What factors will impact crop mixes? Market analysts share their 2022 acreage predictions and insights.
JON SCHEVE
Superior Feed Ingredients President of Grain
I believe 80% of farmers will not change their rotation strategy under any circumstance. Those who do only change 10% of their acres, but just a few farmers changing a few acres can add up. I look for winter and spring wheat to each gain at least 1 million acres. Oats, cotton and sunflowers together could gain 1 million acres. Fertilizer prices have tripled from just over a year ago, but that doesn’t translate to less corn. The central Corn Belt will probably push for more corn acres. The eastern edge of the Corn Belt could see a big switch to soybeans, as well
as the non-irrigated areas in the western Corn Belt.
JOE VACLAVIK
Standard Grain President
Based on my customer survey, I anticipate only a marginal change versus 2021. I’d estimate 2022 U.S. corn acres at 92.3 million and soybean acres at 88.2 million. Fertilizer and input prices have been the big story in regard to a potential decline in corn acreage. In talking with customers, however, corn still pencils better than soybeans for many. Many have locked up fertilizer needs. Others do not stray from their rotation. Spring wheat and oats should gain some spring acres based on new-crop pricing. Cost of production is rising drastically across the board, which means elevated risk. Keep an eye on budgets, costs and manage accordingly.
BILL BIEDERMANN
AgMarket.Net Hedging Strategist
We looked at acres the last time fertilizer prices move radically, which was 2007/08. In 2008, corn acres lost 7.5 million and soybean acres jumped 10.9 million. If we simply take the 2008 acreage shift for face value, we have a problem. A decrease in corn acres typically creates an increase in yield, whereas an increase in soybean acres creates a sub-trend yield. When we put those numbers in a 2022 supply-and-demand matrix, corn ending stocks fall below pipeline requirements and soybean ending stocks create a glut. Obviously, that will not happen, so what needs to change to prevent a large acreage shift? Price. The soybean:corn ratio will need to move closer to 2.1 to shift acres.
For 2022, the soybean:corn price ratio favors corn over soybeans, says Brian Grete, editor of Pro Farmer. “But given the surge in fertilizer prices and strong 2021 soybean yields, the ratio won’t be the best indicator of acres for 2022.”
