Market Analysis
Brad Kooima, Kooima Kooima Varilek, says grains are weak on more tariff talk. Cattle opened strong with the slightly friendly numbers in the Cattle on Feed Reported Report and a possible cash bottom forming.
Jerry Gulke, president of the Gulke Group, thinks the corn market may just be taking a pause to refresh and he hasn’t changed his bullish stance. “I’m willing to have some patience,” he says.
Scott Varilek, Kooima Kooima Varilek, says corn and soybeans fell heading into the weekend on profit taking and technical selling, plus lower crude oil and a higher dollar.
Mark Schultz, Northstar Commodity, says corn and soybeans are lower on profit taking after a higher day yesterday.
Chip Nellinger, Blue Reef Agri-Marketing, says soybeans and products led the rally and recovery on talk of a China deal by President Trump and a lower dollar. That spilled over to support corn.
Randy Martinson, Martinson Ag says corn and soybeans are trying recover after the lower closes Wednesday tied to talk by President Trump that the U.S. will reach a trade deal with China.
Matt Bennett, AgMarket.Net, says corn made new highs for the move with the March contract reaching a high of $5.04 1/2 before reversing and ending lower on the day. The key is was it topping action?
Kevin Duling, KD Investors, says grains closed higher on fund buying and March corn closed above $5 with March Chicago wheat closing above $6.
Kent Beadle, Paradigm Futures, says grains faded early strength as corn finally gets above $5 on the March or front month contract and sees farmer selling and profit taking.
Is it possible the wheat market is finally seeing the same paradigm shift that’s already taken place in the corn market? Jerry Gulke is watching several signals for an answer, including speculator activity in the wheat market.
Garrett Toay, AgTraderTalk, says grains saw technical buying led by wheat and surged to end the week. However, there were also some big fundamental drivers.
Scott Varilek, Kooima Kooima Varilek, says grains are rallying but cattle are seeing some selling pressure again ahead of a three day weekend but are holding chart support.
Rich Nelson of Allendale says grains closed quietly higher with corn and wheat supported by strong weekly exports.
Mike Minor, Professional Ag Marketing, says the rally in corn was fueled by fund buying especially after inflation data in the CPI ran hot. Pressure in soybeans came from South American hedge pressure.
DuWayne Bosse, Bolt Marketing, says after a lower opening Wednesday corn recovered nicely on fund buying and a fresh export sale.
Brian Grete with Pro Farmers says grains sold off into the close Tuesday disappointed about the lack of changes in the domestic balance sheets in the WASDE.
USDA left domestic balance sheets for corn and soybeans unchanged in the February WASDE but did make slight revisions in South American production.
Tomm Pfitzenmaier, Summit Commodity Brokerage, says corn held its own on Monday and closed higher, squaring ahead of the February WASDE.
Brad Kooima, with Kooima Kooima Varilek, says live and feeder cattle futures have bounced off trendline support, at least so far. Grains are positioning ahead of USDA reports, watching weather and tariff news.
Jerry Gulke, president of the Gulke Group, says grains took a pause Friday in preparation for the February WASDE but is in the critical price discovery process before planting.
Alan Brugler, A&N Economics, says grains pulled back Friday on profit taking after hitting chart resistance and with uncertainty about trade and administrative policies.
Scott Varilek with Kooima Kooima Varilek says cattle futures are trying to recover after the trifecta that tanked the futures Thursday and pulled down cash as well. Grains are lower on profit taking and SA weather.
Dave Chatterton, Strategic Farm Marketing, says grain markets rebounded late session led by wheat.
Darin Newsom with Barchart says ag markets continue to ride the roller coaster of headlines about tariffs and policy changes being imposed by the Trump Administration. This is driving fund and algorithm trading.
Kevin Good, Vice President of Industry Relations and Analysis with CattleFax, says the herd is still shrinking and so are slaughter levels and that will mean more record prices in 2025.
Brad Kooima, Kooima Kooima Varilek, says cattle futures continue to consolidate off recent record highs in routine profit taking mode. Grains extended gains on hopes for a China deal and the pause on tariffs for Canada and Mexico.
John Heinberg, Total Farm Marketing, says grains opened lower on Monday but recovered shortly after the opening when news broke that the U.S. would delay tariffs on Mexico for 30 days to allow negotiations.
Brad Kooima, Kooima Kooima Varilek, says grain and livestock futures opened mostly lower in response to tariffs imposed on China, Canada and Mexico over the weekend and retaliatory measures from those countries.
Bryan Doherty with Total Farm Marketing says most markets had a negative reaction to to the 25% tariffs on Mexican and Canada starting this weekend and possible retaliation.
Randy Martinson, Martinson Ag, says grain and hog markets opened lower reacting to President Trump announcing Thursday afternoon the U.S. would be moving ahead with 25% tariffs on Mexico and Canada on Feb. 1.