Market Analysis
John Heinberg, Total Farm Marketing, says soybeans saw profit taking pressure early Tuesday but clawed back to close slightly higher with the help of the soybean oil market. However, corn continues to fail.
Tomm Pfitzenmaier, Summit Commodity Brokerage, says soybeans are seeing some profit taking after the rally Monday and after running into chart resistance in the July contract around $10.75 Monday night.
Chip Nellinger, co-owner of Blue Reef Agri-Marketing, says soybeans soared on the combination of positive China trade news and the bullish May WASDE.
At least on the surface, USDA’s estimates for both old and new crop corn and soybean ending stocks were below average trade guesses. However, Jim McCormick, AgMarket.Net, says there is some skepticism due to tariff considerations.
The markets have several big headlines they’re digesting including news over the weekend that China and the U.S. are de-escalating the tariff war.
Mike Zuzulo, Global Commodity Analytics, says the strength in soybeans was tied to optimism about tariffs on China being lowered by the U.S., while wheat saw some short covering.
Scott Varilek, Kooima Kooima Varilek, says cattle continue to hit all-time highs in cash and futures. While corn is seeing some short covering after new lows for the move on Thursday.
May futures are in the process of printing a monthly key reversal. Ironically, this is just what it did five years ago in August 2020. Coincidence you might think?
Randy Martinson, Martinson Ag, says corn made new lows for the move in tandem with wheat and faded strong export sales and the U.K. trade deal.
Darin Newsom, Senior Market Analyst for Barchart, corn and wheat are anchoring each other lower with the market shifting its focus to larger supplies ahead and comfortable available stocks.
Dave Chatterton, Strategic Farm Marketing, says the markets faded the news as the realization set in that no major breakthroughs in the trade talks are expected and a long term trade deal with China could take quite some time.
Kent Beadle, Paradigm Futures, says corn and soybeans rallied overnight and early Wednesday on the news China and U.S. are beginning trade talks this weekend.
Rich Nelson with Allendale, Inc. says grain markets saw pressure from combination of factors including weather and fast planting pace.
Brad Kooima, Kooima Kooima Varilek, says cash cattle trade was record high again last week with $223 live paid in much of the North and even a few $224 trades to a regional. Grains are mostly lower.
Jerry Gulke, president of the Gulke Group, says there are several factors that indicate to him the chance to rally old crop corn to $5 is over.
Oliver Sloup, Blue Line Futures, says there was risk on buying across the commodity and financial markets due to more positive trade news and economic headlines.
Scott Varilek, Kooima Kooima Varilek, says cattle futures continue to hold strong with more record cash. While grains are also in the green on value buying and trade hopes.
Kevin Duling, KD Investors, says soybeans see a bounce Thursday after four down days on technical buying and with help from soybean oil.
Randy Martinson, Martinson Ag, says corn and wheat futures are seeing some technical buying with first notice day and end of month positioning out of the way.
Craig Turner, grain and oilseed analyst with StoneX, says corn and wheat saw corrective buying as it was end of the month and past first notice day for May futures.
DuWayne Bosse, Bolt Marketing, says corn and wheat are seeing end of the month short covering and some pressure taken off now that First Notice Day is in the rear view mirror.
Allison Thompson with The Money Farm says a combination of bearish factors combined to pressure the grain markets Tuesday including the fast planting pace.
John Heinberg, Total Farm Marketing, says corn and soybeans see pressure from the fast planting progress and an open weather forecast next week, plus first notice day positioning.
Alan Brugler, A&N Economics, says wheat and corn ended lower but soybeans rebounded after early pressure. Cattle made more contract highs.
Brad Kooima, Kooima Kooima Varilek, says grains are seeing pressure on weather. However, both live and feeder cattle futures are making new contract and all-time highs on last week’s record cash.
Jerry Gulke, president of the Gulke Group, says, “Soybeans have been the surprise and there are several factors that have allowed that market to remain resilient.”
Don Roose, U.S. Commodities, says grains had a quiet day as they were also consolidating around strike prices as it was May option expiration.
Scott Varilek, Kooima Kooima Varilek, says live cattle traded two-sided early Friday as the market awaits larger scale cash development with stronger prices anticipated. Grains are quietly mixed.
Darin Newsom, Senior Market Analyst with Barchart, Inc., tries to explain the higher day in the grains, especially soybeans, with the bearish Chinese trade news. So, what drove the rally?
Mike Minor, Professional Ag Marketing, says grain and livestock futures are seeing consolidation with an eye on China trade news, exports and weather.