Pro Farmer Analysis
The broader economic and geopolitical situation seemed to weigh upon cattle futures Thursday.
Russia will provide farmers with short-term loans with preferential rates worth over 160 billion rubles to ensure they have access to the inputs for a successful planting season, according to Prime Minister Mishustin.
With the recent Russian invasion of Ukraine, farmers should consider revenue protection crop insurance at a high level, according to agricultural economists on the University of Illinois farmdoc website.
Oil prices are expected to increase to an average of $117 per barrel for March, up $20 from its February average, EIA said in its Short-Term Energy Outlook.
Grain and cotton prices will likely continue to push higher, Goldman Sachs said in a note to investors and reported by Bloomberg.
U.S., Britain and Shell Oil halt Russian oil imports
China’s Minister of Agriculture and Rural Affairs Tang Renjian reported the country’s winter wheat condition could be the worst in history.
More countries are putting in measures to guarantee grain supplies.
Ukraine calls for Russian export halt to include oil
Wheat buyers from the Middle East/Mediterranean region and North Africa are switching their wheat purchases to various European countries . . .
Russia is the second-largest producer of ammonia, urea, and potash and the fifth largest producer of processed phosphates.
May soybean futures fell 7 1/4 cents to $16.60 1/2 after tumbling from a morning high at $16.88 1/2. The most-active contract still gained 76 cents this week.
The head of trading for CBH Group, Australia’s largest coop, expects more demand in the short and medium-term due to the loss of exports from the Black Sea area, Bloomberg reported.
Nearby soybeans gained on spillover from the wheat market’s steep rally but faded on profit-taking and indications that stepped-up Chinese demand and a South American crop shortfall are factored into prices.
Egypt looking at plans for wheat procurement
The Biden administration may have to open the Conservation Reserve Program (CRP) to cropping this year because of grain shortages that could result from the Russian invasion of Ukraine.
The 2022 spring crop insurance price for corn is $5.90, $1.32 higher than last year.
China is heading into peak demand season for many commodities.
U.S. open to Russian oil sanctions, just not yet
Corn buyers, especially those in Benelux, Iberia, the Middle East and North Africa, are changing their purchases to the EU from Ukraine due to the Russian invasion, according to traders.
Major global grain producers and exporters Russia and Ukraine remain in a full-scale war with no end in sight and that’s keeping the grain futures markets unnerved.
IEA members agree to release 60 million barrels of oil
Ukrainian ports will remain closed until the Russian attack is over, according to the head of Ukraine’s Maritime Administration Vitaliy Kindrativ.
Brazil’s soybean harvest was 44% complete as of Feb. 24, according to ag consultancy AgRural.
Talks lead to no end to Russia/Ukraine fighting
Russia’s attack on Ukraine is expected to halt the processing and export of Ukrainian oilseed crops for at least one month, curbing flows of sunflower seed to the European Union, consultancy Strategie Grains said.
During his press conference at USDA’s Ag Outlook Forum, Ag Secretary Tom Vilsack said it was “too early to tell” what the impacts will be from the Russian invasion. . .