Market Analysis
Brad Kooima, Kooima Kooima Varilek, says grains try to hold early gains. Nearby live cattle futures made new highs for the move pushed by sharply higher cash in the North at mostly $196, the South was at mostly $191.
Jerry Gulke, president of the Gulke Group, says after the 200 million bushel cut to corn ending stocks in the December WASDE he wonders if USDA is preparing the marketplace for more of the same in the final January report?
Oliver Sloup, Blue Line Futures, says corn saw continued technical selling and profit taking after the inability to take out chart resistance.
Randy Martinson, Martinson Ag, says soybeans are seeing profit taking on South American weather and despite another 7.3 million bu. of export business this morning,
Bryan Doherty, Total Farm Marketing, says corn ended lower on a combination of profit taking and farmer selling after running into chart resistance.
Mark Schultz, NorthStar Commodity, says corn and soybeans are overbought and failed to get above resistance on the charts which is triggering profit taking. Live cattle make new highs for the move on sharply higher cash trade.
Alan Brugler of A&N Economics, LLC says corn started higher still digesting the bullish cut to ending stocks in the December WASDE but ran into chart resistance.
Kent Beadle, Paradigm Futures, says grains are extending gains from Tuesday on technical and fund buying as the markets. The markets are still digesting the bullish USDA report data for corn and even wheat.
Darren Frye, Water Street Solutions, says grains close higher after the WASDE and USDA’s surprise cut in corn ending stocks by 200 million bushels.
Matt Bennett with AgMarket.Net says the agency shocked the market in the December WASDE by lowering ending stocks on corn 200 million bu. to 1.738 billion bu., with an increase in demand.
Arlan Suderman, Chief Commodities Economist for Stone X, says corn and wheat ended higher on value buying after wheat hit contract lows last week. Soybeans continue to be under pressure with favorable weather in Brazil and basis levels below the U.S.
Brad Kooima, Kooima Kooima Varilek, says cattle are working in last week’s higher fed cash cattle trade. Grains are also mostly higher adding geopolitical risk premium and ahead of the WASDE.
The first full week of trading in December can be enlightening and Gulke Group president Jerry Gulke says this year is no exception, especially after the 2024 election. However, he thinks the bulk of the bearish news may be priced into the corn market.
Bryan Doherty, Total Farm Marketing, says March corn sees a chart breakout Friday above $4.35 and posts a higher weekly close, pricing in strong demand and lower expected ending stocks in Tuesday’s WASDE.
Scott Varilek, Kooima Kooima Varilek, says cattle are trying to recover after a poor technical close yesterday with the help of strong cash. Corn broke above chart resistance and is being pushed by strong demand.
Dave Chatterton, Strategic Farm Marketing, says the agricultural markets saw risk off technical selling. The sentiment of the grain market in particular is bearish right now due to uncertainty tied to trade and overall policy in the new administration.
DuWayne Bosse of Bolt Marketing says soybeans are consolidating with products, despite a 30,000 MT sale of bean oil to South Korea.
John Heinberg, Total Farm Marketing, says corn failed mid-session with conflicting information about guidance being delayed for the 45Z Clean Fuel Production Credits, but it also hit chart resistance.
Brad Kooima, Kooima Kooima Varilek, says cattle recover Tuesday after a KS plant closure headline hurt the market. Grains see a technical bounce with a lower dollar.
Kevin Duling, KD Investors, says more tariff talk over the weekend from President-elect Trump, this time on the BRICS nations, had fund or managed money traders nervous again and pushed the dollar higher.
Jim McCormick with AgMarket.Net says Mexico, Canada and China are the top three export customers of the U.S. and account for 40% of total exports. So, if these countries retaliate it could be devasting for trade and ag markets.
Mike Minor, Professional Ag Marketing, says the markets shook off tariff talk and saw positioning end of month and before first notice day Friday.
Jim McCormick, AgMarket.Net, says corn and soybeans slid on possible tariffs being placed on Mexico, Canada and China. Wheat ends higher on short covering.
Randy Martinson, Martinson Ag, says market reaction has been muted to possible 25% tariffs on Mexico and Canada and 10% on China on the first day of the Trump administration.
Kent Beadle with Paradigm Futures says soybeans built on Friday’s bullish reversal with talk China is looking for more U.S. soybeans. Cattle had a volatile session with a bearish Cattle on Feed Report and sorting through import restrictions on Mexican cattle due to New World Screwworm.
Brad Kooima, Kooima Kooima Varilek, says cattle futures shook off the bearish Cattle on Feed Report numbers with an announcement of New World Screwworm detected in Mexico. Soybeans built on the key reversal Friday on talk of China buying U.S. soybeans.
Tomm Pfitzenmaier with Summit Commodity Brokerage says farmers need to use the strong basis levels, especially on corn, to make some cash sales. However, there are options they can use to take advantage of a rally later on.
The question becomes whether threats of tariffs include barring used cooking oil imports outright or merely tariffing the product, especially from China.
Don Roose U.S. Commodities says grains were under pressure on technical selling, a lack of bullish news and the higher dollar. March soybeans made new contract lows with the lower soybean oil, favorable weather in Brazil and tariff fears.
Scott Varilek of Kooima Kooima Varilek says cattle futures are being led by the feeders and the cash market which is on fire out in the country. Grains are sliding early despite solid export business.