Market Analysis
Cattle futures recover after Monday’s chart damage, hogs consolidating for the 5th day. Soybeans build on Monday’s reversal, while corn is consolidating above support. Brad Kooima, Kooima Kooima Varilek, has more.
Brian Grete, editor of Pro Farmer says, “Soybeans saw mostly corrective buying as funds have built a short position and may be covering some of those contracts heading into the WASDE report on Thursday.”
Grains mixed as soybeans see corrective buying, wheat falls on dollar strength, corn caught in the middle. Funds take profits in cattle after hitting chart resistance, hogs consolidate. Brian Grete, ProFarmer, has more.
Grains Start Lower as Funds Add to Near Record Short Position: Cattle Extend Gains, Hogs Consolidate
Grains lower as funds continue to sell on Brazil harvest pressure & rain in Argentina. Cattle extend gains with higher cash ideas, hogs see profit taking & hedge pressure. Kent Beadle, Paradigm Futures has details.
“The fund selling in grains isn’t just about China and Brazil, but also the carry in the markets. That is your theme,” says John Payne with Hedge Point Global Markets.
AgDay TV Markets Now: John Payne with Hedge Point Global Markets says soybeans and corn down for the week with soybeans back below $12.
Shipping disruptions and higher freight costs are to blame for the basis collapse and the large carries in all the major grains, says Jerry Gulke.
Corn and soybeans continue to see fund selling, while funds are covering shorts in wheat. Outside markets respond to Jobs data. Cattle try to extend gains pushed by higher cash. Darin Newsom, Barchart, has more.
Will cattle prices set new record highs in 2024? Kevin Good, CattleFax has their price outlook for fed cattle and feeders.
AgDay TV Markets Now: Kevin Good of CattleFax says record fed and feeder cattle prices are expected in 2024.
Cattle open higher in reaction to USDA’s confirmation of a small herd and no signs of rebuilding, Hogs see profit taking, grains back lower as funds return as sellers. Scott Varilek, Kooima Kooima Varilek, has more.
Brad Kooima of Kooima Kooima Varilek says USDA semi-annual cattle inventory report came as no surprise as it confirmed continued tight numbers and no herd rebuilding.
Grains down as funds turn back to selling with China demand concerns, weak Brazil bean basis, bearish outside markets. Cattle & hogs see end of month profit taking to start. Randy Martinson, Martinson Ag, has more.
Any strength in the grain markets continues to be sold by the fund and algorithm traders according to DuWayne Bosse, Bolt Marketing.
AgDay TV Markets Now: DuWayne Bosse, Bolt Marketing says funds have a near record short position in the grain markets. It is only surpassed by May of 2019 which was in the middle of the China trade war.
March soybeans closed below long-term chart support of $12.00, the first time soybeans have been under that level since June of 2023. Toay says that now opens the door for $11.76 to be tested.
AgDay TV Markets Now: Garrett Toay, Ag Trader Talk, says a “perfect storm” fueled the risk off selling in grain markets on Monday,
Grain and livestock futures see risk off commodity wide selling. China news, Middle East war escalation and rumors of Brazil soybean imports hit the markets. Kent Beadle, Paradigm Futures has more.
Funds bought grains midweek after China announced economic stimulus, but they jumped right back out on Friday after Asian markets failed to rally.” Mike Zuzulo, Global Commodity Analytics, says its due to demand fears.
AgDay TV Markets Now: Mike Zuzulo, Global Commodity Analytics, discusses why funds sold grains to end the week but bought cattle and hogs futures.
“I don’t think we are going to see huge losses in prices from here forward, but these are not exciting prices,” says Jerry Gulke, president of the Gulke Group.
Grains consolidating as funds are back in selling end of week. Cattle make new highs again pushed by higher cash. Crude oil stalls after 9-weeks highs Thursday. Darin Newsom, Barchart, has details.
AgDay TV Markets Now: Vince Boddicker, Farmers Trading Company, explains why the soybean complex sank on Thursday and why cattle and hogs made new highs for the move.
The collapse of soybean basis levels in Brazil tanked the soy complex. Vince Boddicker, Farmers Trading Company says, “People are saying with the basis dropping that hard maybe the Brazilian crop isn’t that tight.”
Chip Flory warns that as more crush capacity comes online, the soybean market might realize it waited too long to bid for 2024 soybean acres.
Cattle try to extend gains after strong chart action awaiting cash. Hogs see follow through buying on China news. Corn & beans see profit taking w/weak exports. Scott Varilek, Kooima Kooima Varilek, has more.
AgDay TV Markets Now: Oliver Sloup, Blue Line Futures, explains what drove the rally in grain and livestock futures Wednesday and if it can keep going?
Grains end higher as corrective buying continues but the lower dollar and SA wx were also supportive. Cattle and hogs made new highs for the move on fund buying. Oliver Sloup, Blue Line Futures has details.
Grains start higher on continued corrective buying but soybeans have run into chart resistance. Cattle and hogs see following through buying after chart breakouts yesterday. Randy Martinson, Martinson Ag, has more.
“While soybeans have had a nice break higher the last four days, corn is moving sideways.” Dave Chatterton, Strategic Marketing says upside in corn is being limited by the 2.16-billion-bushel carryover.