Market Analysis
Craig Turner, with StoneX, says corn and soybeans saw some early pressure on profit taking after hitting chart resistance and some farmer selling was also noted, both from U.S. and South American producers.
Tomm Pfitzenmaier, Summit Commodity Brokerage, says corn and soybeans continued to see gains from strong technical closes on Friday and extending the report rally.
Brad Kooima, Kooima Kooima Varilek, says live cattle futures are consolidating which is healthy. Meanwhile, corn and soybeans make new highs for the move still digesting USDA’s bullish report data and the shocking cuts in yield, production and ending stocks.
Jim McCormick of AgMarket.Net, says South America is setting up for a record crop. “I think at this point Brazil will have a huge crop, 172 to 175 MMT, that’ll more than offset at what we lost here in the U.S.”
Shawn Hackett with Hackett Financial Advisors says it will be tough for corn to run to $5 because report just confirmed what the market already knew.
USDA lowered corn yield a whopping 3.8 bu. and soybeans 1 bu. which led to lower production and ending stocks.
Scott Varilek of Kooima Kooima Varilek says the cattle futures are digesting another week of record cash trade at $320 dressed, up $5 and the South traded some $200 live, up $4.
Grains are firmer ahead of USDA reports and 45Z guidance.
Grains are firmer ahead of USDA reports and 45Z guidance.
Allison Thompson with The Money Farm says corn has rallied nearly $1 and soybeans around 50 cents off the lows. So production and ending stocks will need to come in well under trade estimates in the USDA reports for prices to push higher.
Mark Schultz, Northstar Commodity, says corn and soybeans saw pressure from some rain added to the 11-15 day weather forecast in Argentina and Southern Brazil and USDA report positioning. Cattle saw profit taking and maybe some reaction to the border opening to Mexican feeder cattle imports soon.
Rich Nelson with Allendale, Inc. says grain markets are seeing early pressure with a rebound in the U.S. dollar index back near recent highs, but also watching South American weather and ahead of USDA reports on Friday.
Matt Bennett, AgMarket.Net, says corn and soybeans came back from early profit taking pressure to end steady as trader position ahead of Friday’s USDA reports and watch South American weather.
Kent Beadle with Paradigm Futures says corn and soybeans are seeing profit taking and farmer selling after hitting chart resistance on Monday at previous highs and retreating.
Naomi Blohm of Total Farm Marketing says corn, soybeans and soybean meal saw fund buying and weather premium being added early in the session with hot and dry weather forecasts for 15 days out in Argentina and Southern Brazil.
Brad Kooima of Kooima Kooima Varilek says cattle futures recovered nicely from Friday’s selloff with some contracts making new highs for the move, pricing in record cash cattle trade. Grain markets are seeing fund buying with soybeans and meal leading on dry weather forecasts for Argentina.
Randy Martinson, Martinson Ag, says corn and soybeans saw early pressure as both markets ran up into chart resistance which triggered fund profit taking.
Allison Thompson with The Money Farm says corn and soybeans both ran up into chart resistance and are seeing some profit taking by technical traders.
Darin Newsom with Barchart says corn and soybeans were higher on technical buying and adding some weather premium with a hot dry extended forecast for Argentina and Southern Brazil. Cattle futures followed record cash in the South.
DuWayne Bosse, Bolt Marketing, says corn scored a new six month high close for the move on dryness in the extended forecast in Argentina and funds adding to their long position.
With strong demand fundamentals the corn market may be able to continue to march higher. Vince Boddicker with Farmers Trading Company says he’s not ruling out $5 corn but it will take several factors to push to that level.
Scott Varilek, Kooima Kooima Varilek, says cattle futures are extending gains after a higher week in the futures and with higher cash trade. Grains are seeing technical buying but dryness in Argentina is also a concern.
Tommy Grisafi with Nesvick Trading Company says the grain markets saw light holiday trade and rebalancing of portfolios end of year. However, the higher weekly closes were encouraging, especially corn at a six month high.
Garrett Toay, AgTraderTalk, says corn made six month highs and finally closed above the 200 day moving average which has been tough chart resistance.
Brad Kooima, Kooima Kooima Varilek, says the nearby live cattle were lower despite steady to higher cash and the divergence is frustrating. Corn climbs after closing at a six month high Friday, while soybeans fade. How long can these markets continue to move in opposite directions?
Jerry Gulke, president of the Gulke Group, says the weekly continuation chart corn is trading above the October high, the 50-day and the 200-day moving average. “The chart is telling us to have a little patience in this uptrending market,” he adds.
Chip Nellinger, Blue Reef Agri-Marketing says soybeans recovered off Thursday’s new contract lows on fund short covering and profit taking, plus market talk that China was in buying soybeans. Corn put in the highest weekly close in six months.
Grain markets are seeing value and technical buying but Kent Beadle of Paradigm Futures says the rebound in soybeans is supported by a recovery in the Brazilian Real.
Scott Varilek of Kooima Kooima Varilek says soybeans see a dead cat bounce off contract lows Thursday. Meanwhile, cattle futures end lower despite good early cash news. So is this topping action?
Darin Newsom, Senior Market Analyst with Barchart, says soybeans are trying to stage a dead cat bounce after making new contract lows, along with soy products. The stock market is also trying to recover.
What’s ahead for the grain prices the last few weeks of 2024? Rich Nelson with Allendale, Inc. says historical and seasonal tendencies are at play in the grain markets. However, South American weather will also be a focus.
Pro Farmer Editor Brian Grete, says soybeans fell with rain in Brazil and big crop forecasts, plus a disappointing NOPA crush report.