Farmers and ranchers across the Plains are dealing with the aftermath of devastating wildfires.
According to Drovers, fast-moving Ranger Road Fire has already scorched more than 283,000 acres in northern Oklahoma and southern Kansas since last week. The Oklahoma Department of Agriculture said Monday it’s now 65% contained, but the devastation has charred thousands of pasture and farmland, also killing an unknown number of cattle.
Flames spread across Oklahoma, Texas, Kansas, Colorado and New Mexico since last week. While March through April is typically wildfire season in Kansas, conditions across the Plains are creating conditions that are fueling the flames.
According to Brian Bledsoe of Brian Bledsoe Weather, the devastation is the result of a “worst-case scenario” pattern that has been building for months.
A Windy Season Meets Dry Fuels
Bledsoe says in order to understand why conditions are so ripe for wildfires this year, the calendar alone raises red flags.
“From February through early to mid-April, that’s traditionally when we see some of these higher-end wind events,” he explains. “But it’s not just about the wind. It’s about what the wind and fire combine to burn.”
The Southern Plains experienced adequate to above-average moisture over parts of the region during the past year. However, that broader window masks a sharp turn toward dryness in recent months.
When looking at the last 180 days, moisture held on in portions of the Oklahoma Panhandle and southwest Kansas. But conditions deteriorated quickly moving south into the Texas Panhandle. Over the past 90 days, dryness expanded northward into the heart of the wildfire zone.
Zooming in further, the last 30 days tell the most concerning story. Some locations in the Oklahoma Panhandle and southwest Kansas have received just 5% to 20% of average precipitation.
That rapid drying followed a warm-season growing period that produced ample vegetation. Once cured and left without additional moisture or snow cover, those grasses became prime fuel.
“You grow up all that vegetation during the warm season, then you dry it out and don’t get anything else to keep it somewhat wet so it doesn’t burn. It’s a perfect recipe,” Bledsoe says.
Wildfires in the Plains
The setup isn’t without precedent. In late February 2024, the Smokehouse Creek Fire burned more than a million acres in the Canadian River Valley of the Texas Panhandle under similar conditions, which were strong winds, above-average warmth and critically dry fuels.
“This is not unprecedented for the Western High Plains this time of year,” Bledsoe notes. “It’s just the worst-case scenario when you put all those things together.”
Little Relief in the Forecast
Unfortunately for producers hoping for moisture, the near-term outlook offers limited help.
Over the next 10 days, much of the U.S. is expected to trend drier than average. The only notably wet areas are projected to be in Northern California and the Pacific Northwest. Meanwhile, above-average temperatures are likely to persist across much of the Plains, with colder air remaining locked in Canada.
“This pattern is not going to be that favorable to grace those areas that we’re dealing with the wildfires with any real significant moisture,” Bledsoe says. “In fact, you see a pretty good chunk of the U.S. that will likely see just drier than average conditions for that 10-day period. Not necessarily dry for everybody, but drier than average. The only really wet areas will be in Northern California and the Pacific Northwest. And we’re going to revert back to the warmth too.”
Looking ahead to March, extended European model guidance suggests a continuation of the pattern: dry conditions across California, Arizona, New Mexico and much of Texas and the Southwest High Plains, with wetter conditions developing farther east.
March is often a volatile month, Bledsoe says, bringing sharp contrasts between “haves” and “have-nots” in terms of precipitation.
“You’re going to the haves farther east, and then areas farther south and west that have been kind of shut out are probably going struggle a little bit. And time, I know it only takes one storm to change this narrative here in the Western High Plains to cover the ground with snow or put more moisture in the ground or kind of turn the corner,” he says. “But right now this pattern is not conducive to bringing one of those significant storms into the fray.”
Bledsoe knows more than anyone that the forecast can change, but the set-up right now doesn’t look favorable for moisture in the Plains through March.
“It only takes one storm to change the narrative, to cover the ground with snow or put meaningful moisture back into the soil,” he says. “But right now, this pattern is not conducive to bringing one of those significant storms into the fray.”
For livestock producers and farmers across the High Plains, that means continued vigilance. With cured grasses, persistent wind and limited precipitation in the forecast, wildfire risk may remain elevated as the region moves deeper into its traditional spring wind season.
