Market Analysis
Soybeans scored new lows for the move on the last trading day of 2025. Randy Martinson says the market saw technical selling with end of quarter and end of year positioning and favorable weather in Brazil.
Rich Nelson with Allendale, Inc. says there is a general lack of news for the grain markets so some of the pressure is coming from end of the quarter and end of the year positioning by traders.
Kevin Duling with KD Investors says some algorithm trades moved the grain market with year end position squaring but there was also spillover from macro markets like gold and silver.
Joe Kooima with Kooima Kooima Varilek says the live and feeder cattle futures board has remained sideways since around Dec. 11. However, there is one thing that could break that trend.
Mike Minor with Professional Ag Marketing says the grains saw a Santa Claus rally on technical buying as under light volume its easier to move a market. Hogs reacted to the bearish Hogs and Pigs Report.
Dan Basse with Ag Resource Company says the next focus for the soybean market in 2026 will be South American weather and what does China do on long term soybean purchases.
Grains are quiet Tuesday morning. Volume is light as we are into holiday trading already says DuWayne Bosse of Bolt Marketing.
Arlan Suderman with StoneX, Inc. says some of Monday’s buying was tied to money flow and end of the year profit taking he says. The higher energy market was also supportive of the grains.
Live and feeder cattle futures made new highs for the move Monday morning after a strong close Friday and higher weekly closes. However, the big catalyst is the bullish USDA Cattle on Feed Report data according to Rich Nelson of Allendale, Inc.
Jim McCormick with AgMarket.Net says the slide in soybeans has been a result of prices getting too high in anticipation of the China trade deal. Now prices are lower than before the purchases were announced. He’s hopeful a low is close.
Scott Varilek, Kooima Kooima Varilek says live cattle futures are higher despite some lower Northern cash trade. However, this week the trend has been sideways with the market unable to take out chart resistance.
Ted Seifried with Zaner Ag Hedge says rumors of China purchases circulate nearly every time the corn market rallies.
Darin Newsom, senior market analyst with Barchart, Inc. says corn is seeing some short covering but demand has also been a factor with ethanol production at a record level this week and exports continuing to run at a record pace.
Naomi Blohm with Total Farm Marketing says soybeans have also confirmed the head and shoulders top and are working lower completing the shoulder.
Bryan Doherty with Total Farm Marketing says soybeans have served as an anchor for the grain markets on a host of bearish news items and fund liquidation.
As farmers look ahead to 2026, grain markets are sending mixed signals based on record corn exports, large supplies, federal payments and ongoing China trade uncertainty.
Don Roose with U.S. Commodities says the soybeans and wheat made new lows for the move on Monday. Grains have been suffering from a lack of bullish news and for soybeans China fatigue is also a factor.
Brad Kooima with Kooima Kooima Varilek says the cattle futures are overbought after last week’s higher weekly closes. So this is a healthy correction.
Shawn Hackett with Hackett Financial Advisors says part of the pressure in soybeans was technical selling but the market is also starting to trade the big crop potential in South America.
Scott Varilek of Kooima Kooima Varilek says cattle futures are finding support from sharply higher fed cash trade. So, if that can continue he is mildly optimistic about futures continuing to push higher.
Mark Schultz with Northstar Commodity says the $10,80 level has been strong support in soybeans and held with the help of more daily export sales.
John Zanker with Farmers Keeper Financial says soybeans could not hold early gains despite more export business and may be eyeing the gap area from Oct. 24.
Randy Martinson with Martinson Ag says early pressure in soybeans came from follow through selling and more confusion on China’s purchase commitments. However, soybeans bounced off of strong technical support at the days lows.
Jon Scheve with Scheve Grain says the soybean market is reading the USTR comments as there is no real deal and actually has been trading that way for a while now.
Brian Grete with Commstock Investments says he was a bit surprised by how aggressive USDA was in raising corn exports to 3.2 billion bu. which is a record.
Alan Brugler with A&N Economics, Inc. says the soybean market continues to be plagued by uncertainty over China’s soybean purchase commitments and a close below $11 projects lower prices.
Brad Kooima says both live and feeder cattle futures markets struggled Monday as the huge recovery off the lows put contracts up into 50% retracement levels.
Soybean futures ended sharply lower on Friday, with the January contract down 33¢ for the week. Matt Bennett with AgMarket.Net says the poor close is tied to mixed messages about a signed soybean agreement with China and sales progress.
Scott Varilek with Kooima Kooima Varilek says Thursday saw the volume of live sale prices at $220, up $10 from last week but even some $222 developed in Iowa.
Tommy Grisafi with Nesvick Trading says bull markets need to be fed daily and so corn and soybeans would need a combination of factors to converge to retest the November highs.