Market Analysis
DuWayne Bosse of Bolt Marketing says the profit taking in the grain markets seems to be fading as the focus shifts to weather and China trade optimism.
Chuck Shelby with Risk Management Commodities says grain markets continue to see profit taking after the recent relief rally pushed old crop corn, soybeans and wheat up into technical resistance on the charts.
Kent Beadle, Paradigm Futures, says selling continues in much of the grain complex early Tuesday on profit taking as corn, soybeans and wheat contracts have all run into technical resistance.
Brian Grete, Pro Farmer, says grains see a healthy correction on profit taking after hitting resistance. Cattle continue to recover with the S&P but for how long?
In times of chaos, it’s best to go back to the basics of basis and price. Effective risk management has little room for mistakes, but that doesn’t mean it has to be perfect.
Brad Kooima, Kooima Kooima Varilek, says cattle are seeing followthrough buying and strength Monday morning as the S&P 500 continues to stabilize and recover after the tariff delays.
Jerry Gulke, president of the Gulke Group, says the April WASDE confirmed the tighter balance sheets he had been expecting for several reports but that’s just the start of the bullish news.
Bryan Doherty, Total Farm Marketing, says the way the markets shook off the escalating trade war with China was impressive but it will take several factors converging to keep the momentum going.
Mark Schultz, Northstar Commodity, says the ag markets have handled the escalation of the trade war with China remarkably well this week.
Chip Nellinger, Blue Reef Agri-Marketing, says corn and soybeans ended higher with lower ending stocks in the WASDE as corn fell below the 1.5 billion bu. mark.
Scott Varilek with Kooima Kooima Varilek says cattle are trading lower Thursday morning with the retreat in the stock market. Grains are mixed ahead of the WASDE, but he doesn’t expect any market moving news from the report.
Arlan Suderman, StoneX Chief Commodities Economist says the markets reacted positively to the 90-day delay on reciprocal tariffs for countries that reached out to negotiate with the U.S. and did not retaliate.
Kevin Duling, KD Investors, says grains are shaking off the news of an escalation of the trade war with China as they announced overnight they would be placing an additional 50% retaliatory tariff on U.S. goods, including ag.
Mike Minor, Professional Ag Marketing, says while the tariff news was a bit more subdued Tuesday the markets are still watching tariff headlines and that is impacting money flow in and out of the financial sector as well as the commodities.
Darin Newsom, Senior Market Analyst for Barchart, says it could just be an oversold bounce as the equity markets have reached bear market territory and that stabilization is helping to firm up the grain and especially the livestock futures.
Naomi Blohm, Total Farm Marketing, says grains rebound as the market has absorbed much of the tariff news. Meanwhile, livestock saw follow through selling and triple digit losses.
Brad Kooima, Kooima Kooima Varilek, says after a lower start the ag markets reversed with the stock market.
Jerry Gulke, president of the Gulke Group, says one of the markets that was able to cut through the tariff noise and end higher for the week was corn.
Garrett Toay, AgTraderTalk, says soybeans, livestock and outside markets all had a negative response to China imposing retaliatory tariffs on U.S. imports of an additional 34%. But why was corn up for the week?
Scott Varilek, Kooima Kooima Varilek, says the panic selling continues as China has hit back with a 34% retaliatory tariff on all U.S. goods and other trading partners are looking at counter measures. “This feels a lot like the COVID market response.”
Jim McCormick, AgMarket.Net, says the markets saw risk off selling in response to President Trump’s Liberation Day tariff announcement. He says the markets may not stabilize until after the tariffs go into effect April 9 and trading partners tip their hand on retaliation.
Kent Beadle, DTN market analyst, says grain and livestock futures are sharply lower with a knee jerk reaction to the announced tariffs from President Trump on Wednesday.
Tomm Pfitzenmaier, Summit Commodity Brokerage, says grains saw risk off selling and positioning ahead of President Trump’s Liberation Day announcement on tariffs. However, Mexico’s president says they don’t want a tit for tat trade war.
Randy Martinson, Martinson Ag, says grains are not seeing follow through buying after the strong closes on Tuesday as the market is trading tariff fears.
Tommy Grisafi, Nesvick Trading, says grain futures saw risk on buying as traders were adding weather premium but biofuels news was also supportive.
DuWayne Bosse of Bolt Marketing says the grain markets are still digesting the USDA report data but are looking ahead now at weather and the impact of “Liberation Day.”
Darren Frye with Water Street Solutions says the USDA Prospective Plantings and Quarterly Stocks Reports usually generate plenty of fireworks but the reaction was rather benign.
Brad Kooima of Kooima Kooima Varilek says the cattle are seeing pressure on end of quarter profit taking by the funds who are still long in the market. Grains are mixed ahead of the big USDA reports.
Randy Martinson, Martinson Ag, says he expects more corn in the Dakotas and Minnesota but at the expense of more spring wheat than soybeans.
Kent Beadle, Paradigm Futures expects high volatility at the end of the month and recommends farmers get some sort of risk management strategy in place to at least put a flood under grain prices.