Market Analysis
Scott Varilek, Kooima Kooima Varilek, says cattle futures are holding together despite lower cash trade, while grains are finally seeing a bounce in reaction to a China deal on rare earths.
Kevin Duling, KD Investors, says the funds continue to sell in the grain markets, and both old and new crop corn hit new contract lows Thursday before bouncing off those levels. So, how much more downside risk is there?
DuWayne Bosse of Bolt Marketing says the grain markets have seen massive fund selling this week pushing corn to new contract lows but it has been spurred by a number of bearish factors.
Bryan Doherty, Total Farm Marketing, says grains failed to extend gains on Friday hitting chart resistance, but there was another big factor.
Jerry Gulke, president of the Gulke Group, says Friday’s technical action in soybeans signals to him EPA’s higher blending levels for bio-mass based diesel for 2026 are priced into the soybean and bean oil markets.
Randy Martinson, Martinson Ag, says grains are seeing a quiet session on Friday with thin post-holiday trade. However, at least wheat is failing to extend the big gains seen on Wednesday.
Rich Nelson with Allendale says wheat led the charge higher in the grains inserting war and weather premium but also seeing some short covering. Cattle and hogs recovered from Tuesday’s collapse.
Scott Varilek with Kooima Kooima Varilek says cattle futures are trying to recover after tanking Tuesday due to geopolitical and war concerns and the lower day in the stock market.
Mike Minor of Professional Ag Marketing says grains saw technical buying on Tuesday while livestock fell with the financial markets on the conflict between Iran and Israel and a flip flop on ICE raids in packing plants.
Darin Newsom, senior market analyst with Barchart, says grains are slightly higher Tuesday morning. While outside markets are reacting to the conflict between Israel and Iran.
Tomm Pftizenmaier of Summit Commodity Brokerage says soybeans saw some follow through buying on Monday but it was somewhat disappointing considering the limit up move in soybean oil.
Brad Kooima of Kooima Kooima Varilek says cattle futures started the day higher in recovery mode after a poor technical close on Friday and a bearish reversal lower for the week. Soybeans continue to rally on the heels of the surge in bean oil on EPA’s surprise biofuels news.
Jerry Gulke, president of the Gulke Group, says the news EPA is raising blending mandates for biomass-based diesel above expectations came as a surprise but was positive for farmers and the biofuels industry.
Soybeans were up sharply on Friday with soybean oil locked limit up on all of the contracts. Alan Brugler, A&N Economics, says it was in reaction to the EPA’s proposed Renewable Volume Obligations, which were especially bullish for biomass based diesel.
Scott Varilek, Kooima Kooima Varilek, says cattle are seeing risk off selling tied to the news overnight of escalating war between Iran and Israel which has the financial markets sharply lower. Bean oil is limit up on news of higher blending levels for biomass based diesel.
Dave Chatterton of Strategic Farm Marketing says corn was slightly higher with tighter ending stocks, while soybeans fell on the rumor of lower RVO levels.
Craig Turner with StoneX says the markets were initially charged by news the U.S. and China had reached a trade framework. However, the deal was lacking in detail just like so many of the trade deals touted by the administration.
Kent Beadle with Paradigm Futures says the grain market is getting some support from news a framework has been worked out between the U.S. and China to at least call a truce on tariffs and remove restrictions on rare earth mineral imports.
Chip Nellinger, Blue Reef Agri-Marketing says the corn market saw a technical bounce and even some bull spreading on Tuesday, but most of it was tied to short covering. While cattle reacted to ICE raids at Omaha, NE meat plants.
Vince Boddicker, Farmers Trading Company, says old crop corn made another new low for the move overnight with national crop ratings improving by 3% to 71% good to excellent. The corn complex continues to face headwinds from weather, with no major threats on the horizon.
Chuck Shelby with Risk Management Commodities says Monday’s action in the grain markets was disappointing as the funds came back into sell in the grain complex.
Brad Kooima with Kooima Kooima Varilek says cash cattle trade shattered previous records last week and the futures are continuing to make new all-time highs on Monday in both live and feeder cattle futures.
Jerry Gulke, president of the Gulke Group, says the gains were impressive considering the ongoing uncertainty regarding weather, trade and the geopolitical environment.
Garrett Toay with AgTraderTalk says grains also saw mostly higher weekly closes mostly as a result of technical buying.
Scott Varilek, Kooima Kooima Varilek, says cattle futures gapped higher on the opening Friday and made all-time highs once again. Futures are still chasing record cash.
Jeff Hoogendoorn, with Professional Ag Marketing, says hogs ended mixed Wednesday, consolidating after the recent rally driven by higher cash and cutouts. While soybeans rallied after the Trump/Xi call.
Mark Knight with Farmers Keeper Financial says grains opened higher on news of a call between President Trump and Chinese President Xi then traded on both sides of steady.
Tommy Grisafi of Nesvick Trading says it was a risk on day in the grains as they attempted to add weather premium on the hot, dry extended forecasts. “I feel like these markets have very little if any weather premium.”
Kevin Duling with KD Investors says corn and soybeans are building on the reversals scored on Tuesday after corn made new lows for the move and then bounced. Wheat is reluctantly following.
Don Roose, U.S. Commodities, says corn and soybeans finally bounced Tuesday after closing lower for several days. He says both markets were adding risk premium and scored reversals.