Market Analysis
Darin Newsom, senior market analyst with Barchart, says wheat is holding weather premium with the deteriorating crop conditions but longer term higher energy prices could spark some inflationary buying in grains.
The soybean market looked like it was ready to breakout but Sam Hudson with Cornbelt Marketing says they hit chart resistance and saw profit taking.
However, Bryan Doherty with Total Farm Marketing says the corn and soybean markets are at a crossroads in the new crop contracts and need a catalyst to get above resistance.
Soybeans and multi-year highs in the soybean oil market led the grain complex higher on Tuesday according to Mike Minor with Professional Ag Marketing.
Soybeans saw early gains Tuesday with help from a rally in both bean oil and soybean meal and that is supporting corn says Hillari Mason with Pro Farmer. However, several other factors were supporting early strength.
Alan Brugler with A&N Economics says corn got some support from higher crude oil and soft red winter wheat plus other demand fundamentals.
Joe Kooima, Kooima Kooima Varilek says live cattle futures held key support on Friday and are higher Monday but can the market retest the record highs?
Grains initially saw pressure in tandem with the plunge in the energy markets on Friday on optimism about the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz but ended well off session lows says Matt Bennett with AgMarket.Net.
Scott Varilek with Kooima Kooima Varilek says cattle plunged late week after contract highs due to fears of the border reopening to Mexican imports.
Wheat futures rallied on Thursday adding weather premium with expanding drought and a mostly dry forecast for the Western third of the Plains says Naomi Blohm of Total Farm Marketing.
DuWayne Bosse with Bolt Marketing says funds are buying and covering short positions due to expanded drought in hard red winter wheat country on Thursday’s U.S. Drought Monitor and the lower crop conditions.
Rich Nelson with Allendale says while he doesn’t agree with it, the corn market was seeing some weather premium added on concerns about planting delays which takes away the argument for record acreage.
Brian Grete with CommStock Investments says soybeans were higher Wednesday on optimism about the mid-May meeting with China and corn was following.
According to Tommy Grisafi of Nesvick Trading money flow the last two sessions in the outside markets had a huge impact on ag markets.
Jon Scheve with Scheve Grain thinks the grain markets have transitioned over to trading more of its own fundamentals.
Mark Schultz with Northstar Commodity says the grains and energy sector started higher on war headlines but peaked out quickly by mid session acting like it wasn’t that concerned about the war.
Live cattle futures made new and all-time contract highs on Friday with the April contract closing above $250.
Don Roose with U.S. Commodities say soybeans followed meal and hold a premium on hopes of China business.
Chip Nellinger with Blue Reef Agri-Marketing says, “USDA did rearrange some of the soybean demand estimates with crush raised 35 million bu. while exports were lowered the same amount.”
Ted Seifried with Zaner Ag Hedge says markets were removing war premium but the key is will the ceasefire stick and does the Strait of Hormuz get reopened?
The commodity wide selling pressure was tied to risk aversion and uncertainty regarding the escalation of the Iran War according to Mark Knight with Farmers Keeper Financial.
Brad Kooima with Kooima Kooima Varilek says the live cattle futures are chasing sharply higher cash trade from last week.
Shawn Hackett with Hackett Financial Advisors says corn and soybeans are experiencing war fatigue and are tired of chasing every headline.
Darin Newsom, senior market analyst with Barchart says the grains are chasing the sharply higher crude oil prices which were up over $10 and Iran war headlines.
Bryan Doherty with Total Farm Marketing says the grain markets markets were removing war and weather premium. Will that continue with if the Iran war is indeed over?
DuWayne Bosse with Bolt Marketing says with the reports out of the way the grain market has gone back to trading Iran war headlines and following the crude oil market
Arlan Suderman with StoneX some of the support in the grains Tuesday came from money flow but lower wheat and soybean acreage than anticipated also added to the buying interest.
Corn, soybeans and bean oil futures ended lower on Friday fading EPA’s final Renewable Fuel Standard volumes. Dan Basse, Ag Resource Company, says the news was already priced into the markets.
Joe Kooima with Kooima Kooima Varilek says the ability of the cattle market to divorce itself from the outside markets the last two sessions has been very impressive.
Soybeans futures extended nice gains from Wednesday with demand optimism surrounding the rescheduling of the China summit for May 14 -15 and the announcement of RVOs says Jim McCormick of AgMarket.Net.