Pro Farmer Analysis

Possible talks surface as the Russian invasion continues
USDA now predicts an $11.0 billion ag trade surplus for fiscal year (FY) 2022. That is up $500 million from its prior outlook and $2.1 billion above FY 2021.
Iowa Attorney General Tom Miller announced Iowa State University agriculture economist John Crespi will conduct an economic summary of fertilizer markets and the rapid prices increases.
U.S. and world respond to Russian invasion of Ukraine
USDA released is initial 2022-23 balance sheets at the start of its annual Ag Outlook Forum this morning.
A proposed decree between Growth Energy and EPA would require them to set the final Renewable Fuel Standard (RFS) levels for 2021 and 2022 by June 3, 2022.
USDA will release its 2022-23 projections on Thursday morning at its Outlook Forum, including its 2022 acreage forecasts.
Nearby winter wheat futures soared to the highest levels in over nine years on concern Russia’s escalating aggression toward Ukraine will disrupt the global grain trade.
Investments in commodity markets highest since 2007
A top Indian commodities trader plans to increase ethanol production by 60,000 liters per day after purchasing 100,000 liters per day capacity ethanol plant.
The shipment broke the record by 2,271 MT set in 2020.
Nearby soybean futures rose to a nine-month high as escalating Russia/Ukraine concerns fueled broad strength across commodity markets.
Pork stocks build less than normal, beef inventories rise contra-seasonally
Corn futures ended the week near seven-month highs behind spillover support from gains in soybeans and ongoing concerns that a potential Russian invasion of Ukraine my disrupt global grain trade.
Due to negative crush margins, some soybean crushing plants in China are suspending operations, according to industry sources.
The International Grains Council (IGC) slashed its 2021-22 world soybean production estimate to 353 million metric tons (MMT). . .
Chinese soybean processors have canceled 10 Brazilian soybean cargoes since last week, according to sources cited by Bloomberg.
March SRW wheat rose 17 1/2 cents to $7.98. March HRW wheat rose 15 cents to $8.23. March spring wheat gained 5 1/4 cents to $9.57 1/4.
China cancels 10 Brazil soybean cargoes
USDA Secretary Tom Vilsack wants the Department of Justice (DOJ) to ensure seed companies and other input suppliers are not using their market power and current conditions to raise prices unfairly.
With a forecast for one more week of hot and dry weather conditions and then a shift to more rain, Argentina’s crop stress might be near the peak, according to World Weather Inc.
In front of the Senate Committee on the Environment and Public Works, the biofuels industry stressed the importance of the Renewable Fuel Standard (RFS) to a clean energy policy.
April lean hog futures rose $1.25 to $105.40, the highest settlement for a nearby contract since prices topped $110.00 in August.
Russia/Ukraine update
China can reduce its soybean demand by 30 MMT by continuing to promote lower soymeal rations in feed and using alternative proteins, the official Xinhua news agency reported, citing unnamed agriculture officials.
Members of the National Oilseed Processor Association (NOPA) crushed 182.2 million bu. of soybeans in January, down 4.2 million bu. from the December record . . .
Crop insurance price guarantees might be higher than last year for corn and soybeans, according to USDA Chief Economist Seth Meyer at the Crop Insurance Convention.
Anticipation of continued cash market strength boosted live cattle futures, as illustrated by the February contract’s $2.50 premium to last week’s live steer average of $140.48.
Crop Consultant Dr. Michael Cordonnier says he was holding out hope that production losses due to drought in southern Brazil would be partially offset by stronger yields in central and northern areas.
March corn futures rose 4 3/4 cents to $6.55 3/4, the highest close for a nearby contract since $6.83 on July 14. December corn rose 3 1/2 cents to $5.98 1/4 after posting a contract high.
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