Earlier this year it would have seemed impossible to believe Brazil’s corn production could reach record levels. Yet here we are.
Brazil’s second corn crop, also known as the safrinha, is expected to produce a record 3.465 million bushels in the 2021/22 crop season. That’s 45% higher than last season’s 2.391 million bushels, when Brazil was affected by drought, according to Conab.
The University of Illinois’ Joana Colussi and Gary Schnitkey recently crunched the production data in a farmdoc daily piece: Brazil Expecting Historic Safrinha Despite Less Than Ideal Weather
“Expected good yields and an increase in planted area are key factors driving the expected record,” the two write. “Because domestic and global prices for corn are expected to continue to increase, Brazilian farmers are planting corn in more areas. The start of this year’s harvest coincided with the news that China, in pursuit of improved food security in the wake of the Ukraine crisis, has signed an agreement with Brazil to increase cooperation in corn trade.”
More than 70% of the corn produced in Brazil is from the safrinha crop, which is planted after the soybean harvest in January and February.
Safrinha corn harvest is 5% complete, according to the latest Conab report. Harvest will continue through September.
Dry Weather Conditions
Seasonal drought has been impacting the Brazilian corn crop. The main areas affected by dry weather are west Bahia; north and northwest Minas Gerais; all of Goiás; southeast Mato Grosso; east Mato Grosso do Sul; and northwest São Paulo.
Despite low soil moisture in some regions, the early planting of second-crop corn allowed crops to develop better than the last crops in most regions, according to the Conab.
Yield declines in drought-affected states are offset by gains in other states. Brazil is expected to have yields of about 85 bu. per acre, 32% higher than last year and 5% higher than the 10-year average.
A key factor in safrinha variability is the timing of the onset of the dry season in Brazil. If the onset is early or if safrinha is planted late, the probability of dry weather negatively impacting yields is higher. By nature, the second corn crop is risky.
Beyond high yields, a nearly 10% increase in corn acres will also help Brazil break a record in safrinha production. The area planted this year exceeded the 40 million acres mark for the first time.
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