Market Analysis
Scott Varilek, Kooima Kooima Varilek, says cattle futures need to take out the next layer of chart resistance to move higher. Grains continue to add war and weather premium and that shouldn’t change unless the WASDE is extremely bearish.
John Heinberg with Total Farm Marketing says the row crop markets are seeing continued pressure from three main fundamentals.
Darin Newsom with Barchart says wheat is higher adding war premium but soybeans and corn are seeing harvest pressure and trading South American weather.
Brian Grete, Pro Farmer, says wheat was supported by light fund short covering as traders were adding in some geopolitical risk premium.
Brad Kooima, Kooima Kooima Varilek, says the cash cattle trade will likely be steady this week which may mean the futures could stall out. He thinks the party could be over in row crops.
Jerry Gulke, president of The Gulke Group, thinks the party is over in the grains, at least for now, due to several key factors.
Don Roose, U.S. Commodities, says several factors combined to pressure the grain markets Friday. Whether or not the rally is over depends on global weather and the October WASDE.
Shawn Hackett, Hackett Financial Advisors, says grains are in transition right now as the funds have likely covered most of their short positions and are looking for signals for their next move.
DuWayne Bosse, Bolt Marketing, says grains saw profit taking after running up into some chart resistance.
Scott Varilek, Kooima Kooima Varilek, says cattle futures are well supported on higher cash. Grains seeing pressure as funds may be out of ammunition.
Ted Seifried, Zaner Ag Hedge, says funds have covered most of their record short position in grains and they are not likely to go long.
Tomm Pfitzenmaier with Summit Commodity Brokerage, says historically, when corn and soybeans have a fall rally in August and September the markets top out in the October.
Randy Martinson, Martinson Ag, says funds continue to cover shorts in the grain markets but there are some fundamentals also helping to support the rally.
Kent Beadle, Paradigm Futures says corn continues to move higher on fund buying and tighter corn stocks from USDA’s Quarterly Stocks Report. He thinks corn could eventually take out resistance on the charts and move higher.
Chip Nellinger, Blue Reef Agri-Marketing, says most of the strength in corn and wheat was due to end of quarter fund short covering.
Jim McCormick, AgMarket.Net says the corn stocks were friendly under expectations at 1.76 billion bushels due to better feed demand and that data is supportive for the corn market.
Joe Kooima, Kooima Kooima Varilek, says grains and livestock futures are trading mixed as traders position and take profits end of quarter and await the USDA report numbers out at 11 am.
Naomi Blohm, Total Farm Marketing, says corn and soybeans have rallied into chart resistance and will need three main fundamental factors to combine to keep prices moving higher.
Vince Boddicker with Farmers Trading Company says soybeans continue to see Brazil weather concerns and technical buying. When soybeans put in an early harvest low they tend to rally around 80 cents and have cleared that mark already. However, if Brazil stays dry the market could continue to price that in.
Scott Varilek, Kooima Kooima Varilek, says cattle futures reversed with $2 higher cash in Southern feedlot areas. Grain markets ended lower as fund short covering was overrun by an increase in farmer selling.
Jerry Gulke wonders if the unintended consequences from failed biofuels policies are really unintended at all.
Matt Bennett, AgMarket.Net, says the market has been resilient as the funds are exiting shorts and taking profits end of quarter.
Grains started out mostly lower Wednesday but Darin Newsom with Barchart says they continue to see buying on the dips as funds are covering shorts and taking profits.
Kevin Duling, KD Investors, says it wasn’t the best close for the grains as the markets ran up into some chart resistance and are starting to look a little tired.
Randy Martinson, Martinson Ag, says funds are covering shorts and there is new technical buying as well as the markets have cleared some key chart resistance.
Allison Thompson with The Money Farm says a combination of factors drove soybeans higher including South American weather and China economic news. Corn and wheat followed. Cattle futures also made new highs for the move pushed by cash.
Brad Kooima of Kooima Kooima Varilek says cattle are hitting new highs for the move after a chart breakout and pushed by stronger cash last week. Grains are all strong early with soybeans making near term highs on the convergence of several fundamentals.
Jim McCormick, AgMarket.Net, says corn and soybeans ended lower on Friday on farmer selling of both old and new crop inventory. However, both corn and wheat had lower weekly closes which could indicate a trend change.
Scott Varilek, Kooima Kooima Varilek, says cattle are seeing a correction heading into the Cattle on Feed Report. Corn and soybeans are seeing hedge pressure and selling tied to extended forecasts showing rain in Brazil.
Mike Minor, Professional Ag Marketing, says corn and soybeans saw pressure from harvest and better South American weather prospects. Cattle and hogs soared on the heels of the higher stock market.