmation of tight placements.
Lean Hogs Make New Highs
Lean hog futures continued to rally with deferred contracts hitting new contract highs. Akre says the market has been pulled up by the rising cash market and fund buying. However, with the summer months closing in on $110 he thinks there will soon be some hedge pressure that will set back the market.
